Game: Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

Date: December 25th at 4:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: Netflix

Later on, in the afternoon comes the second NFL Christmas game, an NFC North battle between the Lions and the Vikings. Detroit had high expectations coming into this season, though things have not really gone their way. They’ve put together several great performances, but a few too many games have slipped away, as they’re 8-7 this season, with a longshot chance to make the playoffs. Offensively this year, they’ve been one of the highest producing teams at 3rd in yards per game (379.9), along with being 2nd in points per game (30.1). Where they have struggled is containing other teams’ offenses, as they allow 348.4 yards per game (24th in the NFL), along with 24.9 points per game (23rd in the NFL). Minnesota has also had a fairly up and down year, though they’ve been a strong team as of recently, winning 3 straight and now sit at 7-8 overall. The Vikings offense hasn’t been the most consistent, as they’re 28th in yards per game (276.7), and 26th in points per game (20.3). They do boast a strong defense, allowing just 296.8 yards per game (5th in the NFL), along with only 21.3 points per game (11th in the NFL). It will be interesting to see what this Vikings team will look like without J.J. McCarthy, and you know the Lions will bring everything they have, with still a slight chance of making the playoffs this year.

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Betting Overview

Preseason, we saw the Lions as just 1.5-point favorites in this game, but with injuries and how each team’s season has shaken out, Detroit is now a 7-to-7.5-point favorite. The moneyline has seen similar movement, as Detroit is currently at -345 (from -120), while Minnesota is at +300 (from even odds). The total has dipped a decent bit from 46.5 to 43 or 43.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This is a fantastic coaching matchup. A lot of people really like and believe in what Kevin O’Connell does as head coach, but Dan Campbell has been just as, if not more, impressive. With Detroit having lost both coordinators last offseason, this team could’ve easily folded, but they’ve been really impressive this year, even though they may not make the playoffs.

OLs vs. DLs: Both of these teams have been strong on the defensive line this year, but the gap up front comes on the offensive line. Minnesota has struggled in both protection and run blocking, which is a rough combination to have. Detroit will definitely have an advantage at the line of scrimmage this week.

QBs: It seems Minnesota will be relying on rookie quarterback Max Brosmer this week against Detroit. That makes this battle pretty easy, as it clearly favors Jared Goff.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Though the Vikings have the advantage in the tight end room this week, the Lions are better in both of the other position groups. Detroit has two of the most dynamic running backs in the league, and a really good tight end room.

WRs vs. Secondaries: The battle on the outside also favors Detroit. They’ve been really strong against the pass this year, outside of a few matchups. Both teams do have strong receiver groups, but when you have to rely on a rookie quarterback to get you the ball, I’d have to lean toward Detroit here.

Betting Trends

This rivalry has been pretty even over the last 10 games, as Detroit has won 6 of the last 10. ATS results have been quite lopsided, as Detroit has covered in 9 out of the last 10, and the over has been really favorable, hitting in 8 of 10.

The Lions are 7-8 ATS this year, with a 3-4 record on the road, a 2-0 record as an away favorite, and a 1-3 record in the division. The over has been really favorable for Detroit, hitting in 10 of 15 games, with 4 of 7 on the road, and both games as an away favorite. In the division, the over has hit in 3 of 4.

Minnesota is also 7-8 ATS this season, with a 2-4 record at home, an 0-2 record as a home underdog, and a 2-2 record in the division. Totals have favored the over, hitting in 8 of 15 games. At home though, the under has been more favorable, hitting in 4 of 6 games, and splitting 1 apiece in games as home underdogs. Divisional games have also split 2 apiece for over/unders.

Final Thoughts

Though this Vikings team has been strong of late, it feels like they have too much going against them in this one. I would feel pretty confident in taking the Lions to cover in this matchup, as I’m sure they will control the game on both sides of the ball. The total is a little tricky here, though I would slightly lean towards the over, given the history of totals between these teams.