Carolina Panthers football returns this Sunday, September 7th at 1:00 PM ET, as they head to Jacksonville to face the Jaguars. Both franchises are coming off similar seasons, each finishing 3rd in their division and securing a high first-round draft pick. Since these two teams are in different conferences, there isn’t much history, but the all-time series is tied 4-4, with Jacksonville taking the last meeting in 2023 in shutout fashion, 26-0. While the records appeared alike at season’s end, the Panthers closed with far more momentum and enter this season with greater optimism. This matchup opened at Jaguars -3.5 across most sportsbooks, with the moneyline at Panthers +140 and Jaguars -166, shifting slightly further toward Jacksonville. The over/under opened at 45.5, but has since moved to 46.5–47 depending on the book.

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Weather

The weather for this matchup is shaping up to be pretty fair, though a bit warm, with temperatures in the high 80s to low 90s and only a 15% chance of rain. Winds are expected to stay light, ranging between 2 and 7 mph during the game. This should allow both offenses to utilize their full arsenal and playbook.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching edge in this matchup leans slightly toward the Panthers, as the Jaguars will be rolling out nearly an entirely new staff. This will be Brad Idzik’s first game as offensive coordinator for Carolina, though the offensive blueprint belongs to Dave Canales, so the transition shouldn’t be difficult to manage. The only arguable edge for Jacksonville is the uncertainty of what this group may bring, but every NFL staff spends the offseason making adjustments in search of an advantage.

DL’s vs OL’s: The defensive line units for these two franchises are fairly even, but with Jacksonville fielding a comparatively weaker offensive line, the edge tilts to the Panthers. Carolina now has some solid pieces up front, which should create challenges for a Jaguars defensive line that projects as fair to middling.

QB’s: Though he didn’t have a great season last year, Trevor Lawrence holds the edge here simply because of his experience. Bryce Young is by no means a poor option, but we’ve seen a bit more from Lawrence over the years. That narrative could shift quickly, however, if last season’s struggles resurface.

RB’s & TE’s vs LB’s: From a running backs standpoint, the Panthers hold the edge with Chuba Hubbard and a stronger offensive line. At tight end, the groups are fairly even, with neither featuring players who truly stand out. The Jaguars, however, boast a strong linebacker corps led by Josh Hines-Allen, while the Panthers don’t quite measure up in that area.

WR’s & Secondaries: Both receiving corps are solid, with Jacksonville holding a slight edge thanks to more proven players and a stronger secondary. Carolina has some intriguing pieces at wideout, but Tetairoa McMillan has yet to play, and Xavier Legette is only entering his second season. The departure of Adam Thielen leaves questions, though the Panthers hope Hunter Renfrow can fill that gap. Carolina’s secondary struggled heavily last year, and no notable additions suggest that will change on paper.

ATS & Over/Under Trends for this Game

The Panthers went 8-9 ATS last season but struggled on the road, finishing 3-5 ATS, with all of those games coming as underdogs. The over hit in 13 of Carolina’s 17 contests, including 6 of 8 on the road.

Jacksonville finished 9-7-1 ATS last year but was just .500 at home, going 3-3-1. As a home favorite, however, they went 0-2-0. The over also leaned slightly in Jaguars games, cashing in 9 of 17 overall. At home, the over hit 3 times while the under hit 4, but in non-conference matchups, the over cashed 4 times against just 1 under.

Final Thoughts

There is certainly plenty of unpredictability heading into Week 1. The one thing you can rely on are the offensive and defensive lines, where I give the Panthers the edge. Jacksonville does have home field in this one, but I don’t see it as a major advantage, though there will be intrigue with rookie Travis Hunter making his NFL debut. I expect this game to stay close, but I’m most interested to see how the Panthers’ defense performs right out of the gate.