Club World Cup Groups Preview
Group A is the tightest of all eight sections and the only one without a minus money favorite to come out on top of the four teams.
It also houses the host side Inter Miami, which means we will see Lionel Messi in action. Can he inspire the side he captains to a place in the last 16? It is unlikely in my opinion, but if they can make the most of home advantage, get Messi on the ball, then they do have an outside chance, especially if his former Barcelona teammates keep fit and offer support.
There aren’t many European sides I would like to take on at this stage of the competition, but Porto provides the best opportunity to do so. They finished 11 points adrift of champions Sporting and nine behind runners-up Benfica in what is traditionally a three-horse race.
Brazilian side Palmeiras, who lifted the Copa Libertadores in 2021, could take advantage and are an attractive looking +188 to top the group. They are used to winning, having claimed the Serie A title in 2022 and 2023 before finishing runners-up last term. I look forward to seeing winger Estêvão in his final games for the club before he heads for the English Premier League and a new career with Chelsea.
It would be a surprise if Egyptian side Al Ahly made the top two, but their outcomes against their group rivals could be decisive.
- Palmeiras; 2. Porto; 3. Inter Miami; 4. Al Ahly.
Group B sees an early meeting between two of European soccer’s best. Paris Saint-Germain will have to swiftly refocus, having claimed their first Champions League trophy with a 5-0 thrashing of Inter Milan. The biggest margin of victory in Europe’s top soccer competition, and with the youngest squad to do so in 30 years.
That sounds like just the challenge for Diego Simeone and his men, who have often revelled in the tag of underdog over the years. Last season, Atlético put a run of 15 straight wins together and were very unlucky to be eliminated from the Champions League at the hands of their city rivals.
The clash on June 15th will likely determine who tops the group and who goes through as runner-up, although if they take their other group rivals lightly, there could be a massive upset. Seattle Sounders have the benefit of playing all three fixtures on home soil and will call on their memories of winning the CONCACAF Champions Cup (League) in 2022.
As current Copa Libertadores and the Brazilian Serie A champions, Botafogo will be no pushovers, but the loss of Luiz Henrique is impactful, and it is expected three more of their players will be heading for England to assist Nottingham Forest’s European campaign.
- PSG; 2. Atlético Madrid; 3. Seattle Sounders; 4. Botafogo.
Group C sees the biggest chasm in ranking between group rivals. European powerhouse Bayern Munich meet Auckland City in the second fixture of the Club World Cup – separated by close to 5,000 places in the World order.
Vincent Kompany reclaimed the Bundesliga title in his first season with Bayern, but his side were unconvincing on the European stage. There were defeats to Aston Villa, Barcelona, Feyenoord and Inter Milan, and they narrowly escaped elimination from the competition by Celtic.
They will need to be a lot better here to go deep and live up to their billing as third favorites, although probably won’t break a sweat to qualify.
Expect them to finish ahead of Portuguese side Benfica, who have been consistent performers on the European stage for several seasons now, and on their day can beat anyone. The meeting between the two will be interesting. It could be a shoot-out between Harry Kane and a player I really rate, Vangelos Pavlidis, who hit 29 goals and provided 11 assists across all competitions.
Boca Juniors fall short of their European rivals but will be confident of at least securing a win when they face the New Zealand minnows. Miguel Ángel Russo is tasked with causing an upset (or two) in his third spell with the club.
As for Auckland, I would be stunned if they so much as score a goal – but would love to see it!
- Bayern Munich; 2. Benfica; 3. Boca Juniors; 4. Auckland
Group D sees Chelsea as the odds-on favorite to finish top. The Blues won the Champions League in 2021 and became the first club to win all five European trophies by lifting the Europa Conference League last month. A young side that finally got the job done and qualified for the Champions League last season. Tthat means they can continue their rebuild and add the top talent from around the globe to their squad. Enzo Maresca’s side is just behind the leading contenders in this competition, but such is the talent at his disposal that they could beat anyone they face and will surely top this group.
They will meet an ex-player in the form of Felipe Luis, who is now the manager of Flamengo and who has already put three trophies on the shelf in his first year in charge. The Brazilians have an exciting attack and sturdy defense – they will pounce on any slip-ups from the English side.
Keeping the ex-Chelsea player theme going, Los Angeles FC includes Olivier Giroud in their ranks and finds themselves here because of multi-club ownership rules preventing Club Léon from participating. A come-from-behind play-off win, Club América sees LAFC become the third MLS side to line up.
Although ES Tunis is the most successful club in Tunisia, having won the title in eight of the last nine season,s finishing anywhere but bottom would be a big achievement.
- Chelsea; 2. Flamengo; 3. LAFC; 4. ES Tunis
Group E is another that looks set to be topped by a European side. Inter Milan have had a season of close but no cigar, finishing one point behind Serie A winners Napoli, losing both domestic cup finals (to city rivals AC), and finally suffered humiliation in the Champions League final, conceding five times to PSG. The only reason they don’t progress here is that they are feeling sorry for themselves and just want to have a break ahead of the new campaign. However, with head coach Simone Inzaghi immediately leaving, minds should be focused on the incoming Christian Chivu, their former no-nonsense defender. Inter won this competition in 2010 and, given their consistent season, they are fourth favorites to win it again. I would be surprised if they can lift themselves to do that, but do expect them to top this group.
