There are many college basketball bettors and fans who consider the madness of March more than just the NCAA tournament. They believe the entire month showcases great basketball action and not just the Big Dance, as the conference tourneys, even the mid-majors, should get the blood pumping. I know many colleagues in the industry that prefer the next two weeks because of the sheer volume of games, as well as the familiarity of opponents that the conference tournament weeks bring. In fact, some professional bettors spend much more time, resources, and bankroll on the conference tourneys than they do on the NCAA’s, NIT, CIT, and CBI combined, and for those of you who might behave similarly, I offer up the following betting trends for every conference tournament about to occur.

This will be a 3-part series, with the mid-major conferences starting tournament games on dates of this week (Monday 3/2 to be exact) included in this article, and those playing next week (starting 3/9) in the next piece. The third and final part will include all of the key info for the Power 5 conferences, which will also start up on March 10th.

The angles I have chosen to examine focus on three key areas, with combinations of these in some cases. Those areas were bye games, rounds, and line ranges.

As a general thought to get you started, bettors should understand the value of having a bye in conference tournaments is typically significant, especially when they are believed to be the better team. In fact, conference tournament favorites off a bye are 394-121 SU and 274-233 ATS (54%) over the last six seasons against teams that played earlier in that tournament. That is a winning wager without anything else considered. Remember that when you try to project chances for upsets earlier in these tournaments, especially if you are led to believe the underdog may have picked up momentum from beating a lesser team in a “play-in” type of game. 

That system aside, while looking for something valuable to add to this annual piece, I was able to find two incredible systems that have developed in recent years of conference tournament action regarding extreme scoring totals from the prior game’s win. They read as follows:

  1. Conference tournament favorites coming off a tourney win scoring 90 points or more are on an incredible 73-16 SU and 64-24-1 ATS (72.7%) run dating back to 2017!
  2. Conference tournament underdogs coming off a tourney win allowing 55 points or fewer are on a brutal 29-92 SU and 43-77 ATS (35.8%) skid dating back to 2020!

In short, offenses tend to carry the day in these conference tournaments; react accordingly.

Note: All of these betting systems included games heading into the respective 2026 tournaments. 

The leagues covered in this first piece include:

AMERICA EAST – Starts March 7

ATLANTIC SUN – Starts March 4

BIG SKY – Starts March 7

BIG SOUTH – Starts March 4

COASTAL ATHLETIC – Starts March 6

HORIZON LEAGUE – Starts March 2

METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC – Starts March 6

MISSOURI VALLEY – Starts March 5

NORTHEAST – Starts March 4

OHIO VALLEY – Starts March 4

PATRIOT LEAGUE – Starts March 3

SOUTHERN – Starts March 6

SOUTHLAND – Starts March 8

SUMMIT – Starts March 4

SUN BELT – Starts March 3

WEST COAST – Starts March 5

For my latest strength ratings, including Power Ratings, Effective Strength indicators, Bettors’ Ratings, Recent Ratings, and Schedule Strengths, visit the NCAAMBB MAKINEN POWER RANKINGS page on VSiN.com, sortable by conference, or see our special conference-by-conference tournament pages.

AMERICA EAST

Key Trend(s)

  • Double-digit road underdogs in the quarterfinal round of the America East tourney are on an 11-4-1 ATS (73.3%) surge
  • Small favorites of -4.5 points or less are 16-5 SU and 15-6 ATS (71.4%) in the America East tournament since 2015.
  • Nine of the last 11 (81.8%) America East championship games went Under the total

ATLANTIC SUN

Key Trend(s)

  • Single-digit underdogs in the Atlantic Sun tournament are 27-29 SU but 36-18-2 ATS (66.7%) since 2014, while double-digit favorites are on a 35-2 SU and 19-16-2 ATS (54.3%) surge in that same span.
  • Home teams in the Atlantic Sun semifinal games are 15-7 SU but just 8-14 ATS (36.4%) in their last 22 tries

BIG SKY

Key Trend(s)

  • Single-digit favorites in the Big Sky tourney are on an amazing 59-18 SU and 49-27-1 ATS (64.5%) run since 2015, including 7-2 SU and ATS last season.
  • Lower totals of 140 or less in the Big Sky tourney have gone Over at a 22-7 (75.9%) rate since 2016.

BIG SOUTH

Key Trend(s)

  • Favorites over 7 points or more have been very successful in the Big South tourney since 2014, going 33-5 SU and 22-16 ATS (57.9%)
  • In the quarterfinal round of the Big South tournament, teams off a first-round bye taking on teams that already played are on a 23-7 SU and 19-10-1 ATS (65.5%) run, including 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS in the last 15.

COASTAL ATHLETIC

Key Trend(s)

  • Over the last four CAA tournaments, favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are 6-5 SU but 1-10 ATS (9.1%)
  • Teams off a bye taking on teams that already played in the CAA tourney are on a 27-6 SU and 19-14 ATS (57.6%) run over the last 12 years.

HORIZON LEAGUE

Key Trend(s)

  • Teams playing as underdogs of 6 points or more and having played already in the Horizon League tournament are on an amazing 11-9 SU and 15-5 ATS (75%) run against teams that enjoyed a bye! This is one of the few conferences where having a bye has not proven advantageous.
  • Eleven of the last 16 Horizon League Tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (68.8%).
  • Home favorites priced at 5 points or fewer are on an incredible 16-0 SU and ATS (100%) streak in the Horizon League tourney since 2014, including 2-0 SU and ATS last year with Cleveland State and Youngstown State earning wins.

