Friday brings us 34 games and all of them are important. Some will keep the dream alive. Some matter for seeding. We’ve also got a full dance card, with games from 11 a.m. ET to Midnight ET. We won’t have any bids handed out tonight, but we do have semifinal action in a few conference tourneys and those are going to be hard-fought affairs.
Once again, writing this on Friday morning, I’m restricted to the later games in the interest of lead time, but hopefully you’ve been taking advantage of Greg Peterson and Tyler Shoemaker to help with the early games throughout the season. I’ll be varying up my writing time for the NCAA Tournament to be able to include earlier tip times.
For more college basketball best bets today, check out Greg Peterson’s daily article and Tyler Shoemaker’s TSI Projections/Best Bets on weekdays.
As always, I want to give a shout-out to Bart Torvik (BartTorvik.com), Erik Haslam (Haslametrics.com), and KenPom, as they provide a lot of great data.
This season, we’ve also connected with CBBAnalytics.com to access their data and I’ll be working that into my article. Use promo code VSIN30 for $30 off at CBB Analytics and find your betting edge.
This article will run Monday-Saturday. Lines will be from DraftKings, as they are widely available to readers. Shop around for the best prices.
Check the latest college basketball odds for legal U.S. sportsbooks across the country and our Vegas odds if you share a state with us here at VSiN. Also, give the college basketball betting splits (DraftKings) and Circa CBB Betting Splits a look for these or any other college basketball games today have your interest.
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publish.
Davidson Wildcats vs. St. Joseph’s Hawks (-1.5, 131.5)
Embed from Getty Images7:30 p.m. ET
It has not been a brilliant offensive display at PPG Paints Arena for the A-10 Tournament. This is the first time in a long time that the tourney has been played in this venue. The first game of the day on Wednesday ended with 179 points and the second game had 142 points. But, yesterday’s four games had 128, 120, 128, and 123 (OT), so things have either really tightened up or we’ve found out that shooting is a little bit difficult.
Maybe Davidson has an advantage by having played a game, but I’m really not so sure. Against No. 14 Loyola Chicago, Davidson won 64-59 in OT with a 6-of-24 performance from 3. This was a team that they beat by 15 and 20 in the two regular season meetings, but the Wildcats seemed uncomfortable throughout the game. They take a ton of jumpers and also have the worst FT% in the nation.
The Hawks haven’t played yet on this floor, so we’ll see how it goes, but they’ve been very good in the second half of the season. After starting 8-7, including a home loss to Davidson, St. Joseph’s now sits at 21-10, so they’ve gone on quite the heater. The team actually improved when Deuce Jones II left, as his 32.1% Usage Rate with a 51.1% FG% on Close Twos and a 27.1% 3P% were not helping the offensive efficiency numbers by any means.
St. Joseph’s comes into this game with a higher Rim & 3 Rate. They actually take more 3s than Davidson, but do shoot much worse on them. My expectation is that Steve Donahue pushes his team to get the ball inside as much as possible based on the poor shooting numbers that we saw yesterday. But, I also think that the environment here should help the Hawks, who are 30th in eFG%, 64th in 3P%, and 29th in 2P%. They make life very tough on teams that like to take jumpers, like Davidson.
The Hawks won the regular season rematch 70-67 on the road, but led by as many as 15 in the second half before getting complacent.
Pick: St. Joseph’s -1.5
UT Arlington Mavericks vs. Utah Valley Wolverines (-9.5, 134.5)
9 p.m. ET
It has been a strange week for Utah Valley, as their spot in the WAC Tournament was basically kidnapped and a ransom demand came via the conference overlords. Realignment has created some really messy situations and this has certainly been one of them. Utah Valley put the $1 million required in escrow and took some shots at the conference in their statement, but the players are going to try and ignore all of that and move one win closer to representing the conference in the NCAA Tournament.
We had three very different games in the regular season between these two. Utah Valley won 86-74 in the first game, followed by an 81-60 win, and then a 66-54 victory. I’m actually grateful for that 66-54 game because I think it has given us some value on the total here. That game featured some horrible finishing around the rim, as Utah Valley was 22-of-42 and UT Arlington was 10-of-25. If you’re giving me 67 shot attempts at the rim, I’m expecting more than 64 points out of that.
The game also featured 49 free throw attempts and only 29 makes, so some points were left on the floor there as well. Also, Utah Valley was 1-of-14 from 3 and UT Arlington was 4-of-15. I think that game was the outlier, while one flew over this total by 25 points and the other one went over despite a poor offensive showing from the Mavericks.
The Wolverines have to have a million-dollar sized chip on their shoulder here and, while their defensive numbers were solid, this is a better offensive team. I think we get this one to go Over the total.
Side note: listen for VSiN personality Ben Wilson on the ESPN+ call for this game.
Pick: Over 134.5
Clemson Tigers vs. Duke Blue Devils (-10.5, 132.5)
9:30 p.m. ET
It’ll be a late one in Charlotte for Clemson and Duke, as this game is the nightcap following Miami vs. Virginia. All four teams are already in the NCAA Tournament, but a little conference tourney hardware and some seeding hang in the balance. In terms of this game, though, based on what we saw from Duke yesterday, I think winning by 11+ will be a chore.
It should be said that Florida State has been really good late in the season and a better start to the year and they’d be playing in the NCAA Tourney next week. Clemson isn’t on that same kind of heater and just lost Carter Welling to a torn ACL, but I think we’ll get a game effort here. Duke got 55 of their 80 points from Cameron Boozer and Isaiah Evans last night, as both guys played 39 minutes.
With a No. 1 seed locked up, I really don’t think Jon Scheyer wants those guys playing that sort of workload for a second straight night with Caleb Foster and Patrick Ngongba already sidelined. Winning a game in Charlotte for the fans, boosters, and anybody else involved with the program was a nice touch and it kept the team sharp, but I’d be surprised if we see Duke out for blood tonight.
In Clemson’s case, Welling owned a 26% Usage Rate and now others will have to step up and replace that production. It’s the third game in three days for Clemson and they are missing a big piece, but Welling had only played 50.2% of the minutes per Torvik, so it’s not like playing without him on the floor is a foreign concept. My guess would be that Clemson speeds up the tempo a bit and the guards become a bit more aggressive. We could also see more 3s, which isn’t a terrible idea since the Tigers shoot above the national average.
Clemson may not win, but I’m sure Brad Brownell wants his team to prove that they can show well without Welling and that should have them invested, whereas I’m not sure where Duke’s motivation level is.
Pick: Clemson +10.5
The post College Basketball Picks for Friday, March 13 from Adam Burke appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment