Game: BYU Cougars vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders

Date: December 6th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ABC

As far as the Power Four conference championships go, the Big 12 title game will kick things off on Saturday in Arlington, Texas. This year brings a rematch of an earlier meeting between BYU and Texas Tech, a game the Red Raiders controlled in a 29–7 win. The Big 12 has been overlooked for years, but this Texas Tech team appears to be the real deal, especially on defense—something the conference hasn’t always been known for.

BYU hasn’t been quite as strong this season, but they’re still an impressive 11–1. Offensively, they’ve been solid, averaging 396.7 yards per game (52nd in FBS) and 30.8 points per game (30th in FBS). Their defense has also held up well, giving up 349.5 yards per game (42nd in FBS) and only 19.4 points per game (17th in FBS).

Texas Tech also sits at 11–1, and lately they’ve looked outstanding. They feature one of the nation’s top offenses, putting up 470.7 yards per game (7th in FBS) and 41 points per game (5th in FBS). Defensively, they might be even better, allowing just 266.7 yards per game (4th in FBS) and 11.6 points per game (2nd in FBS).

This Big 12 showdown should be a great way to ease into Championship Saturday before the rest of the slate unfolds.

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Betting Overview

People are pretty high on this Texas Tech team, as this matchup opened with the Red Raiders favored at -11.5, but the line has since pushed to between -12.5 and -13.5. We’ve seen similar movement on the moneyline, with BYU drifting out to +425 (from +350) and Texas Tech now sitting at -525 (from -455). The total has stayed relatively stable, opening at 50.5 and holding there at most books, with a few listing it at an even 50.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI:  This model is high on both teams with Texas Tech at 5th giving 22 points to the FBS average, while BYU is at 15th giving 17.3 points to the field average.  Using this model, they believe the line is way off, and the Red Raiders should be around 5-point favorites in this one.
  • SP+: The SP+ model is actually higher on both teams with Texas Tech at 3rd giving 29.9 points to the field average, while BYU is at 14th giving 18.2 points to the field average.  This is more on par with the opening line, favoring the Red Raiders by 11.5.

Betting Trends

In their earlier meeting this season, Texas Tech covered the spread as 13.5-point favorites, and the under 49.5 cashed.

On the year, BYU is 9-3 ATS, including a 6-3 mark in conference play and a 2-1 record as an underdog. Totals have split 6–6 in BYU games, with five overs in nine conference matchups and two unders in three games as an underdog.

Texas Tech has been dominant ATS, entering this matchup at 11-1. The Red Raiders are 8-1 in conference play and 10-1 when listed as favorites. Totals have leaned under in their games, hitting in 7 of 12 overall, including 6 of 9 in conference and 6 of 11 as favorites.

Final Thoughts

It’s easy to assume this game will mirror the first meeting, where Texas Tech pulled away comfortably. However, the key difference this time is the neutral site setting rather than playing in Lubbock. BYU has responded well since that loss a few weeks ago, and with that in mind, I think they can cover here. I also lean toward the under hitting again.