The 2025 NFL season will be upon us very soon, and it’s exciting to get an early look at the Carolina Panthers season. Coming off of a 5-12 season in 2024, many Panthers fans as well as odds makers are cautiously optimistic for the upcoming season, with many sports books having the over/under season win total set at 6.5 (Over -125; Under +105 per Draftkings) games. Let’s take a dive into some things to consider when looking into when looking at this line.


Reasons for the Over
The Panthers are playing the 5th easiest schedule in the NFL based on opponents records from last season (average winning percentage: .457) (operations.nfl.com). The toughest out of division games on the schedule are week 8 vs the Bills, week 9 at the Packers, week 12 at the 49ers, and week 13 vs the Rams. If the Panthers can manage to win at least 1 of these games, it will put them in a great position to cover that 6.5, especially considering NFC South is a relatively weak division.
Though 5-12 was not a great season by any means, it was a step in the right direction for the Panthers, having come off a previous 2-15 record in 2023. After the week 12 bye last year, the Panthers went 2-5, but had strong performances against the 2 Super Bowl teams in the Kansas City Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles losing to both by less than a touchdown. They also lost to the NFC South champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points in week 13, so if they can flip a game around like that this year, it would bode well for the over on wins (Panthers ended up 2-2 in games within 3 points). Carolina has continuity with Head Coach Dave Canales entering his second season with the team, Offensive Coordinator Brad Idzik entering his second season as well, and Defensive Coordinator Ejiro Evero entering his 3rd season for the Panthers. This is particularly important on the offensive side of the ball for a young quarterback such as Bryce Young, as it can be challenging having to learn a new system every year. Canalales also assisted in the resurrection of both Baker Mayfield, and Geno Smith on his way up the coaching ladder. The offensive line for the Panthers this coming season is also exactly the same, who came off a decent season where they ranked 19th in pressure rate allowed (35.6%), and finished at 10th in run block win rate. With the addition of Rico Dowdle, and drafting Tetairoa McMillan this will give Carolina a lot more flexibility on offense, and present a lot more challenges for opposing defenses.

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Defensively the Panthers ranked 32nd in yards allowed per game (404.5 yds/game) 30th in sacks, 25th in int’s, 30th in forced fumbles. Though these defensive numbers are not nearly where they need to be, the only way they can go is up. With the additions of Bobby Brown III, Tershawn Wharton, and Patrick Jones II, this could be the shake up the Panthers need defensively.


Reasons for the Under

The unfortunate reality is the Panthers are currently only favored in 3 of their games at the moment (6 games that are roughly a pick ‘em- neither team is heavily favored 4 of which the panthers are currently the “underdog”). And though Dave Canales is continuity for the Panthers, this is his first head coaching experience in the NFL, so he’s an unproven commodity at this point. It is also important to note, that 2 teams in the division the Falcons, and the Buccaneers are currently projected to have a higher over under win total than the Panthers, with the Falcons at 7.5 wins (Over -140; Under +115 per Draftkings) and Buccaneers at 9.5 wins (Over -105; Under -115 per Draftkings)


Though the defensive woes of the 2024 season can be looked at as a positive, as there’s pretty much only room for improvement, if the Panthers remain stagnant on defense and put up the same or similar numbers, then we’re looking at a long season ahead. Even though the Panthers have acquired some players this offseason on the defensive line, they still lack depth with this unit, which may be detrimental later in the season, as defensive line depth is crucial for run stuffing on first down, and if there’s minimal pass rush, this obviously lends issues to the secondary.


Recent History for the Panthers Over/Under Win totals
Looking at this from a historical sense, the Panthers have failed to cover their season over under win total 4 out of the last 5 years, or 3 out of the last 5 years (this varies due to some sportsbooks having the 2024 line set at 4.5, and some at 5.5).


Final Reflections
As you can see, there are arguments to be made for both sides of the coin on this 6.5 total wins over/under. Many are optimistic about Bryce Young continuing with his late season heroics from last season, and it will be interesting to see if Tetairoa McMillan can take this offense another step forward. The defensive line for the Panthers will need to step up, and will need to try and stay as healthy as possible, otherwise the rest of the team will be fighting an uphill battle.