Game: Indiana Hoosiers vs. Ohio State Buckeyes

Date: December 6th at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Without question, the most anticipated of the Power 4 conference title games is this year’s Big Ten Championship between Ohio State and Indiana. This matchup effectively decides the number one overall seed, and it will be the toughest test the Ohio State defense has faced all season. Indiana is in the midst of the best year in program history and now has a chance to make it even more memorable with a conference title and a first-round playoff bye. 

The Hoosiers enter at 12-0 and have handled most opponents with ease, powered by an offense averaging 466.4 yards per game (9th in FBS) and 41.7 points per game (3rd in FBS). Their defense has been just as strong, allowing only 267.6 yards per game (6th in FBS) and 11.9 points per game (3rd in FBS).

Ohio State, meanwhile, has looked every bit like the defending national champions, rolling to a perfect 12-0 regular season. They haven’t needed to lean heavily on their offense, though it still ranks well at 419.4 yards per game (27th in FBS) and 34 points per game (17th in FBS). Their calling card is the nation’s best defense, leading the country in both points allowed (8.5) and yards allowed per game (206.4).

One of these teams will leave Indianapolis with a Big Ten title, an undefeated record, and a first-round bye. With everything on the line Saturday night at 8 PM, this is set up to be one of the defining games of the season.

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Betting Overview

This Big Ten Championship opened with Ohio State as 5.5-point favorites, but the line has tightened, with the Buckeyes now sitting between -4 and -4.5. The moneyline has narrowed as well, with Indiana listed at +165 (from +180) and Ohio State at -194 (from -218). The total has also seen some movement, dropping from the opening number of 49.5 to either 47.5 or 48 depending on the book. 

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: The College Football Playoff rankings mirror the FPI for these two teams.  Ohio State is at 1 giving 28.5 points to the FBS average, while Indiana is at 2 giving 28.4 points to the FBS average.  This model has these teams’ neck and neck, indicating it believes this game is essentially a pick ‘em.
  • SP+: This model is in the same boat with the teams in the same order, but Ohio State is giving 32.4 to the field average, while Indiana is only giving 31.5.  This would still have these teams as narrower favorites than the current line would suggest, with Ohio State only being a 1-point favorite.

Betting Trends

Indiana enters this matchup at 7-5 ATS, including a 5-4 mark in Big Ten play and a 1-0 record as an underdog. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 7 of 12 games and 5 of 9 conference matchups. The under cashed in Indiana’s lone game as an underdog.

Ohio State has been outstanding against the number, posting a 10-1-1 ATS record in games where they were favored and an 8-1 ATS mark within the conference. Thanks to their elite defense, unders have thrived in Buckeye games—hitting in 8 of 12 overall and 6 of 9 Big Ten contests.

Final Thoughts

The Big Ten Championship has produced some solid matchups over the years, but none quite compare to this one. Indiana isn’t traditionally known as a football powerhouse, but the way they’ve played this season would make you think otherwise. Ohio State, on the other hand, is built for moments like this, and with their experience and overall talent, it’s hard to pick against them. I think the Buckeyes not only win this game but also cover the spread, with the under being the more likely result on the total.