In the No. 11 vs. No. 11 matchup in the NCAA Tournament West Region, BYU vs. Texas is the first round game at 7:25 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 19 with a trip to first round on the line.

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How to Watch BYU vs. Texas

When: 7:25 p.m. ET on Tuesday, March 19th

Where: Moda Center in Portland, OR

Watch: TBS

Odds for BYU vs. Texas

(odds current at time of publish)

Spread: BYU -1.5 (-120), Texas +1.5 (+100)

Total: Over 159.5 (-110), Under 159.5 (-110)

BYU vs. Texas Prediction & Preview

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Texas blew a 62-53 with under three minutes to play in the First Four game against NC State, but Tramon Mark’s game-winning bucket with 1.1 seconds left sent the Longhorns into a frenzy and sent the traveling secretary into overdrive. Unlike fellow Tuesday night winner Howard, who simply had to go from Dayton to Buffalo, Texas had a cross-country trek to Portland to take on BYU on Thursday evening.

All eyes will be on AJ Dybantsa for however long BYU is in the NCAA Tournament, and this matchup sets up as a fascinating contrast between a one-man offensive engine and a Texas team that has been wildly inconsistent, but still dangerous in the right setting.

Dybantsa has been everything advertised for BYU, emerging as one of the purest scorers in the country and likely No. 1 pick. With Robert Wright III and the now-injured Richie Saunders helping carry the load, the Cougars have leaned heavily on their freshman star to generate offense. The problem is that outside of him, this is a team with some pretty glaring flaws, particularly on the defensive end.

BYU can score with just about anybody. They’ve been efficient inside the arc, can rebound, and have enough perimeter threats to stretch defenses when shots are falling. But the 3-point discrepancy is a real issue. The Cougars enter the tournament with a negative 3P% differential, and that showed up consistently in Big 12 play, where they were near the bottom of the league in both 3-point shooting and 3-point defense. Combine that with a high turnover rate and you get a defense that simply hasn’t held up, finishing near the bottom of the conference in adjusted defensive efficiency.

That’s where Texas becomes interesting. The Longhorns limped into the tournament, needing a Selection Sunday sweat just to get in after dropping five of their last six games, but the underlying profile suggests a team that can absolutely win this game. They’ve got six Quadrant 1 wins out of the SEC, a top-25 offense, and a style that can create problems for a BYU defense that already has issues.

Texas does a lot of things well offensively. They crash the offensive glass, get to the free throw line, and have enough shot-making to keep defenses honest. Even without a high assist rate, they’ve found ways to score efficiently, which speaks to their individual shot creation. Against a BYU defense that struggles to defend the perimeter and doesn’t force many mistakes, the Longhorns should find opportunities to generate quality looks.

Of course, Texas has plenty of its own problems. This is one of the worst defensive teams that Sean Miller has taken to the NCAA Tournament, particularly when it comes to defending the 3-point line and forcing turnovers. That opens the door for BYU, especially if Dybantsa gets hot and finds some rhythm from deep alongside Kennard Davis Jr.

Ultimately, this game may come down to which team’s flaws show up less. BYU’s defensive issues and reliance on one primary scorer make them volatile, especially in a neutral-site setting where their late-season slide raises concerns. Texas, meanwhile, has the more balanced offensive attack and the physicality edge on the glass and at the foul line, but comes in with shaky form and its own defensive shortcomings.

If this turns into a clean, half-court game, Texas probably has more ways to score. But if Dybantsa takes over and BYU can generate enough shot variance from deep, the Cougars have a path. Either way, this feels like a game where both teams will have stretches of control, and the winner will likely be the one that better masks its biggest weakness for 40 minutes.

Estimated Score: Coming soon.

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

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