Arizona vs. Houston

Not all college basketball games are created equal, especially on a day when there are almost 150 of them. There are two games that specifically stand out in a big way and one of them is a conference clash in the Big 12 with Arizona vs. Houston. This is a No. 4 vs. No. 2 matchup, as No. 3 vs. No. 1 in Duke vs. Michigan means that we’ll have the top four teams in the nation in action and they’re going to be playing against each other.

While the AP Poll has Arizona No. 4 and Houston No. 2, KenPom has Arizona No. 3 and Houston No. 5, while Bart Torvik has the Wildcats No. 3 and Cougars No. 2. Any way you slice it, this is a heavyweight tilt and a game that could very well decide a No. 1 seed on Selection Sunday.

This preview focuses solely on this game, but we’ve got daily best bets from Greg Peterson, as well as his daily spread and total projections, picks six days a week from Adam Burke, and men’s and women’s college basketball projections five days a week from Tyler Shoemaker, the proprietor of the T Shoe Index.

This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of February 20, 4:30 pm PT; check out our Circa Betting Splits and DraftKings Betting Splits.

Arizona vs. Houston (-4.5, 142.5)

Embed from Getty Images

3 p.m. ET (ABC)

Somebody will have to lose this game, but these two teams are not accustomed to losing this season. Arizona enters with a 24-2 record and Houston is 23-3 and when you look at the losses, the Wildcats have lost by 4 and 3 and the Cougars have lost by 3, 4, and 3, so we’re talking about a couple of teams that could very well be undefeated had a play or two gone their way.

They are conference foes, but this is the one and only regular season meeting. Thus far, both of Arizona’s losses are in Big 12 competition and so are two of Houston’s, so that also makes this a battle for first place in the conference with four regular season games left after this one. The difference between being the No. 1 and No. 2 seed in the Big 12 Conference Tournament probably won’t be that significant, but a Quadrant 1-A win like this is likely to be the difference between being a No. 1 or a No. 2 seed in the NCAA Tournament and that could be extremely significant.

Of course, with Arizona’s tourney history under Tommy Lloyd, it might not matter at all. The Wildcats have not made it past the Sweet 16, despite being a No. 1 seed once, No. 2 seed twice, and a No. 4 seed. Houston also had two Sweet 16 exits as a No. 1 seed before making it all the way to the National Championship Game last season as a No. 1 seed.

But, that’s all a discussion for another day because it’s all about this meeting here and now. While we all think of Houston as a defensive stalwart – and they are – this year’s Cougars actually lead the Big 12 in adjusted offensive efficiency in conference games. They are second in adjusted defensive efficiency. It is actually Arizona who leads the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency. The Wildcats are fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency, while the Cougars are second in the defensive department in that metric.

However, it should be pointed out that Houston having the lowest TO% in the conference is a big reason why they are atop the adjusted efficiency column. From a shooting standpoint, the Cougars are just sixth in eFG%, sitting fourth in 2P% and eighth in 3P%. Arizona has the second-lowest TO% on offense in the conference and leads in 2P%. What holds the Wildcats back a bit is that they rank 10th in 3P%. Houston is a better 3-point shooting team and they take a lot more of them than the Wildcats do.

So, the shot selection between the two teams is going to be a key element in this game. Arizona is stunningly efficient on the inside, but they don’t shoot many 3s. Their 26.7% 3P Rate is among the lowest in the country. Similarly, Houston’s rate of shot attempts at the rim is among the lowest in the country. They live and die with jump shots. Arizona wants to get inside and try to have success on high-percentage looks.

Unfortunately, Koa Peat is not going to play here. He’s shooting 71% on Close Twos as defined by Torvik and leads the team in those types of shot attempts. The Wildcats have plenty of good finishers, but Peat is the one who really forces the issue down low. His 36 dunks easily lead the team as well. In that respect, Houston catches a bit of a break here and that’s part of the reason why this line is where it is, even though the two teams excel in so many areas.

Peat doesn’t do it alone, though, as he’s one of five Wildcats in double figures on a nightly basis. That includes 7-foot-2 Motiejus Krivas, who will have to shoulder more of the load down low in Peat’s absence. On the Houston front, they only have three guys who average double figures, paced by Kingston Flemings with 16.6 PPG and Emanuel Sharp with 16.5 PPG. Those guys are both just shy of 39% from 3.

Arizona vs. Houston Prediction

Normally I’m skeptical of Houston because of their shot selection. They take a lot of mid-range jumpers at the expense of being unable to play down low in the post and those are often higher-risk, lower-reward shots. However, with Peat unavailable for Arizona, that levels the shot selection playing field a bit. Given that Arizona really doesn’t shoot a lot of 3s and Houston does, Arizona being forced into more jumpers puts them out of rhythm and that is to Houston’s favor.

Pick: Houston -4.5

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the college basketball games on our Pro Picks Page.

See our College Basketball Page for more previews and predictions.

The post Arizona vs. Houston College Basketball Prediction February 21, 2026 appeared first on VSiN.