Expert college basketball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top college basketball picks today for Thursday, January 29.

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6:00 PM Eastern

Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocs

Neither team is playing at a fast tempo, with Wofford ranking 218th and Chattanooga 296th in total possessions per game, but both defenses have struggled. Chattanooga ranks 310th in points per possession allowed, while Wofford is 300th. Plenty of three-point shots should be available in this matchup, as Wofford ranks 318th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 36.8% and Chattanooga is 14th nationally in the percentage of field goal attempts that come from three-point range. Wofford can also capitalize offensively, ranking 33rd in road three-point shooting percentage at 37.8%.

Picks: Chattanooga +1.5 and Over 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap Chattanooga -4 and Total 156)

6:30 PM Eastern

Gardner-Webb Bulldogs vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogs

UNC Asheville is far from a complete team, ranking 334th in turnovers per possession on offense, but this is a favorable matchup against a Gardner-Webb team with some of the worst metrics in the country. Gardner-Webb ranks 361st in points per possession on offense and 363rd in points per possession allowed on defense, while also ranking just 332nd in turnovers generated per possession. That allows more clean possessions for a UNC Asheville offense that ranks 40th nationally in three-point shooting percentage at 37%. Gardner-Webb is also 355th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing 36.3% of opponents’ missed shots to become offensive rebounds.

Picks: UNC Asheville -17.5 and Over 149.5 (Greg’s Handicap UNC Asheville -24.5 and Total 156.5)

7:00 PM Eastern

William & Mary Tribe vs. Elon Phoenix

William & Mary has done an excellent job limiting clean looks from three-point range, ranking 16th in opponent three-point shooting percentage away from home at 29%, and ranks seventh in turnovers generated per possession on defense in road games. However, the Tribe has struggled on the glass, ranking 299th in defensive rebound percentage away from home. Elon ranks 44th in offensive rebound percentage, grabbing 33.8% of its missed shots, and is 57th overall in points per possession and 52nd in two-point shooting percentage. William & Mary ranks just 215th in points per possession away from home and 258th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Pick: Elon +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap Elon -3.5)

Longwood Lancers vs. USC Upstate Spartans

Longwood has failed to execute offensively along the perimeter, ranking 326th in three-point shooting percentage at 30.4%, and ranks 322nd in turnovers per possession on offense. USC Upstate owns a comparable overall defense, ranking 190th in points per possession allowed compared to Longwood’s 196th, but should exploit a Longwood defense that ranks 306th in opponent two-point shooting percentage while USC Upstate ranks 97th offensively inside the arc.

Pick: USC Upstate -1 (Greg’s Handicap USC Upstate -5)

Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Campbell Fighting Camels

Campbell has struggled to take care of the ball, ranking 284th in turnovers per possession, and is just 298th in three-point shooting percentage at 31.3%. They face a Stony Brook team that looks to slow the game down, ranking 265th in possessions per game. Neither offense has been particularly efficient, with Stony Brook ranking 236th in points per possession and Campbell 203rd.

Pick: Stony Brook vs. Campbell Under 152 (Greg’s Handicap Total 145.5)

Western Carolina Catamounts vs. East Tennessee State Buccaneers

East Tennessee State has thrived defensively, ranking 40th in points per possession allowed at home and 51st overall, while ranking 47th in turnovers generated per possession. That pressure should create issues for a Western Carolina offense ranking 267th in turnovers per possession. Western Carolina’s strength on the offensive glass, ranking 84th in offensive rebound percentage, is mitigated by East Tennessee ranking 42nd in defensive rebound percentage. East Tennessee also shoots 37% from three at home compared to 30.6% away, while Western Carolina ranks 346th in opponent three-point shooting percentage at 38%.

Pick: East Tennessee State -10.5 (Greg’s Handicap East Tennessee -15)

7:30 PM Eastern

SIU Edwardsville Cougars vs. Morehead State Eagles

Morehead State has struggled offensively, ranking 356th in turnovers per possession at home and 243rd overall in points per possession. The Eagles also allow too many second chances, ranking 336th in defensive rebound percentage and allowing opponents to rebound 33.9% of missed shots offensively. SIU Edwardsville ranks 20th nationally in points per possession allowed away from home and, despite ranking 280th overall in offensive efficiency, has been 2.9 points per 100 possessions better offensively on the road than at home.

