College Basketball Picks Today:

Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Monday, February 23.

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7:00 PM Eastern

Louisville Cardinals vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Top scorer Caleb Wilson remains out for North Carolina, but they did get Henri Veesaar back on Saturday. He ranks second on the team with 16.5 points and 8.8 rebounds per game and is a big reason the team ranks second in opponent two-point shooting percentage at home. Overall, North Carolina is 51st nationally in points per possession allowed on defense, improving to 16th at home, where they allow 20.5 fewer points per 100 possessions than on the road.

Louisville has been sneaky good defensively as well, ranking 37th in points per possession allowed. North Carolina has massive home and road splits guarding the perimeter, allowing opponents to shoot 30.6% from three-point range at home compared to 39.4% on the road. That is critical considering Louisville attempts 53.1% of its field goals from three-point range, the third-highest percentage in the country.

Picks: North Carolina +3.5 and Under 163.5 (Greg’s Handicap North Carolina +1.5 and Total 157.5)

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Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Southeast Louisiana Lions

Both teams do a good job generating turnovers, with Texas A&M Corpus Christi ranking 43rd in turnovers per possession and Southeast Louisiana 62nd. Offense has been a struggle for both, as Southeast Louisiana ranks 335th in points per possession while Texas A&M Corpus Christi is 324th.

Texas A&M Corpus Christi has the edge on the glass, ranking 120th in defensive rebound percentage, while Southeast Louisiana allows opponents to grab 32.2% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds at home, ranking 334th in defensive rebound percentage at home. The Lions also rank 357th in three-point shooting percentage at 28.4%.

Picks: Texas A&M Corpus Christi -2.5 and Under 132.5 (Greg’s Handicap Texas A&M Corpus Christi -5.5 and Total 130.5)

7:30 PM Eastern

Nicholls Colonels vs. Lamar Cardinals

These two offenses are nearly identical in efficiency, with Lamar ranking 238th in points per possession and Nicholls 239th. Lamar prefers to slow games down, ranking 306th in possessions per game, while Nicholls cuts down clean possessions by ranking 19th in turnovers per possession generated on defense. Lamar has been stronger inside, ranking 58th in rebound percentage and 74th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Pick: Nicholls vs. Lamar Under 147.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 139)

Incarnate Word Cardinals vs. Northwestern State Demons

Northwestern State has struggled on the glass, ranking 326th in rebound percentage, while Incarnate Word rebounds 30.8% of its missed shots as offensive rebounds, ranking 109th nationally. Incarnate Word also ranks 51st in three-point shooting percentage at 36.5%. Northwestern State ranks 281st in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 35.8% and 277th in points per possession allowed on defense. Offensively, Northwestern State ranks 270th in turnovers per possession.

Pick: Incarnate Word +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap Incarnate Word -1)

UT Rio Grande Valley Vaqueros vs. McNeese Cowboys

McNeese has been dominant defensively, ranking 27th in points per possession allowed at home, with its forte being generating turnovers, ranking first nationally in turnovers forced per possession. They face a UT Rio Grande Valley team with massive home and road splits offensively. The Vaqueros shoot just 30.5% from three-point range at home, ranking 322nd, but rank third nationally in road three-point shooting percentage at 41.7%. They are 35th in points per possession away from home, scoring 11.1 more points per 100 possessions on the road than at home — the largest positive home-road split in the nation.

McNeese ranks 65th overall in points per possession and plays at a controlled pace, ranking 289th in total possessions per game. UT Rio Grande Valley ranks 44th in three-point defense at 31.2% and 269th in possessions per game.

Picks: UT Rio Grande Valley +11.5 and Under 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap UT Rio Grande Valley +8.5 and Total 140.5)

Houston Christian Huskies vs. East Texas A&M Lions

Houston Christian plays at a very slow pace, ranking 351st in total possessions per game, but owns one of the least efficient defenses in the nation, ranking 292nd in points per possession allowed. East Texas A&M plays at a quicker pace, ranking 196th in possessions per game, and also struggles defensively, ranking 254th in points per possession allowed while allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from three-point range, ranking 352nd nationally.

Pick: Houston Christian vs. East Texas A&M Over 134.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 139.5)

New Orleans Privateers vs. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks

Stephen F. Austin has one of the strongest defenses in the nation, ranking 20th in points per possession allowed, and looks to slow games down, ranking 280th in possessions per game. New Orleans plays at an uptempo pace, ranking 74th in possessions per game, but squanders possessions, ranking 350th in turnovers per possession on offense. They are also unlikely to get many second chances against a Stephen F. Austin team that allows opponents to grab just 25.3% of their missed shots as offensive rebounds, ranking 54th nationally.

Pick: New Orleans vs. Stephen F. Austin Under 150.5 (Greg’s Handicapped Total 149)

8:00 PM Eastern

Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Grambling Tigers

As bad as Grambling’s turnover issues are — ranking 358th in turnovers per possession on offense — Mississippi Valley State is worse at 359th. Grambling excels at generating turnovers, ranking 20th in turnovers forced per possession, while Mississippi Valley State ranks 170th. That is one of the few strengths Mississippi Valley State has, as they rank 364th in points per possession on offense, 360th in points per possession allowed on defense, and 359th in rebound percentage. Grambling ranks 39th nationally in points per possession allowed at home.

Pick: Grambling -16.5 (Greg’s Handicap Grambling -19.5)

9:00 PM Eastern

Houston Cougars vs. Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas is riding one of the most remarkable streaks in the sport, going 40-0 straight up in Big Monday games under Bill Self. While the double-digit loss to Cincinnati on Saturday was a poor showing, Self’s comments afterward appear to have motivated star freshman Darryn Peterson, who still logged 32 minutes in that game. Kansas ranks 31st in points per possession allowed on defense.

Houston ranks fifth nationally in points per possession allowed overall, but that drops to 40th away from home, where they allow 18.5 more points per 100 possessions than at home. Offensively, Houston is ordinary, ranking 134th in two-point shooting percentage and 178th in three-point shooting percentage at 34%.

Picks: Kansas Moneyline and Under 136.5 (Greg’s Handicap Kansas -2 and Total 134)

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