Like most other sports, the last couple of weeks of the regular season in college basketball are always a crucial time period. It is the point in the season when teams hope to be playing their best as they look to wrap up conference titles or prepare for tournament runs. Make no mistake, I have always found that the teams that typically perform best in this period have had consistent coaching staffs that have strategically prepared their teams to be ready for this time of year. If this logic sounds familiar to you, I often write about a similar situation in the NFL, where the best teams tend to rise up in December and Janury. I believe you’ll find this entire article valuable, starting as soon as tonight, as the final two weeks for the power conferences start Monday, February 23rd, and there are two huge games on tap: Louisville at North Carolina and Houston at Kansas.

If you’ve been with VSiN for a while, this particular article subject is no secret, as I first wrote about it a handful of years ago after looking into late-season home court advantage. I am convinced that there is an enhanced home court advantage at this time of year. That will also prove vital over the next two weeks as we wrap up league play in the major conferences. 

With some regular-season league titles still yet to be determined, and the seeding for all the postseason tournaments not sorted out yet, there is a ton left to play for. And as usual, with so much on the line, the strategy for handicapping the games should change a bit. It is often the case that oddsmakers will sway their lines slightly to reflect the “must-win” mentality of teams in key spots. Alternatively, they may shade the team that is playing out the string, already looking forward to the offseason.

The point spread is always known as the great equalizer for bookmakers, and with so much known about each of the teams by now, those bettors looking to cash tickets in the final two weeks should be aware of some foundational trends and systems that have produced strong results in recent years. Part of that should include late-season performance, especially in cases where coaching situations have remained consistent for teams.

Here, I will break down the results of the final two weeks of the regular season across the power conferences, looking for opportunities to profit in 2026. Since first publishing this analysis, I have come to understand that typically the same programs seem to have arisen as the teams to back at this time of year. Teams like Virginia, Oregon, Kansas, UConn, etc. On the other side of the coin, programs like Georgetown, DePaul, Pittsburgh, Georgia, and even Alabama have continued to flounder in the late season. 

Besides the top and bottom teams lists, which I am about to unveil, you’ll see that there are some very definitive angles for each P5 league that you’re going to be inclined to put to use over the next couple of weeks, primarily as they pertain to home court advantage, pace of play, and recent results between teams in a matchup. 

For the record, the results shown cover games dating back to 2019, or the last seven seasons. The final two weeks of this year’s regular season will include games from Monday, February 23rd, to Sunday, March 8th, so readers will again have 14 full days to take advantage of the findings. You’ll see that I’ve also included a handy chart detailing the records for all the power conference teams in a variety of last two weeks’ scenarios at the conclusion of the piece. You can view that chart here.

Before going any further, it is important that you consider two general handicapping concepts for any game you will play for the duration of the two weeks. For one, home court advantage in the final two regular-season weeks has meant a little more than at any other point in the season. Specifically, over the last eight years, home teams in the Power 5 conferences are 743-427 SU and 618-530 ATS for 53.8% in the final two weeks of the regular season. Almost on cue, teams last year in this situation went 83-70 ATS for 54.2%. Nothing else considered, it has been a long-term profit-making strategy. The other concept is that late-season games in the power leagues have leaned Over on totals, 629-530 (54.3%) over the last eight years, and 343-255 (57.4%) over the last four seasons.

If you’re looking to up that ATS percentage a little more, consider the aspect of revenge. Power conference teams looking to avenge an earlier season loss and playing as home favorites of 6 points or more in the last two weeks of the regular season have gone 96-12 SU and 64-38 ATS (62.7%) since 2018. This situation will come up at various points the rest of the way, so keep it at the forefront of your handicapping.

