Game: Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Date: December 25th at 8:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: Prime Video

Rounding things out this Christmas is an AFC West matchup that many expected to have major playoff implications, as the Denver Broncos take on the Kansas City Chiefs. Denver is still playing for the No. 1 overall seed, but they’re going up against a team that is severely wounded—which almost feels like an understatement.

The Broncos have been incredible this year, though they did cough up a game against the Jaguars last week, bringing them to 12-3 overall. Offensively, they’ve been a little above average, ranking 10th in yards per game (352.1) and 13th in points per game (24.1). Defensively, however, they’ve been elite, sitting 4th in yards allowed per game (291.6) and 5th in points allowed per game (19.7).

Kansas City, on the other hand, has had an abysmal season, especially as of late with the wave of injuries they’ve endured. They’ve lost four straight games, falling to 6-9, and are officially out of the playoffs for the first time in over a decade. Offensively, they’ve been mediocre, ranking 13th in yards per game (342.9) and 20th in points per game (22.5). Defensively, they’ve remained solid, sitting 10th in yards allowed per game (307.9) and 4th in points allowed per game (19.6).

The Chiefs certainly won’t lay down in this one, but with how limited their resources are heading into this matchup, it’s almost impossible to see a realistic path for them to win this game.

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Weather

This will be an unseasonably warm game in Kansas City, as temperatures are expected to start in the low 60s before dipping into the high 50s as the game progresses. Winds will be modest, averaging around 8 mph with gusts up to 14 mph. Precipitation will not be a factor in this matchup.

Betting Overview

When the betting market opened for this game in the preseason, the Chiefs were listed as strong 4.5-point favorites. Now, the script has completely flipped, with the Broncos sitting as heavy favorites at -13 to -13.5. Denver now sits at -1000 on the moneyline (from +180), while Kansas City is at +750 (from -218). The total has also dropped significantly, falling from 44.5 to 36.5.

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: While it’s easy to look at past seasons and assume Kansas City has the coaching edge based on their long-term success, this matchup needs to be evaluated through the lens of this season. Denver has been remarkably consistent all year and has fielded one of the best-coached defenses in the league under Vance Joseph. Kansas City, meanwhile, has shown major offensive flaws, raising questions about some of their coaching decisions. The edge here leans toward Denver.

OLs vs. DLs: As is often the case with successful teams, strength in the trenches has been a major factor for Denver this season. The Broncos arguably have the best offensive line in the league, even without Luke Wattenberg at center. Denver has also been solid along the defensive front. Kansas City, on the other hand, has been average to slightly below average on both sides of the line, giving Denver a clear advantage up front.

QBs: Kansas City will be relying on Chris Oladokun, who is expected to make his first career start on Christmas Day. Going up against Bo Nix, Oladokun will have a lot on his plate, and this quarterback matchup clearly favors Denver.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: With Denver fairly banged up at linebacker and running back, this position group slightly favors Kansas City. The Chiefs also hold a significant edge in the tight end room, which could be one of their few offensive advantages in this game.

WRs vs. Secondaries: Neither receiving corps truly jumps off the page, but Kansas City will be without several key contributors. Denver, meanwhile, boasts one of the best secondaries in the league, which gives the Broncos a clear edge on the outside.

Betting Trends

Looking at the last 10 matchups between these franchises, Kansas City has had the upper hand against Denver, winning 7 of the last 10. One important thing to note, however, is that Denver has still managed to cover in 8 of those 10 games, while the under has hit in 7 of 10. The Broncos have found more recent success against the Chiefs, winning each of the last two matchups, covering both times, with the under cashing in both contests.

While Denver has been excellent overall this season, they have not been a strong ATS team, sitting at just 6-8-1. On the road, they are 2-3-1, with an 0-3 record as an away favorite, and a 1-2-1 record in divisional games. Totals have slightly favored the under, hitting in 8 of 15 games. On the road, totals have split evenly at 3 apiece, though the over has hit in all three games as a road favorite. In divisional matchups, the under has hit in 3 of 4.

Though Denver hasn’t been great ATS, Kansas City hasn’t been much better, as they are just 5-9-1 this season. At home, they are 4-3-1, with a 1-1 record as a home underdog, and a 1-3 record in divisional games. Totals have strongly favored the under, hitting in 11 of 15 games overall, including 7 of 8 at home. As a home underdog, totals have split 1 apiece, while 3 of the 4 divisional games have resulted in the under.

Final Thoughts

As with any game where one team is missing a significant number of key players, there is plenty of uncertainty involved. The one thing I do feel confident in, however, is Denver’s ability to control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, paired with the fact that they are still playing for the number one seed in the AFC. For that reason, I think laying the points with Denver at -13.5 is the right play here, and despite the low total, I would lean toward the over as well.