Matt Grissom, frequent VSiN guest on the topic of college baseball betting, offers his top plays for Monday, June 2.

As we approach the final day of eliminations, we’ve entered into the territory of “throw everything you’ve got available.” We even saw West Virginia’s ace Griffin Kirn come in to close in yesterday’s win over Kentucky. That being said, while most of my handicapping is usually dependent on the starting pitchers, today won’t be the case, as most will be irrelevant because we’ll likely only see the “starters” for an inning or two. Now that I’ve done some due diligence, let’s bet the bases.

North Carolina / Ole Miss ML Parlay (-118)

When looking at these two heavy favorites to win their regionals at home, I’m looking specifically at offensive strength and bullpen depth. For the Tar Heels, they beat Oklahoma in wRC+ by 15%, and their bullpen ranks 10th in xFIP (third in xFIP over their last 10 games) compared to 29th and 172nd over their last 10. For Ole Miss, they’re 5% better in wRC+ and rank fifth in XFIP to the Racers’ 57th-ranked pen. Murray State has an advantage in xFIP over the last 10, but their SOS likely inflates that success.

Southern Miss ML (-166) vs. Miami

If there was one team that I had confidence in coming from the losers bracket to win, it is Southern Miss. Our website makes them a -167 favorite, so spot on with what the odds are. Southern Miss is 42% more productive on offense by wRC+ and they are 34th in xFIP out of the pen compared to Miami’s rank of 55th. Over their last 10, Miami ranks 123rd, meanwhile Southern Miss is 17th. The Hurricanes will also have to battle the crowd of Hattiesburg behind the Golden Eagles, who are riding high after a 17-6 win over Miami last night.

Wake Forest +2.5 (-105) vs. Tennessee

The Demon Deacs showed a ton of life in last night’s gusty win in a walk-off walk with bases loaded. Tennessee’s pitching staff outside of Liam Doyle can’t be trusted. As hot as Wake has been the last two days, it makes me believe they’re a live dog to win this game outright, but I’ll gladly take the 2.5 runs. Tennessee is 10% better in wRC+ and has the better bullpen, but over the last 10 games, Wake’s offense has been the 15th best in the country compared to Tennessee’s 50th. In my opinion, this is worth a bet, especially for anyone holding Tennessee futures tickets to win it all or to make the CWS, which I have.

In closing, I want to thank all of the VSIN subscribers who have shown interest in my college baseball write-ups, as well as thank VSIN for giving me the platform to provide them throughout the season. After increasing support for more plays, I’ve now been able to write up a total of 24 plays throughout the season, with the bulk of them coming over the last few days, pushing my overall record on VSIN write-up plays to 16-8, +7.9 units. Your support and craving for college baseball content made it happen, so thank you! Let’s keep it going!

Remember that before placing any regional bets, go download the College Baseball Insiders Regional Guide by visiting vsin.com/cws! 

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