Top Teams

There have been 11 Power 5 conference teams that have won 70% or more of their games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. They have combined to go 143-94 against the spread (60.3%) as well. They are:

HOUSTON (Big 12): 8-0 SU & 2-6 ATS
CONNECTICUT (Big East): 18-1 SU & 14-4 ATS
BYU (Big 12): 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA (ACC): 23-4 SU & 17-10 ATS
OREGON (Big Ten): 21-6 SU & 15-12 ATS
KENTUCKY (SEC): 20-7 SU & 13-14 ATS
PURDUE (Big Ten): 16-6 SU & 11-11 ATS
CLEMSON (ACC): 20-8 SU & 16-11 ATS
GEORGIA TECH (ACC): 19-8 SU & 23-4 ATS
TENNESSEE (SEC): 19-8 SU & 12-14 ATS
ILLINOIS (Big Ten): 21-9 SU & 13-17 ATS

By no coincidence, many of these programs have had the same coach throughout the study. In my opinion, this makes backing these teams late in the season a fundamentally sound strategy. However, keep in mind that Georgia Tech and Kentucky have newer coaching staffs.

Also of note, four of the teams are under-.500 ATS in these games, something to consider.

There have been 11 different teams that have gone 60% or better ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, and they have combined to go 148-69 ATS, good for 68.2%. They are:

BYU (Big 12): 7-1 SU & 7-1 ATS
GEORGIA TECH (ACC): 19-8 SU & 23-4 ATS
CONNECTICUT (Big East): 18-1 SU & 14-4 ATS
TEXAS A&M (SEC): 15-11 SU & 17-8 ATS
COLORADO (Big 12): 14-9 SU & 15-8 ATS
UCF (Big 12): 4-4 SU & 5-3 ATS
CREIGHTON (Big East): 17-8 SU & 15-9 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA (ACC): 23-4 SU & 17-10 ATS
MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten): 20-9 SU & 18-11 ATS
ARKANSAS (SEC): 17-11 SU & 17-11 ATS
PENN STATE (Big Ten): 13-14 SU & 15-10 ATS

The rest of the 2025-26 season will be a real test for two teams in particular on this list, as Georgia Tech and Penn State are at the bottom of their respective standings as we head down the stretch.

Bottom Teams

There have been 13 Power 5 conference teams that have won 33% or less of their games in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, and their combined ATS record is an ugly 145-187 (43.7%). Those teams are:

MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 6-22 SU & 10-17 ATS
GEORGETOWN (Big East): 6-21 SU & 13-14 ATS
CALIFORNIA (ACC): 7-16 SU & 11-12 ATS
GEORGIA (SEC): 8-19 SU & 13-14 ATS
DEPAUL (Big East): 8-18 SU & 12-14 ATS
BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC): 8-18 SU & 10-14 ATS
LOUISVILLE (ACC): 8-17 SU & 11-14 ATS
TCU (Big 12): 10-21 SU & 13-17 ATS
PITTSBURGH (ACC): 8-17 SU & 10-14 ATS
NC STATE (ACC): 8-17 SU & 9-16 ATS
STANFORD (ACC): 8-16 SU & 13-11 ATS
UTAH (Big 12): 8-16 SU & 10-13 ATS
WAKE FOREST (ACC): 9-18 SU & 10-17 ATS

Interestingly, for 2025-26, NC State and Louisville are the only ones enjoying truly successful seasons. Can they shake off past late-season struggles and finish strong?

There have been 13 teams that have gone 38% or worse ATS in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, they are:

SMU (ACC): 2-2 SU & 1-3 ATS
HOUSTON (Big 12): 8-0 SU & 2-6 ATS
ALABAMA (SEC): 14-14 SU & 9-19 ATS
WASHINGTON STATE (West Coast): 10-10 SU & 7-13 ATS
NC STATE (ACC): 8-17 SU & 9-16 ATS
MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 6-22 SU & 10-17 ATS
WAKE FOREST (ACC): 9-18 SU & 10-17 ATS
IOWA STATE (Big 12): 10-19 SU & 10-17 ATS
MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC): 11-17 SU & 10-16 ATS
SETON HALL (Big East): 10-14 SU & 9-15 ATS
MARQUETTE (Big East): 13-13 SU & 10-16 ATS
XAVIER (Big East): 14-12 SU & 10-16 ATS
KANSAS (Big 12): 17-10 SU & 10-16 ATS

This is an eye-opening list in that there are some real big names on this list, particularly this season. It’s interesting that Houston and Kansas go head-to-head on Monday night. Could the last two weeks of the regular season spell doom to the seeding prospects of those teams or the likes of Alabama, NC State, or Iowa State?

