Let’s take a short trek down I-85 and take a look at the Atlanta Falcons over/under win total for upcoming the 2025 NFL season. Currently the falcons regular season win total is listed at 7.5 (-130 over; +110 under per ESPN), and they are currently favored in 6 of their 17 games. Their game against the Panthers in Week 3 they are only slight underdogs. Using the records from last season, the Falcons have the 17th hardest schedule, or 15th easiest depending on how you want to look at it, with opponents having a combined winning percentage of .478.


Beginning of a new chapter in Atlanta
The Falcons will be rolling out Michael Penix Jr as their starting quarterback, unless there is something drastic that changes between now and the start of the season. Penix did start 6 games for the Falcons last year, but this will be his first full season as a starter in the NFL. This change can be looked at as both a positive or a negative when looking at their season win total, as Penix lacks NFL experience. With that being said, defensive coordinators around the league have minimal NFL tape to refer to, so there will be a learning curve for defenses around the league starting out.


Offensive outlook
With Atlanta’s 2025 draft/offseason acquisitions primarily focusing on the defensive side of the ball, the offense will largely look the same from last year. Last season the Falcons were 6th in yards per game with a 369.8 yard average, with 239.3 of those yards coming through the air, and 130.5 yards per game on the ground. With Offensive Coordinator Zac Robinson entering his second year with the team, they will look to continue gelling as an offense under this scheme.

The offensive line came off a great season last year, as they only allowed for a 32 % pressure rate (9th in NFL), and a 5.4% sack rate (7th in NFL), though it is important to note Kirk Cousins and Michael Penix Jr got rid of the ball in 2.61 seconds on average. One area the offensive line will need to improve on is run blocking, as they finished 20th last season in run block win rate. If the offense truly wants to take the next step, they will need a breakout year from Bijan Robinson, and that starts up front. If they are unable to establish an effective run game, they will have a hard time surpassing the 7.5 game threshold.

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Defensive Outlook
Defensive minded Head Coach Raheem Morris will be entering his second season, and will be alongside a familiar face in Atlanta, with new Defensive Coordinator Jeff Ulbrich. Last season the Falcons were 23rd in the NFL in yards allowed per game with a 345.2 yard average, allowing 224.5 yards per game through the air, and 120.6 yards per game on the ground. As previously stated, the Falcons spent the offseason trying to address these issues by drafting first rounders Jalon Walker, and James Pearce Jr for edge help. The Falcons also added 3 free agents on the edge, and acquired Jordan Fuller (FS) to help with the secondary. Surprisingly however, the Falcons haven’t made any moves to address the interior defensive line, which many believe to be their weakest unit on the field.


Breaking Down the Season
Based on current lines, the Falcons are projected to be underdogs in their first 6 games of the year, with their biggest hill to climb in week 7 in San Francisco as they’re 6.5 point underdogs (Falcons have a week 5 bye). They will likely need to win at least 2 of these games in order to give themselves a chance to cover the 7.5 wins. The next 7 games on the Falcons schedule tilt more in their favor, with them currently projected to win 5/7 games (week 8 line vs Miami Dolphins is TBD), only being underdogs when they play at the Patriots in week 9. Weeks 15-17 the Falcons run into a stretch where they’re underdogs for 3 straight weeks, and they have a short week 15 as they play the Buccaneers on Thursday Night Football. Depending on how things play out this season, over betters will be happy to have the Saints at home to close out the season week 18.


Final Thoughts
The Falcons 7.5 win total over/under is certainly intriguing. It will be vital for their season for Michael Penix Jr to get off to a good start, and that the offensive line improves on their run blocking ability. Defensively many issues were addressed, though I would still be wary about the interior defensive line. If you’re concerned about this defense for the Falcons gelling this season, the under can be quite intriguing at plus money as it currently stands.