Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Carolina Panthers

Date: December 21st at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

After last week’s results in the NFC South, it feels like no team wants to win the division. This week, however, one team has the opportunity to create separation in a battle between the top two teams in the division, the Buccaneers and the Panthers. Tampa has really struggled lately, losing five of their last six, but still has a .500 record at 7-7. Offensively, they’ve been just okay as they’re 21st in yards per game (316.6), and 16th in points per game (23.4). They have struggled a good bit on the defensive side of the ball, ranking 25th in yards allowed per game (348.2), along with 24th in points allowed per game (25.3). The Carolina Panthers have been about as up-and-down a team as you can be, and lost a tough battle in New Orleans last week, bringing them to .500 as well at 7-7. Carolina continues to be a below-average offense statistically, as they are 24th in yards per game (309), along with being 28th in points per game (18.9). Defensively, though, they aren’t too bad, as they’re 17th in yards allowed per game (331.5), along with 14th in points per game (22.6). This game isn’t necessarily the end-all, be-all for the NFC South, as these teams will square off again to close out the season. With that said, with only three games left, any leg up one of these teams can get down the stretch, the better off they will be in their playoff pursuit.

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Weather

As far as winter temperatures go, Sunday in Charlotte, NC will be pretty nice. We’re looking at temperatures in the mid-60s, with minimal winds as averages will be around 5 mph, with gusts up to 12 mph. Precipitation doesn’t appear to be a factor in this one, as there’s only a 10% chance at the moment.

Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for this one, we saw the Buccaneers as 3.5-point favorites, and they’ve stayed close to that number, as they’re now at -3. The moneyline has moved at a similar rate, as the Bucs are at -155 (from -175), and the Panthers are at +140 (from +145). The total in this one has dropped marginally from the opening number of 47.5, as now just about every sportsbook has the total at 45.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching battle in this one looks a lot different now, than it would’ve preseason. Dave Canales has proven to be a strong coach, and Ejiro Evero has turned the defense around from being one of the worst in the league last season. Todd Bowles is still a great coach in his own right, but with the skid they’ve been on, you have to look at the coaching just as much as the players. For that reason, I’d lean slightly in favor of Carolina in this department.

DLs vs. OLs: The Panthers’ offensive line going up against the Buccaneers’ defensive line will be an awesome battle to watch. Even with Carolina’s offensive line a little banged up, they’ve been really strong this season. The Bucs’ offensive line has been abysmal, on the other hand, and the same goes for the Panthers’ defensive line. Overall, the trenches battle slightly favors Carolina here.

QBs: Tampa easily has the better quarterback in this scenario. Bryce Young has shown some strong flashes this season, but he doesn’t have nearly the impact on a game that Baker Mayfield does.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: This position battle is pretty much a toss-up as well. Rico Dowdle and Chuba Hubbard give Carolina the edge in the running back room. Tampa outweighs the Panthers in the other two positions here, so I’d give them a slight advantage, but it’s not by much.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Both offenses will be able to sling it in this one. I’d certainly favor the Buccaneers in the wide receiver room, but Tampa’s secondary has been really bad, allowing 246.9 yards per game through the air (30th in NFL). Overall, that makes this matchup pretty even, but if there was a slight lean, it would probably favor the Bucs’ receiving room.

Betting Trends

Over the last 10 matchups between these franchises, we’ve seen the Bucs win in all but one game. They’ve been more favorable in the ATS department as well, covering in 7 of the last 10. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 7 of 10 as well. In last year’s games, Tampa won both, split in the cover department, and the over hit in both.

This season, Tampa has not been a very good ATS team at 5-9, with a 4-3 record on the road, a 1-0 record as a road favorite, and a 2-2 record in the division. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 8 of 14. On the road, however, the under has been more favorable, hitting in 5 of 7, and hitting in the lone game as a road favorite. In-division over/unders have split 2 apiece.

The Panthers have been a great ATS team this year with an 8-6 overall record. At home, they’re 4-2, with a 4-1 record as a home underdog, and a 2-2 record in the division. Totals have split 7 apiece, with the over being more favorable at home, hitting in 4 of 6, and 4 of 5 as a home underdog. In the division, the under has hit in 3 of the 4.

Final Thoughts

You’ve got to love a good division battle, especially one where both teams have a chance to win the division in just a few short weeks. Both teams will certainly want to get that leg up in the divisional race, so I think we will see a tightly contested football game. With the way the Panthers have played this year, particularly at home, I’d have to lean towards them covering in this one. As for the total, I’d favor the over, with both teams banged up a little on the defensive side of the ball.