Best Home Teams

There have been 11 teams that have gone 86% or better outright at home in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, and four teams that have gone undefeated at home in that span. These teams have combined to go a remarkable 92-40 against the spread (69.7%) as hosts! They are:

HOUSTON (Big 12): 4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS
MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten): 15-0 SU & 12-3 ATS
CONNECTICUT (Big East): 10-0 SU & 7-2 ATS
BYU (Big 12): 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
GEORGIA TECH (ACC): 11-1 SU & 12-0 ATS
OREGON (Big Ten): 14-2 SU & 11-5 ATS
CLEMSON (ACC): 13-2 SU & 11-3 ATS
ARKANSAS (SEC): 13-2 SU & 8-7 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA (ACC): 13-2 SU & 9-6 ATS
KANSAS (Big 12): 12-2 SU & 7-7 ATS
CREIGHTON (Big East): 12-2 SU & 11-3 ATS

If you’re plotting ahead, note that Georgia Tech, with its 12-0 ATS mark, has two home games left, on 2/28 vs. Florida State, and 3/4 vs. Cal. I will be pointing out more of the opportunities the next two Saturdays in my makeshift analytics reports.

Worst Home Teams

Most of the teams on the “Bottom” list above have enjoyed little to no home-court advantage late in the season. Here are the 12 Power 5 conference teams that have won 46% or fewer of their home games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. Their combined ATS record is a fade-able 68-90 (43.0%).

BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC): 4-10 SU & 6-8 ATS
GEORGETOWN (Big East): 4-10 SU & 8-6 ATS
MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 4-9 SU & 5-7 ATS
GEORGIA (SEC): 5-10 SU & 7-8 ATS
NEBRASKA (Big Ten): 5-8 SU & 7-6 ATS
TCU (Big 12): 6-9 SU & 6-9 ATS
WASHINGTON (Big Ten): 5-7 SU & 5-7 ATS
IOWA STATE (Big 12): 6-8 SU & 4-9 ATS
MISSOURI (SEC): 6-8 SU & 4-10 ATS
VANDERBILT (SEC): 6-8 SU & 7-6 ATS
MIAMI (FL) (ACC): 5-6 SU & 4-6 ATS
FLORIDA (SEC): 6-7 SU & 5-8 ATS

When you consider the 2025-26 prospects for the teams on the “worst home” list, there are some quality programs. Nebraska, Iowa State, Vanderbilt, and Florida are all considered legit national title contenders and all need key wins down the stretch.

Best Road Teams

The ability to win on the road late in the season is typically a strong trait for the best teams across all sports. The same goes for college basketball. Here are the 10 power conference teams to win at least 55% of their road games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018:

HOUSTON (Big 12): 4-0 SU & 1-3 ATS
CONNECTICUT (Big East): 8-1 SU & 7-2 ATS
NORTH CAROLINA (ACC): 10-2 SU & 8-4 ATS
KENTUCKY (SEC): 10-3 SU & 9-4 ATS
BYU (Big 12): 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS
VIRGINIA (ACC): 7-4 SU & 6-5 ATS
OREGON (Big Ten): 7-4 SU & 4-7 ATS
ILLINOIS (Big Ten): 8-6 SU & 9-5 ATS
TENNESSEE (SEC): 8-6 SU & 4-9 ATS
PURDUE (Big Ten): 5-4 SU & 4-5 ATS

These teams combine for a 56.4% ATS mark. There are some huge names and highly successful programs on this list. That is no coincidence. It will be interesting to see how a down year at Oregon this season has an impact on that program’s status in this exclusive group. 

Worst Road Teams

There have been 12 teams that have won 15% or less of their road games outright in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years. That is an ugly number. The combined ATS record of these teams is arguably worse, 45-96 (31.9%)! There is no reason to discontinue fading these teams on the road in 2026 over the next couple of weeks.

