Week 7 college football picks are being made, which means that we are nearly halfway through the regular season. Week 14 is reserved for the conference championship games and those are not technically considered postseason games. Each week will continue to bring us drama, including some that will impact that College Football Playoff picture. At least we’re still a few weeks away from those rankings coming out.

By my count, Washington State vs. Mississippi is one of two non-conference games this week outside of NC State vs. Notre Dame, who plays a non-conference game every week. UConn is on a bye and everybody else is playing a league opponent. Speaking of that Washington State vs. Mississippi game, I got a hell of a chuckle out of this:

‼

Mississippi is a 32.5-point favorite.

And I have a play on the other one.

These are my favorite Week 7 college football picks, but we have many others. You can check out our Week 7 College Football Hub to see what others are taking and also to explore all of our college football tools, power ratings, and more. See our College Football Pro Picks page for more from my colleagues and broadcast guests.

Here are my Week 7 College Football Picks:

Odds as of Wednesday, October 8, 3:00 p.m. PT

Wake Forest (-3, 51) at Oregon State

Embed from Getty Images

3:30 p.m. ET (The CW Network)

Oregon State should have won last week. They were the better team, especially after digging a 17-0 hole that they ultimately couldn’t climb out of against App State. Usually when we see a misleading box score or a wrong-side winner, the market responds in kind, backing the unlucky team that seems to be in line for positive regression.

That isn’t the case here. The 2.5s have mostly disappeared on Wake Forest, despite the really random travel from Winston-Salem out to Corvallis. The Demon Deacons are a firm “play-on” team for me. They’ve covered back-to-back games since a badly-needed bye. They also should have covered against NC State in what was their third game in 13 days. They should have beaten Georgia Tech outright and did go to Virginia Tech and won outright last time out.

The Demon Deacons defense held Kyron Drones to 111 passing yards and 36 rushing yards. That’s important as they draw Maalik Murphy here, but I feel like DC Scottie Hazelton will have the boys ready. Also, this is a big game for Wake, as they can get two-thirds of the way to bowl eligibility. So even though it’s a weird time for a non-conference game, I think it’ll keep them focused.

Murphy has already thrown seven picks, so Wake Forest could have some extra possessions here to rely on the running game and I think the line move is telling us that could be exactly the game state.

Pick: Wake Forest -3

Air Force at UNLV (-6.5, 65.5)

3:30 p.m. ET (CBS Sports Network)

UNLV has to be happy to be back at home and playing inside. Last week’s 31-17 win over Wyoming included touchdowns on two blocked punts, as the Rebels dealt with rain, thunder, lightning, snow, hail, and various other things that will not be an issue at Allegiant Stadium.

Up until that conference opener, the Rebels were living up to the basketball team’s Runnin’ Rebels moniker, racking up 6.85 yards per play. But, they’ve been porous defensively as well, allowing 6.3 yards per play before getting an assist from Mother Nature last weekend. Even in that game, Wyoming nearly had five yards per play. The Rebels are 108th in the nation in yards per play allowed on defense.

And they are FAR from the worst defense in this game. Air Force is last in the nation with 7.71 yards per play allowed. The next worst defense entering the week was Arkansas State with 7.13 YPP against.

Liam Szarka might be my favorite player in college football. The Falcons QB has taken the ball and run with it since taking over the starting role. Well, he’s also thrown it, too. He’s racked up 850 passing yards and 448 rushing yards, accounting for 13 total TDs. Szarka has three straight 200+ yard passing games with a 7/2 TD/INT ratio. The last Air Force QB with three straight 200+ yard passing games was Shaun Carney from Nov. 11-24 in 2006.

Sports-Reference college football game logs don’t go back far enough to find the last QB to pass for 200+ yards in four straight games. Szarka has a great shot against UNLV.

I’m not at all surprised to see the Rebels ahead of the pace on offense with first-year head coach Dan Mullen. I’m also not terribly surprised to see the defense tracking behind a bit. Back on the fast track in Sin City, I think we see a lot of points here.

Pick: Over 65.5

Arizona State at Utah (-6, 49)

10:15 p.m. ET (ESPN)

A real good Big 12 battle in Salt Lake City will feature our own Stormy Buonantony on the sidelines, as the Sun Devils and Utes meet in a game that could have some huge implications later in the season. Texas Tech looks like a wagon right now, including a head-to-head win the last time Utah was on the field. Arizona State entered the week as one of four teams with an unbeaten conference record, along with BYU and Cincinnati.

The Sun Devils already have wins over Baylor and TCU and a win here over Utah could put them in the driver’s seat for a spot in the Big 12 Championship Game. They host Texas Tech next week and don’t play BYU, so tiebreakers could be a factor.

But, that’s a matter for another time. In terms of this game, I just simply think Utah is overrated right now. The first time they really played somebody, it was Texas Tech and they lost by 24 at home. That season-opening win against UCLA may have aged better off the Penn State win for the Bruins, but the team they are now wasn’t really the team they were then with Deshaun Foster. West Virginia didn’t have their starting QB last game. Arizona State’s strength of schedule is more than 20 spots higher.

Arizona State has only allowed 4.83 yards per play overall and 4.88 in four FBS games. In total, they rank 33rd in yards per play allowed. Utah is 45th, but what is more interesting, at least to me, is that the four FBS teams Utah has played rank 121st, 51st, 6th (Texas Tech), and 73rd.

The Sun Devils defense shouldn’t allow them to get comfortably beaten in this game. Devon Dampier might be a stud, but he had a 12/12 TD/INT ratio last season and threw two of his three interceptions this season against the Red Raiders. If he and the Utes prove it to me here, so be it. I know Sam Leavitt can play in big games.

For now, Arizona State looks like a comparable opponent and a six-point head start works for me.

Pick: Arizona State +6

For more best bets and Week 7 College Football content, click here.

The post Burke: Week 7 College Football Picks and Predictions appeared first on VSiN.