Following them in second place for me will be River Plate, with both sides meeting in the last group game. A solid campaign and they are tough to beat – I have already got my eye on that head-to-head clash for a big unders bet!
Monterrey will be leaning heavily on experience to try and spring an upset. The most familiar of several former La Liga players being Real Madrid legend Sergio Ramos. While Domènec Torrent patrols the technical area for them, having built his reputation assisting Pep Guardiola at three separate clubs.
All that said, it seems to be a battle not to finish bottom on MD3 as they face Urawa Reds, who have built their foundations on a strong defense, although the considerable hike in level of opponent is sure to be too much for them here.
- Inter Milan; 2. River Plate; 3. Monterrey; 4. Urawa Reds
Group F sees my pick to win the tournament, Borussia Dortmund. They have been revitalised under new manager Niko Kovač and bring a six-game winning streak into the competition. I would be shocked if that isn’t a run of nine come the knockout stages. They score goals for fun, at least three in each of those wins and could have a field day here against what looks like a weak group on paper. In Serhou Guirassy, they have one of the most in-form strikers on the planet, and after bagging a hat trick against Barcelona in the Champions League, he will fancy his chances of scoring a few more here.
Who joins them in the round of 16? Well, Fluminense are next best at +200 to win the group, but I am taking a chance on the outsiders of the four teams, Mamelodi Sundowns.
The South African champions are +500 to finish in the top two, and I think that is big value. They recently won an eighth successive Premier League and missed out on a first CAF Champions League win in nearly a decade after losing in the final. Averaging over 2.5 points per game and a win ratio of 86%, this team is used to coming out on top and defeating teams like Al-Ahly en route to that final, showing they are not just domestic bullies.
Fluminense competed in the last Club World Cup, getting swatted aside 4-0 by Manchester City and have deteriorated considerably since then. They don’t have a main striker, tending to share the goals around and have a very familiar face at the back, 40-year-old Thiago Silva.
How Ulsan is not the outsider, I am not sure. They were eliminated from the AFC Champions League after losing six of their seven fixtures, while having played four times in this tournament, they are yet to pick up a point.
- Borussia Dortmund; 2. Mamelodi Sundowns; 3. Fluminense; 4. Ulsan
Group G is the home of Premier League heavyweights Manchester City. A season where they were regularly mocked saw them still finish third in the Premier League and reach the final of the FA Cup. A sign of their incredibly high standards that can be classified as a disaster. Ballon d’Or winner Rodri will get game time here to showcase why he was so massively missed, Erling Haaland seems fit and ready to fire as he did on international duty last week and Omar Marmoush took no time to settle, firing seven goals in 14 league appearances. Despite all the murmurings, the traders have City as third favorites to win the competition, and they will surely blow away their opening two opponents before a showdown with Juventus in the final group game.
The Italian side beat Pep’s men 2-0 in Turin on Match Day 6 of the Champions League, but that was at the height of their slump, and revenge could be on the menu here. All the same, Igor Tudor’s men should claim second place in the group and will no doubt be tough to beat. They lost a league-low four games in Serie A this season, a trait which could see them creep deep into the competition.
Moroccan outfit Wydad AC and Al Ain from the United Arab Emirates will fight it out for third and fourth.
- Man City; 2. Juventus; 3. Wydad AC; 4. Al Ain
Group H is the final group and where we find the kings of this competition in its former guise. Real Madrid have lifted this trophy on five separate occasions, all of which have come since 2014. Similarly to Manchester City, Los Blancos have had a disappointing season, failing to claim any major silverware. Even so, the traders are taking no chances, and the Spanish giants are the +400 favorites to win a sixth Club World Cup. The likes of Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Jr and Jude Bellingham will all no doubt be amongst the goals. While at the other end, an injury-ravaged defense has been patched up by the early arrivals of Trent Alexander-Arnold and Dean Huijsen. There will be another new face too. Legendary manager Carlo Ancelotti has left to take charge of the Brazilian national team to be replaced by Xabi Alonso. After impressing at a Bayer Leverkusen side, he got to punch well above their weight It will be interesting to see how he deals with the expectation at Madrid.
There can be nothing else on the menu other than three wins for Alonso’s men, they have beaten all three group rivals since 2022, scoring 13 goals across those three fixtures. Al-Hilal gave them the best game of the three, and I can see the Saudi Arabian side following them to the knockout stages here. A price of +125 looks like great value for them to finish in the top two of Group H.
With former Inter manager Simone Inzaghi in the technical area, it is clear they will be well coached, and he has plenty of raw materials to work with. Top scorer Aleksandar Mitrovic is one of several former English Premier League players in the squad, joined by the likes of João Cancelo and Rúben Neves as well as other familiar names such as Renan Lodi and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic.
Salzburg were the third best in a poor Austrian league and lost seven of their eight Champions League fixtures. For context, Pachuca would be in the bottom third of the English Championship based on ratings and were terrible in their 2024/25 domestic campaign. It looks like zero points for them.
1. Real Madrid; 2. Al-Hilal; 3. Salzburg; 4. Pachuca
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