We’ve advanced another day in the conference tournaments. It’s Friday, and some of the Power Five leagues are down to their semifinals. The rest finally see their top teams take the court for their quarterfinals. The intensity is ramping up as we race toward Selection Sunday. Let’s take a look at all of the conference tournament trends in play for today, right from the two articles I published earlier in the week. Hopefully, this saves you time and effort, as well as earns you some winners. I will continue to do this for the next couple of days as well. 

Let’s get started by reviewing the three basic conference tournament systems I offered up for this season: 

1) Heading into the 2026 action, conference tournament favorites off a bye were 394-121 SU and 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: UAB, Tulsa, Saint Louis, Dayton, VA Commonwealth, St Joseph’s, Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State (Note Big Trend bye data below), Howard, Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas, Utah Valley State, Cal Baptist 

2) Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Connecticut 

3)Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020!Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Iowa State

Here are the trends in play for each conference. Note that all trend records were as of heading into the 2026 games and don’t include any earlier results from this week:

Power Five Conferences

ACC

·   Big favorites of 5.5 points or more have been nearly automatic in the ACC tournament of late, 61-8 SU and 40-28-1 ATS (58.8%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Duke

·   ACC semifinal underdogs are 14-21 SU but 25-7-3 ATS (78.1%) since 2007, and 12-2-1 ATS since 2017. Both won ATS again a year ago.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Miami (FL), Clemson

·   Lower-totaled ACC tournament contests, or those 140 or less, have shown a penchant for going Over, 35-20 (63.6%) since 2016.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: OVER the total in Clemson-Duke

BIG 12

·  Mid-level favorites of -4 to -9.5 in the Big 12 bracket have gone 33-13 SU but just 20-26 ATS (43.5%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Against Arizona, Houston

·  Big 12 semifinal favorites are on a 19-3 SU and 16-6 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2013.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Arizona, Houston

· Teams winning by single-digits in a Big 12 tourney game have gone just 12-32 SU and 16-28 ATS (36.4%) in the follow-up tourney contest since ’16.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: BOTH Houston & Kansas won by single digits on Thursday

BIG EAST

·  Big East tourney favorites in the -5 to -9.5 range have been vulnerable, 25-13 SU but 13-25 ATS (34.2%) over the last 12 seasons, although they did go 2-0 SU and ATS last year.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Against St. John’s

·  Big East semifinal dogs have been a very profitable play of late, 9-11 SU but 15-5 ATS (75%) since 2015.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Seton Hall, Georgetown

·  Teams that win a Big East tourney game comfortably (by 8 points or more), haven’t followed up that performance with another good one, going 17-25 SU and 16-26 ATS (38.1%) in the next round.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: ALL FOUR Big East Semifinal teams won their quarterfinal contests by double digits

BIG TEN

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·  Heavy favorites of -6.5 points or more are on a 23-1 SU and 14-10 ATS (58.3%) run in the Big Ten tournament.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Michigan, Illinois

·  Teams that are off a bye in the Big Ten tournament are 25-14 SU but 13-28-2 ATS (31.7%) versus teams that already played since 2018. This makes it one of the few leagues where having a bye hasn’t proven all that beneficial.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Against Michigan, Illinois, Nebraska, Michigan State

SEC

·  Lines of 7 points or more should be noted for two reasons in the SEC tourney. First off, favorites in these games are on a 37-8 SU and 27-16-2 ATS (62.8%) run since 2014, and second, these games have gone Under the total at a 30-14-1 (68.2%) rate.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Florida, Alabama, and UNDER in Kentucky-Florida & Ole Miss-Alabama games

·  Of the last 31 SEC tourney games expected to be highly competitive (favorites of -3 or less), 19 have gone Over the total (61.3%).
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: OVER the total in Tennessee-Vanderbilt

·  The bye has proven important in the SEC tournament of late, as rested teams are on a 38-14 SU and 30-22 ATS (57.7%) run versus teams that have already played.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Florida, Vanderbilt, Alabama, Arkansas

