Game: Clemson Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks

Date: November 29th at 12:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: SEC Network

Rivalry Week is upon us, and kicking things off in the noon slot on Saturday is the Palmetto Bowl between Clemson and South Carolina. Based on preseason expectations, this matchup had the potential to carry playoff implications, but that’s unfortunately not the case. Even so, we should still get a heated rivalry game in Columbia, even if the stakes aren’t quite as high this year.

Clemson enters at 6-5 after cruising past Furman at home last week. The Tigers’ offense has been fairly average, posting 399.2 yards per game (52nd in FBS) and 27.1 points per game (60th). Defensively, they’ve been a bit stronger, allowing 355.2 yards per game (47th) and 22.1 points per game (34th).

South Carolina, meanwhile, has been inconsistent throughout the season but has shown fight in games where they were heavy underdogs. The Gamecocks sit at 4-7 and are officially out of bowl contention. Their offense has struggled significantly, averaging 336.1 yards per game (97th) and 22 points per game (95th). The defense, however, has held up reasonably well, allowing 355.1 yards per game (46th) and 22.7 points per game (41st).

Even though the numbers don’t quite stack up in South Carolina’s favor, their tougher schedule keeps this matchup closer than it appears on paper. This one has all the makings of a tight rivalry finish on Saturday afternoon.

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Weather

The afternoon in Columbia will be mild, with temperatures in the low 50s and just a 7% chance of rain. Winds should be modest as well, averaging around 6 mph with occasional gusts up to 12 mph.

Betting Overview

At the start of the preseason, Clemson opened as 5.5-point favorites, but with neither team living up to expectations this year, South Carolina now sits as a 2.5-point favorite. Clemson has shifted from -205 to +120 on the moneyline, while South Carolina has moved from +170 to -138. The total has also taken a significant drop, falling from 53.5 to 46.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: To no surprise these teams are very close in the FPI model, with South Carolina at 27th giving 10.8 points to the FBS average, while Clemson sits at 33rd giving 9.2 to the field average.  With this model having the Gamecocks close to 2-point favorites on a neutral field, we should see them as slightly heavier favorites.
  • SP+: This model is pretty similar on Clemson as they are 36th and are giving 9.2 points to the FBS average.  South Carolina on the other hand is a lot lower at 50th, giving only 6.1 points to the field average.  Based on this, we would actually see Clemson as slight favorites in this matchup.

Betting Trends

Over the last seven meetings in this rivalry, Clemson has won five and covered in four, with the under-hitting in five of those seven matchups. Last season, South Carolina won outright, covered, and the under cashed.

Clemson enters this matchup 4–7 ATS, but they’ve been much stronger on the road at 3–1 ATS, including a 1–0 mark as an away underdog. However, they are 0–3 ATS in non-conference play. Totals have leaned to the under, hitting in six of eleven games. On the road, the under has hit in three of four with the other resulting in a push, and it also hit in their lone game as a road underdog. In non-conference contests, the under hit twice with one push.

South Carolina sits at 6–5 ATS, including a 3–3 record at home, a 2–2 mark as a home favorite, and a 2–1 record in non-conference play. The under has also hit in six of their eleven games. At home, totals have split 3–3, and they’ve split 2–2 as home favorites. In non-conference matchups, the under has hit in two of three.

Final Thoughts

Rivalry games are always difficult to predict, especially in the Palmetto Bowl. If I had to choose a side, I’d lean toward South Carolina finding a way to pull this one out. The total feels like the clearer angle, as the under appears to be the smart play here.