METRO ATLANTIC ATHLETIC

Key Trend(s)

  • The smallest of favorites have been the most successful of late in the MAAC tournament, with those laying 2 points or fewer going 16-2 SU and 15-3 ATS (83.3%) since 2014.
  • Other single-digit MAAC tourney favorites (-2.5 or higher) are just 35-28 SU but 23-38-2 ATS (37.7%) since 2017.
  • Byes have not been a huge reward lately for the MAAC’s top teams, as those teams off of byes playing against teams that have played already are just 13-10 SU but 8-14-1 ATS (36.4%) since 2016 in this bracket.
  • The last five Metro Atlantic tourneys have trended massively Under on totals, 37-17 (68.5%) in fact.
  • The highest totaled games (154+) in the MAAC tourney have trended significantly Under, 12-1 (92.3%) in the last 13. However, there hasn’t been such a game since 2018.

MISSOURI VALLEY

Key Trend(s)

  • Only three of the 47 underdogs of 6.5-points or more in the MVC tourney since 2014 have won outright, and have gone 16-31 ATS (34%) in those games.
  • The MVC tourney is typically a low-scoring bracket, and over the last 10 seasons, on totals of 131.5 or higher, Under is on a 46-22 (67.6%) run.
  • Favorites in the MVC tournament championship game have gone 13-1 outright and are 12-1-1 ATS (92.3%) since 2013!

NORTHEAST

Key Trend(s)

  • Eighteen of the last 24 quarterfinal games in the Northeast Conference tourney went Under the total (75%), including 3-1 a year ago.
  • Underdogs in the Northeast Conference tourney championship game are on a 16-3 ATS (84.2%) run, including 13 outright upsets. In the 2025 title game, St Francis (+11.5) upset Central Connecticut, 46-43.

OHIO VALLEY

Key Trend(s)

  • Teams that have had the advantage of an earlier round bye are on a 24-4 SU and 17-11 ATS (60.7%) surge in the OVC bracket.
  • Totals in the 150’s in the Ohio Valley tournament have gone 10-2 Under (83.3%) in the last 12 chances.
  • Thirteen of the last 18 OVC tournament semifinal games have gone Under the total (72.2%).
  • Ohio Valley Conference title game underdogs are on a 13-2 ATS (86.7%) run, including SIUE (+3.5), who beat SEMO 69-48 last year.

PATRIOT LEAGUE

Key Trend(s)

  • The quarterfinal round of the Patriot League tourney has trended Over on totals, 32-12 (72.7%) in last 44.
  • Patriot League tourney games with totals above 139 have trended sharply Over recently, going 32-11-1 Over the total (74.4%) since 2014. 
  • Teams that have won in the first round of the Patriot League tournament are just 3-16 SU but 11-8 ATS (57.9%) in the quarterfinals versus teams that enjoyed a bye.

SOUTHERN CONFERENCE

Key Trend(s)

  • Single-digit favorites in the opening round of the Southern Conference tournament are on a 23-8 SU and 22-9 ATS (71%) run since 2011.
  • The SoCon quarterfinal round has been lower scoring of late, 14-6 Under the total (70%) in the last five tournaments.
  • The Southern Conference tourney semifinals are on a 17-7 Over the total run (70.8%).

SOUTHLAND

Key Trend(s)

  • Teams that have had the advantage of an earlier round bye are on a 26-8 SU and 23-11 ATS (67.6%) surge in the Southland bracket since 2017.
  • The Southland Conference tourney has been a favorite-dominated bracket of late, with small favorites of 4.5 points or fewer doing particularly well, going 29-14 SU and 26-17 ATS (60.5%) since 2014.
  • Higher totaled games of 142 or higher have trended significantly Under of late in the Southland tourney, 24-8 (75%) since 2017.
  • The favorite in the Southland Conference tourney title game is on a 14-3 SU and 11-5-1 ATS (68.8%) run dating back to 2008.

SUMMIT LEAGUE

Key Trend(s)

  • Over the last two Summit League tournaments, Under the total is 13-3 (81.3%).
  • Historically, the most extreme of totals in the Summit League tournament of late have trended Under as well, with totals >=153.5 at 15-7 Under (68.2%) since 2016, and totals <=130 at 9-2 Under (81.8%) since 2014.
  • Favorites in the Summit League have had a strong run over the last five years, going 36-10 SU and 26-18 ATS (59.1%) overall.

SUN BELT

Key Trend(s)

  • With one of the most unusual brackets of any league around, getting a bye in the Sun Belt tournament hasn’t been very advantageous recently, as teams that did are 22-12 SU but 14-20 ATS (41.2%) against teams that didn’t over the last six years.
  • Small favorites in the Sun Belt have been money of late, as those laying 4.5-points or less are 37-16 SU and 32-20-1 ATS (61.5%) dating back to 2016.
  • Underdogs in the +5 to +9.5 range are on a current run of 19-8 ATS (70.4%) in Sun Belt tourney action,
  • Totals above 146 have trended Under of late in the Sun Belt tournament, 20-9 Under the total (69%) since 2017.

WEST COAST

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Key Trend(s)

  • West Coast teams that had a bye in earlier round(s) are on a tremendous 31-7 SU and 22-15-1 ATS (59.5%) run.
  • WCC favorites in the semifinal and championship rounds are on a 22-14 ATS (61.1%) run.
  • The sweet spot for betting favorites in the WCC tourney is in the -6 to -12 line range, 26-4 SU and 23-6-1 ATS (79.3%) in last 30.
  • West Coast Conference tourney totals of 147 or higher have been explosive lately, going Over the total at a 27-12-1 (69.2%) rate, while producing about 156.8 PPG on average.

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