Game: Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

Date: September 28th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: Fox

The Carolina Panthers finally notched their first win of the season after a concerning 0-2 start. Defense was where this game was won, as the Panthers held the Falcons to a whopping zero points and came up with two key interceptions, one of which resulted in six. This week, the Panthers travel to Foxborough, Massachusetts, to take on the 1-2 New England Patriots. Things haven’t been bad, per se, for the Patriots, but they just haven’t done anything noteworthy to get above .500. Offensively, things have started somewhat sluggishly for New England, as quarterback Drake Maye leads the team in rushing with only 87 yards through three games. Defensively, the Patriots have been solid, particularly against the run, though there is still room for improvement in pass coverage. This week presents an intriguing matchup between two young quarterbacks, and it will be fascinating to see which one comes out on top.

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Weather

There is nothing weather-wise of major concern this Sunday in Foxborough, as temperatures will be in the mid- to low-70s throughout the game, with only a 10% chance of precipitation. Winds will be very light as well, averaging around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 14 mph.

Betting Overview

This one opened with a fairly narrow spread of -3.5 in favor of New England, but as more money has come in on the Patriots, the line has moved to -5.5. Movement in the moneyline has shifted from +145 for Carolina to between +180 and +205, while New England has moved from -175 to between -215 and -250. The total in this matchup has dropped from its original line of 45.5 to between 43.5 and 42.5, depending on the book.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: The coaching matchup in this one is about as close as you can get, as neither group is particularly proven in their current situation. The Panthers’ staff has a little more chemistry at this point—or at least you would hope so. New England’s Mike Vrabel, on the other hand, has proven he can win as a head coach with the Titans, and offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels has been part of many successful Patriots teams. For that reason, I’m giving a slight edge in the coaching department to the Patriots.

DLs vs. OLs: The battle in the trenches leans slightly in favor of Carolina in this one. The Panthers were effective up front in the run game, particularly last week, forcing the Falcons to throw. Carolina’s offensive line has also held up well, giving Bryce Young 2.4 seconds in the pocket, which is only 0.2 seconds behind league leader Jared Goff.

QBs: This is a matchup between two very young quarterbacks in this league. Bryce Young has a few more starts than Drake Maye, but neither has been particularly effective to this point in the season. I can’t give an edge to either player at this stage of their careers.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: New England certainly has the edge in this area, largely because Hunter Henry has been such a reliable receiver for Drake Maye. The running back room has held this group back a bit, but considering Mike Vrabel was a linebacker himself—and that the Patriots have elite pieces in their own linebacker room—it could prove difficult for the Panthers’ offense.

WRs vs. Secondaries: While neither wide receiver room nor secondary jumps off the page, the Panthers have been slightly better than New England in this department overall. A note of concern for the Patriots is that their star corner, Christian Gonzalez, is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Betting Trends

The betting trends from last season don’t particularly favor the Panthers in this one. In non-conference games last year, they were 2-3 ATS, and as an away underdog they went 3-5. For totals, the Panthers had four of five non-conference games hit the over, and six of eight overs came in games where they were an away underdog.

The ATS trends don’t look great for New England either, as they were 1-3-1 ATS in non-conference games and 3-4-1 as a home team. Similarly to the Panthers, the over was very prominent in these matchups, hitting in seven of eight home games and four of five non-conference games.

Final Thoughts

This is shaping up to be an exciting matchup for both teams, as each can reach .500 with a win on Sunday. If the Panthers can carry the momentum from last Sunday into this one, they will give the Patriots problems on defense. Bryce Young will need to step up, however, if the Panthers want to pull this one out. New England, on the other hand, will need improvements in the run game to have a chance. I don’t particularly love the spread for either team, but I would lean toward the Panthers covering. As for the total, the over looks like a solid option here.