Australian Open predictions and best bets for Day 2 – January 18-19
The 2026 Australian Open begins this weekend, as the top players in the world are in Melbourne Park for the season’s first major. Well, at VSiN, we’re covering every important tournament, providing you with futures and daily tennis best bets. That continues with some tennis picks for Day 2 of the action, so keep reading for a few of my favorite plays for January 18 and 19. Also, bookmark our Australian Open tennis hub, where you’ll get all of my stories and some additional video content!
I also post more tennis plays on the Pro Picks page. I like to see how odds are moving throughout the day, so I occasionally add picks after posting these columns. That said, keep checking that page every couple of hours if you want more of my action. That’s also where you’ll find picks from Gill Alexander, who does great work handicapping tennis on A Numbers Game. You can watch Gill analyze tennis Monday to Friday. With that in mind, if you like betting this sport, you might want to consider becoming a VSiN Pro.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts are betting!
Peyton Stearns vs. Sofia Kenin
I have backed Kenin quite a bit over the years, as I’m a big believer in her ability. However, there’s no denying that she can occasionally go cold, and we haven’t seen great tennis from her in some time. Kenin did beat Elena Gabriela Ruse in a close match in Brisbane earlier in January, but she followed that up with straight-set losses to Ekaterina Alexandrova and Maya Joint.
Kenin, who has won the Australian Open before, is extremely aggressive from the baseline, but she can be erratic. She also has some mental demons she deals with on the court — which might stem from the unique relationship she has with her coach, who also happens to be her father. Well, if Kenin isn’t hot out of the gates in this match, Stearns should be able to battle her way into this one. Stearns, like Kenin, isn’t shy about swinging freely, but she plays with a little more shape. So, Stearns likely won’t have as many wild misses as Kenin. We could also see Stearns go into defense-first mode, looking to play some longer rallies and wait for Kenin to beat herself.
This just feels like it could be an interesting clash of styles, and I ultimately believe that Stearns’ game and personality could bring out the worst in Kenin. That said, at +128 odds, I’m willing to take a shot on the 24-year-old.
Bet: Stearns ML (+128)
Marcos Giron vs. Learner Tien
Embed from Getty ImagesTien has worked his way up the rankings. The southpaw also has a little more momentum heading into this event, as he won a title in Moselle in November and then won the Next Gen ATP Finals a month later. However, even with the 20-year-old being considered one of the better up-and-coming players in the sport, it’s hard to get on board with him being such a heavy favorite against Giron.
Giron actually beat Tien in Madrid last year, earning a 6-1, 1-6, 7-6 (4) victory there. Of course, that was a clay-court match. Playing on a faster hard court will be different. However, I’m not sure either player loves the clay all that much. And simply seeing them on the court together shows that there isn’t much that separates the two. If anything, some of TennisViz’s advanced numbers suggest Giron matches up quite well with Tien.
Over the last 52 weeks, Giron has a higher Performance Rating than Tien, as he’s up at 7.43 in that span. That’s a little higher than the tour average of 7.29, and Tien is actually below that mark at 7.18. Giron is also a little more reliable as a server, as he has a Serve Quality of 7.7 to Tien’s 7.2, which is significant when you consider that they are dead even when looking at Return Quality (6.3).
Giron’s forehand could also be the biggest weapon on the court in this one, as his Forehand Quality of 7.8 is higher than any shot in Tien’s toolkit. I also like that Giron is a bit better when it comes to winning points at the net, and Tien is a player that can occasionally struggle with passes.
Would it surprise me if Tien wins this match? Absolutely not. He’s a big favorite for a reason. However, at +168 odds, Giron is only being given a 37.31% chance of winning this match. I think it should be in the 40-45% range.
Bet: Giron ML (+168)
Rinky Hijikata vs. Adrian Mannarino
The fact that Hijikata is an Australian playing in Melbourne should count for something, but I’m not sure he should be favored over Mannarino. At the age of 37, Mannarino has good weeks and bad weeks, but he’s still a productive hard-court player. That’s why he was able to make a run to the Round of 16 at the US Open last year. Also, even with Mannarino being 13 years older than his opponent, the lefty won five more ATP-level matches than the Australian in 2025.
Last season, Mannarino had a higher hold percentage (80.5% vs. 72.0%) and break percentage (20.8% vs. 18.5%) than Hijikata. Also, over the last 52 weeks, Mannarino has won a higher percentage of points from the baseline (51% vs. 48%).
This, like the Tien-Giron match, is just another in which I think we’re getting good value on the underdog. I also don’t mind that Hijikata will have a ton of adrenaline and nerves heading out there, which could cause some over-hitting. Mannarino is just going to look to stay solid and re-direct the pace sent his way.
Bet: Mannarino ML (+138)
Added Plays
I usually have A LOT MORE on the Pro Picks page. Those plays count towards my record and have been a big part of my success this season. Make sure you check them out. I’ll probably add a few more over there, so refresh that page throughout the day if you’re looking for action.
Tennis Links
Gill Alexander’s Beating The Book Podcast
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