Burke: NFL Player Props for Week 6

With five games worth of data for 28 teams and four games worth of data for four of them, we have a pretty good idea now of who the coaches and quarterbacks trust. We also have a good idea of who looks good on film and who looks good on the stat sheet so that they keep getting opportunities. Most prop bets are simply about opportunity, or the lack of it. That’s true of these Week 6 NFL player prop bets.

As we all know, injury creates opportunity as well, so that’s something that you always want to be cognizant of for betting the spread and total, but especially for looking at the prop markets. Furthermore, it can be tough to bet Overs with a guy who is battling some sort of ailment. It may make sense to look for some Unders on those guys. It seems like a lot of people get caught up in rooting for positives and don’t realize that in a two-way market, sometimes the Under is the best route to take.

We also have a new and exciting tool here at VSiN, as OptaAI NFL Player Prop Projections are now available. Consult them before locking in your prop wagers this weekend. I did while putting together this week’s article.

And don’t forget that our friends at Fantasy Points have some excellent tools for not only fantasy football lineup decisions, but also NFL player prop betting. Use the promo code VSIN2025 to get a discount on their Data Suite, a collection of proprietary tools and models. To get an idea of what Fantasy Points has to offer, check out their WR/CB Matchup Tool.

As always, shop around for these Week 6 NFL Player Props. Lines are as of 9:45 a.m. PT on Friday, October 10 and are from DraftKings.

Check out my First Touchdown Scorer props article here.

Here are some Player Props NFL Week 6:

Justin Herbert (LAC) Over 21.5 Rushing Yards (-108)

With injuries to Omarion Hampton and Najee Harris, the Chargers don’t really have reliable running backs. Maybe we see Kimani Vidal and Hassan Haskins get some more reps and more of a chance to impact the game, but Herbert had the team’s second-longest carry of the season last week on a 41-yard scamper. Vidal and Haskins have nine combined rush attempts, so they weren’t even viewed as good third-down option or as a change of pace.

I think Herbert is going to have to make some things happen with his legs. Obviously he’ll need to be responsible, but he seems healthier this season than last when the plantar fasciitis issues took away most of training camp and had an impact into the regular season. Even then, he had 69 rush attempts last season for over 300 yards.

The Dolphins have allowed the fourth-lowest average depth of target this season, so I think there will be a lot of tight coverage, especially with no actual worries about the Chargers handing the ball off too often. That could mean Herbert needs to scramble.

The Opta AI Projection for Herbert is 16.23 rushing yards.

Kareem Hunt (KC) Under 8.5 Rush Attempts (-118), Under 30.5 Rushing Yards (-111)

Did we finally see the end of the timeshare at running back in Kansas City last week? Isiah Pacheco had a 62.5% snap share in the game and Hunt had a season-low 32.8% share. Hunt did have seven yards per carry on his seven attempts, but in the four games prior, he had 3.2, 3.9, 3.4, and 2.6 YPC. To me, he’s just not a very good option.

Even if he finds a way to get nine or so carries, he’s basically at three yards per pop, so I think I’d still have a good shot at the Under 30.5. But, the Chiefs need more explosiveness than he’s able to provide. Pacheco hasn’t been great, but he has averaged 4.5 yards per carry or more in four of his five games. In this one against a high-octane Lions offense where KC might need to find a way to keep pace, Pacheco should be on the field more.

The Opta AI Projections for Hunt are 10.88 rush attempts and 39.37 rushing yards.

Spencer Rattler (NO) Over 211.5 Passing Yards (-112)

Rattler is actually doing pretty well despite not having a ton to work with this season. He’s also going through a coaching change with Kellen Moore now at the helm. But, Rattler has a 6/1 TD/INT ratio and has gone Over this number in three of his five games. In one of them, he finished with 207 yards, so he came up just short.

Drake Maye has been playing really, really well, so I think the Saints will have to keep pace a bit and they are also likely to be trailing late in this one, giving Rattler the chance to add up some numbers. But, here’s what I really like. The Patriots have allowed the fifth-most yards after catch this season. Rattler has the eighth-fewest Average Intended Air Yards and the eighth-fewest Completed Air Yards per Next Gen Stats.

In other words, Rattler isn’t throwing the ball very far down the field, but Moore’s quick-strike offense is trying to get the ball out in space to the playmakers. The Saints are last in the NFL in yards per catch, but the Patriots have had some tackling issues. Add that to the projected game state and I think that this has a good shot at going Over, especially since the Patriots rank fourth in yards per carry allowed.

The Opta AI Projection is 227.67 passing yards.

Visit the NFL Hub for all of our Week 6 NFL content and see more NFL Player Prop Picks on our Pro Picks page.

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