Mid-Major Conferences

ATLANTIC 10

·  Atlantic 10 favorites are on a run of 23-5 SU and 20-8 ATS (71.4%) in the quarterfinal round.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Saint Louis, Dayton, VA Commonwealth, St Josephs

·  A-10 totals of 144 or higher have been predictably high scoring, going 22-10 Over the total (68.8%) since 2014, including 4-0 in 2025.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: OVER the total in George Washington-Saint Louis & Duquesne-VA Commonwealth games

BIG WEST

·  Since the recent expansion of the Big West tournament back in 2021, teams off byes in earlier rounds have gone 11-3 SU and 8-6 ATS (57.1%).
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Hawaii, UC-Irvine

·  There has been a significant benchmark line point in recent years of the Big West tourney, and that has been 7.5 points. Favorites of 7.5 points or more are 19-2 SU and 12-8-1 ATS (60%) since 2014, while underdogs of 7 points or less have gone 37-25-3 ATS (59.7%) in that same span.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: UNDERDOGS (lines) are CS-Northridge (+4.5), CS-Fullerton (+4.5)

CONFERENCE USA

·  In Conference USA’s ever-changing field, favorites have been a reliable wager over the last 10 years, going 73-28 SU and 61-39-1 ATS (61%) during that stretch. Those laying 7 points or more are on a 24-3 SU and 20-7 ATS (74.1%) run.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: FAVORITES (lines) are Louisiana Tech (-1.5), Sam Houston State (-3.5)

·  Conference USA tournament games have gone Under the total at a 41-27 (60.3%) rate since 2018. Those with totals of more than 147 are on a 19-7 Under (73.1%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: UNDER the total in Missouri State-Louisiana Tech (134.5) & Kennesaw State-Sam Houston State (161.5) games

MID-AMERICAN

·  Favorites of 4.5 points or more in the MAC tourney boast a record of 39-6 SU since 2017, to go along with a respectable ATS record of 26-18-1 (59.1%). Favorites of 4 points or fewer are on a 9-16 SU and 6-19 ATS skid (24%).
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: ON Akron (-6.5), AGAINST Toledo (-2.5)

· The semifinal round of the MAC tournament has been the most predictable as far as totals are concerned, 13-7 Under the total (65%) since 2014.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: UNDER the total in Massachusetts-Toledo & Kent State-Akron games

MID-EASTERN ATHELTIC

· MEAC Semifinal favorites are on an 11-4 SU and 10-5 ATS (66.7%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Howard, NC Central

MOUNTAIN WEST

· Since 2011, Mountain West Conference tourney favorites of 5.5-points or less are on a 46-25 ATS (64.8%) surge. Only five of the last 34 such games have resulted in outright upsets.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: San Diego State

· MWC Semifinal favorites are on a current run of 16-4 SU and 14-6 ATS (70%).
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Utah State, San Diego State

· Lofty totals of more than 150 in the MWC tourney are on a 9-2 Under (81.8%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Watch total in New Mexico-San Diego State (149.5 as of press time)

SOUTHWESTERN ATHLETIC

· SWAC semifinal favorites boast a record of 18-3 SU and 14-6-1 ATS (70%) since 2014.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Prairie View, Southern U

· The last four SWAC tournaments have been generally lower-scoring brackets, with 19 of 30 games going Under (63.3%). Of those 30 games, those with totals of 134+ are on a 12-4 Under (75%) surge.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: UNDER the total in Prairie View-Alabama A&M (142.5) & Southern U-Florida A&M (144.5) games

WESTERN ATHLETIC

· WAC teams coming off an earlier round bye and have been favored have gone 15-1 SU and 12-4 ATS (75%).
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: Utah Valley State, Cal Baptist·   Only three WAC tournament underdogs of 3 points or more have won outright in the last 12 years, going 3-57 SU and 22-38 ATS (36.7%), including 0-8 SU and 2-6 ATS a year ago.
Qualifying plays for Friday 3/13: AGAINST TX-Arlington, Utah Tech

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