UTAH (Big 12): 0-8 SU & 2-6 ATS
WAKE FOREST (ACC): 0-11 SU & 1-10 ATS
CINCINNATI (Big 12): 0-4 SU & 3-1 ATS
NOTRE DAME (ACC): 1-13 SU & 3-11 ATS
CALIFORNIA (ACC): 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS
PITTSBURGH (ACC): 1-12 SU & 4-8 ATS
STANFORD (ACC): 1-11 SU & 4-8 ATS
MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 2-13 SU & 5-10 ATS
DEPAUL (Big East): 2-12 SU & 6-8 ATS
MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC): 2-12 SU & 3-10 ATS
GEORGETOWN (Big East): 2-11 SU & 5-8 ATS
LOUISVILLE (ACC): 2-11 SU & 5-8 ATS

Only Louisville has any legit deep run tournament hopes of the teams on this list. If you’re looking ahead after seeing Wake Forest’s brutal record here, note that the Demon Deacons will be on the road Tuesday night at BC and 3/3 at Virginia. I’ve shared evidence already of how much home court advantage means in late-season power conference games. It means even more when facing the teams on this fade list.

Best Revenge Teams

An angle that produces some definitive results is that of revenge, or when a team lost the initial game versus a conference opponent earlier in the season, and how they responded. The following is a list of the teams that performed best in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2019 when playing with revenge motivation:

FLORIDA STATE (ACC): 2-0 SU & ATS
VIRGINIA (ACC): 1-0 SU & ATS
BYU (Big 12): 2-0 SU & 1-1 ATS
KENTUCKY (SEC): 4-0 SU & 3-1 ATS
HOUSTON (Big 12): 2-0 SU & ATS
NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten): 7-1 SU & ATS
MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten): 6-1 SU & 5-2 ATS
CONNECTICUT (Big East): 6-1 SU & 5-1 ATS
TENNESSEE (SEC): 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS
OREGON (Big Ten): 8-2 SU & 6-4 ATS
KANSAS (Big 12): 7-2 SU & 7-1 ATS
VILLANOVA (Big East): 6-2 SU & ATS

The most notable thing about this list is that these teams have combined for a scintillating 50-15 ATS (76.9%) record in these games. Also of note here, Northwestern, and its 7-1 SU and ATS mark, has a revenge spot versus Minnesota to close the season, and UConn gets a potential payback matchup from a loss to St John’s on Wednesday.

Worst Revenge Teams

Alternatively, revenge hasn’t proven to be a good motivating factor for these teams:

LOUISVILLE (ACC): 0-9 SU & 3-6 ATS
ARIZONA (Big 12): 0-5 SU & 0-5 ATS
GEORGETOWN (Big East): 2-17 SU & 9-10 ATS
NC STATE (ACC): 1-7 SU & 2-6 ATS
PITTSBURGH (ACC): 1-6 SU & 2-4 ATS
MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 2-11 SU & 5-8 ATS
DEPAUL (Big East): 4-14 SU & 8-10 ATS
MIAMI (FL) (ACC): 2-7 SU & 2-6 ATS
GEORGIA (SEC): 3-9 SU & 6-6 ATS
MARYLAND (Big Ten): 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS
INDIANA (Big Ten): 2-6 SU & 2-6 ATS
ALABAMA (SEC): 1-3 SU & 1-3 ATS
PURDUE (Big Ten): 1-3 SU & 0-4 ATS

There are some wild records on this list, and unfortunately, with conference sizes growing to the point where many teams now face each other only once in the regular season, revenge spots like this are becoming increasingly rare. That said, two of Georgetown’s four remaining tilts are revenge spots from earlier this season, and Arizona’s game at home versus Kansas on Saturday will be a revenge spot for the Wildcats.

On Totals – Over and Under Teams

There have been 12 Power 5 conference teams that have gone Over the total in 65% of their games or more in the final two weeks of the regular season over the last seven years, they are:

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ARKANSAS (SEC): 21-7 Over the total
AUBURN (SEC): 20-8 Over the total
UCLA (Big Ten): 18-8 Over the total
MINNESOTA (Big Ten): 18-8 Over the total
WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12): 19-9 Over the total
WASHINGTON (Big Ten): 17-8 Over the total
OLE MISS (SEC): 19-9 Over the total
MISSOURI (SEC): 18-9 Over the total
SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC): 18-9 Over the total
UTAH (Big 12): 16-8 Over the total
OREGON STATE (West Coast): 14-7 Over the total
NEBRASKA (Big Ten): 19-10 Over the total