Pick: SIU Edwardsville +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap SIU Edwardsville -4)

Georgia Southern Eagles vs. UL Monroe Warhawks

Both teams look to push the pace, with Georgia Southern ranking 20th and UL Monroe 68th in total possessions per game. UL Monroe’s defense has been one of the shakier units in the country, ranking 344th in points per possession allowed, but the Warhawks have been a respectable three-point shooting team at 34%. Georgia Southern should exploit a defense ranking 285th in opponent three-point shooting percentage and 349th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Pick: Georgia Southern vs. UL Monroe Over 160 (Greg’s Handicap Total 167.5)

8:00 PM Eastern

Oral Roberts Eagles vs. South Dakota Coyotes

South Dakota plays at one of the fastest tempos in the nation, ranking 27th in possessions per game, and has struggled defensively, ranking 320th in points per possession allowed. However, the Coyotes should thrive offensively against an Oral Roberts defense ranking 341st in points per possession allowed. South Dakota should also get to the free-throw line frequently against an Oral Roberts team ranking 300th in free-throw attempts allowed per possession, which benefits a South Dakota offense ranking 78th nationally in free-throw shooting percentage at 75.3%.

Pick: Oral Roberts vs. South Dakota Over 151.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 162)

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. South Alabama Jaguars

South Alabama forces teams to take an extreme number of three-point shots, with 63.7% of opponent field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc, the highest rate in the country, and that number climbs to 68.5% at home. Coastal Carolina has struggled from deep away from home, shooting just 30.8% from three. South Alabama plays at a slower pace, ranking 252nd in possessions per game, and has its own offensive issues, ranking 299th in points per possession at home, but maximizes possessions by ranking 25th in fewest turnovers per possession.

Picks: South Alabama -4.5 and Under 137.5 (Greg’s Handicap South Alabama -7 and Total 131)

Florida Atlantic Owls vs. Memphis Tigers

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Florida Atlantic has been strong on the offensive glass, ranking 52nd in offensive rebound percentage away from home by turning 32.6% of missed shots into offensive rebounds. Memphis ranks 326th in defensive rebound percentage, allowing 33.1% of opponents’ missed shots to become offensive rebounds, and has struggled with execution, ranking 340th in turnovers per possession on offense and 314th in points per possession at home.

Pick: Florida Atlantic +2.5 (Greg’s Handicap Florida Atlantic -2.5)

10:00 PM Eastern

Montana Grizzlies vs. Portland State Vikings

Both teams prefer an uptempo style, with Montana ranking 108th and Portland State 99th in possessions per game. Montana has shot the ball well from three, ranking 25th nationally at 37.7% and improving to 39.8% away from home. Portland State ranks 40th in home two-point shooting percentage and should find open looks against a Montana defense ranking 223rd in points per possession allowed.

Picks: Portland State -3.5 and Over 143.5 (Greg’s Handicap Portland State -3.5 and Total 151.5)

UC San Diego Tritons vs. UC Santa Barbara Gauchos

Neither team pushes tempo, with UC San Diego ranking 196th and UC Santa Barbara 298th in possessions per game, but three-point shooting should be a major factor. UC Santa Barbara ranks second nationally in home three-point shooting percentage at 44.3%, while UC San Diego shoots 34.3% overall and 36.6% away from home. UC Santa Barbara’s defense ranks 289th in points per possession allowed at home and 283rd in opponent three-point shooting percentage, while also ranking 287th in opponent two-point shooting percentage.

Pick: UC San Diego vs. UC Santa Barbara Over 144.5 (Greg’s Handicap Total 153.5)

11:00 PM Eastern

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors vs. UC Irvine Anteaters

Two of the best mid-major defenses meet here, with Hawaii leading the nation in points per possession allowed and UC Irvine ranking 16th. While UC Irvine has struggled offensively, ranking 286th in points per possession compared to Hawaii’s 143rd, the Anteaters hold an edge on the perimeter. Hawaii ranks 249th in three-point shooting percentage at 32.2%, while UC Irvine shoots 33.2% overall and 35.8% away from home. UC Irvine also keeps possessions cleaner, with Hawaii ranking 323rd in turnovers per possession on offense compared to UC Irvine’s 219th.

Pick: UC Irvine +1.5 (Greg’s Handicap UC Irvine -3.5)

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