Saratoga Picks for Saturday June 7 from Mike Somich:

We saw the track play a big role on Friday. Once Saratoga sealed the main track, it was impossible to close. If more rain comes, that is going to be a big storyline on Saturday and something that you have to keep an eye on. We saw the graded stakes turf races stay on the turf so I would expect the same tomorrow, Speed did not hold once rain poured onto the turf so take note, speed may not be as good as it was earlier in the week.

The Belmont Stakes, Race #13, Saratoga

The track absolutely matters here. If it favors speed, which I project it will be, that significantly hurts #2 Sovereignty, who will be coming from the back of the pack. It also upgrades #3 Rodriguez’s chance to win and #5 Crudo’s chance to hit the board. Rodriguez and Crudo are the clear speed horses here and should be setting and contesting the pace early. 

Who is in the catbird seat is the main question mark. I believe it will be #6 Baeza that will show the early foot we saw in his Santa Anita races and allow him to stalk the early pace in 3rd. #7 Journalism is the best horse in the race, but the schedule of races becomes an issue here. He could sit a similar trip to Baeza, but I expect him to be further off the lead which, over this track, presents more of an issue. His effort in the Preakness also causes concern. While I believe he will run well, returning with his career best effort in this spot seems unlikely. 

#1 Hill Road offers some value after the top four. I expect him to run well, but, again, it’s unlikely he can win based on the projected trip. This simply comes down to the question if you believe that someone can catch Rodriguez. I do, but he is definitely going to be a player.

Top 4 – 6-7-3-2

The Bets – $50 Win #6 – Superfecta 6 / 3,7 / 1,2,3,7 / 1,2,3,7

The Woody Stephens, Race #11, Saratoga

The Woody Stephens may be the most interesting and bettable race on the card. #10 Chancer McPatrick is the lukewarm favorite at 4-1 and for good reason. He’s a logical horse with the hot pace that is projected and has won over this distance at this track in the past. My main concern is if the track will allow a horse to run down the pace. 

#4 Patch Adams is the classic Derby fever horse. He has been phenomenal at one turn, but the connections wanted to run in the Derby. He cut back to one turn after the Derby dream was gone and returned to his dominance. The track should suit him well, since he will not be too far off the pace. 

If you like Patch Adams, #1 Big Truzz has to be on your contenders list as well. He ran a very good 2nd to Patch Adams in his first start against winners and looked like a real threat at the top of the lane. He’s the most likely horse to improve due to his lack of experience and the connections believe he fits here. 

The other Brad Cox trainee, #8 Gunmetal, is another threat who will be close to the pace. The Swale was too bad to believe, but his other two races are going to be tough against this field. He’s live.  

Top 4 – 4-1-10-8

The Bet – $50 Win #4

Spot Bets

Saratoga, Race #9 – $50 Win #4 (if we are on the turf)

Saratoga, Race #8 – $50 Exaxta – 1 with 4

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