I mentioned earlier that Overs on totals have happened in over 53% of the games in the last two weeks of the regular season for the Power 5 leagues. Well, accordingly, going 12 deep again, the percentage for Under on totals is at 57%:

SMU (ACC): 3-1 Under the total
HOUSTON (Big 12): 6-2 Under the total
NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten): 16-10 Under the total
CLEMSON (ACC): 17-11 Under the total
STANFORD (ACC): 14-9 Under the total
VILLANOVA (Big East): 15-10 Under the total
VIRGINIA TECH (ACC): 15-10 Under the total
PENN STATE (Big Ten): 16-11 Under the total
IOWA STATE (Big 12): 17-12 Under the total
RUTGERS (Big Ten): 14-10 Under the total
LOUISVILLE (ACC): 14-10 Under the total
BUTLER (Big East): 13-10 Under the total

Home Court Advantage and Totals Results by Conference

All of the Power 5 conferences show results indicating that home court advantage is quite important in the latter part of the season. In fact, over the last seven years, all but the SEC conference have shown home teams being over .500 ATS, going 50.9% or better ATS, with the SEC checking in a lot less at 48.5%. Since I first wrote this article years ago, I have suggested that, in the absence of any other key information, simply betting on the home teams and the Over in these games would have been a sound strategy. Here are the final two weeks’ home and totals records for each conference in order of ATS success over the last seven seasons:

ACC: 136-68 SU & 119-82 ATS (59.2%), Overs 107-95 (52.9%)
Big 12: 104-59 SU & 81-78 ATS (50.9%), Overs 83-78 (51.6%)
Big East: 83-51 SU & 74-58 ATS (56.1%), Overs 67-65 (50.8%)
Big Ten: 124-74 SU & 102-93 ATS (52.3%), Overs 106-90 (54.1%)
SEC: 119-78 SU & 94-100 ATS (48.5%), Overs 119-77 (60.7%)

There have been some trends that have developed in the various conferences specific to line range. Take a look.

* There has been a definitive line point in ACC home favorite betting, and that has been 10 points. ACC home teams in the -1 to -10 range are on an 82-21 SU and 65-35-3 ATS (65%) run, a sign that home court advantage can be the deciding factor in expectedly tighter games. At the same time, ACC home underdogs of +6 or more are just 10-16 ATS (38.5%) in their last 26 tries. 

* There are some very interesting trends in Big East games with lofty totals of 150 or higher posted since 2018. In these games in the last two weeks of the regular season, hosts are 37-16 SU and 36-17 ATS (67.9%), while totals are 32-21 Over (60.4%).

* Home teams in the -3 to +3 line range have proven far from trustworthy in the Big 12 last two weeks’ games of recent years. In fact, they are just 11-15 SU and 9-16 ATS (36%) in their last 25 tries. The best line range to play Big 12 home favorites has been in the -4.5 to -7.5 range as they are on a 34-10 SU and 24-19 ATS (55.8%).

* Big 12 home underdogs in late-season games have thrived, going 12-21 SU but 22-10-1 ATS (68.8%) in their last 33.

* Contrary to popular belief, laying a lot of points with hosts in the Big Ten has been a rewarding strategy, as those favored by double-digits are on a 31-5 SU and 23-13 ATS (63.9%) run since 2018.

* Big Ten home underdogs of more than 3 points have been very dangerous, going 15-21 SU and 25-11 ATS (69.4%) since 2018.

* SEC home teams have really dragged the numbers down overall for the Power 5 collective in recent years, going just 49-67 ATS (42.2%) over the last four seasons. Of note, Over the total is a spectacular 82-33 (71.3%) in the SEC in that time frame.

* Small SEC home dogs have really struggled in the final two weeks of the regular season, as those at +4.5 points or less are just 10-26 SU and 12-24 ATS (33.3%) since 2018.

* Lofty totaled SEC games in the final two weeks of the regular season since 2018 have been explosive, as games with totals of 150 or higher have gone 46-19 Over (70.8%), producing 164.2 PPG on totals averaging 158.4.

Using this information against the rest of the 2025-26 regular season schedules for all the power conference teams should continue to reap big rewards.

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