If you have been with VSiN for any length of time, you know Steve Makinen is the king of power ratings, ATS trend data and betting systems.
Only in the last few years have we asked Steve to make picks because, well, everyone loves picks. But more important for me was to see him share how he used his own numbers and systems to come up with his Best Bets.
We have two big games in college football at the same time tonight and Steve has positions on both:
USC (+9.5) at Notre Dame (7:30 ET, NBC): In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 205-104 SU and 179-121-9 ATS (59.7%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 118-28 SU and 88-54-4 ATS (62%). Finally, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-25 SU and 53-29-3 ATS (64.6%) since 2017. The line looks like a tough one to take, but I believe oddsmakers are laying the groundwork for who wins this one. Give me Notre Dame -9.5 against rival USC.
Tennessee (+8.5) at Alabama (7:30 ET, ABC): The only thing I’ll say differently about the USC-Notre Dame game compared to Tennessee-Alabama is that I believe these are two different tiered teams. My Effective Strength numbers illustrate that belief. Currently, I show the Vols at 32.3 on that metric, while I have Alabama at 40.5, a full 8.2 points better. Keep in mind, those ratings fully reflect what the teams have done against their schedules. That difference doesn’t even take into account home-field advantage, which, considering that Alabama is on a 28-9 ATS (75.7%) surge at home, should be at least 3.5 points. {Alabama also qualifies for the same above trends as ND.) Let’s lay the 8.5 points with red-hot Alabama in a key SEC game.
Embed from Getty ImagesOther Best Bets columns:
Josh Appelbaum’s CFB Sharp Report will be posted later this morning.
The Week 7 selections for the Circa Friday Football Invitational were announced by Matt last night (7-10 ET), so let’s see what they did with the two featured games:
Alex White: Alabama (-8)
Brett McMurphy: Tennessee-Alabama – OVER (59)
Scott Pritchard: Notre Dame (-9.5)
>>Get all 175 picks from 25 handicappers.
Other CFB resources
>CFB Week 8 Hub with stories and resources.
New resource: Having trouble finding a game on TV? Try the VSiN Game Finder.
MLB Playoffs: Oh, my
The Dodgers advanced to the World Series to defend their title by sweeping the Brewers with a 5-1 victory on Friday night.
In what was one of the best performances in MLB history, Shohei Ohtani struck out 10 in six shutout innings and hit three homers to lead LA.
If you think I am being hyperbolic, here is a stat for you:
>Only 12 hitters had ever hit 3 homers in a postseason game.
>Only 26 pitchers had ever recorded 10+ strikeouts, 2 or less hits and no runs in a postseason start.
In the other game on Friday night, the Mariners defeated the Blue Jays 6-2 to take a 3-2 series lead. Seattle rallied for five innings in the eighth on Cal Raleigh’s leadoff home run and then Eugenio Suárez’s grand slam. Game 6 is Sunday in Toronto.
NFL: QBs in and out
QB news you can use:
Vikings: Carson Wentz will start vs. the Eagles. J.J. McCarthy (ankle) is still out.
49ers: QB Brock Purdy (toe) is out vs. the Falcons. Mac Jones will start.
Cardinals: Kyler Murray (foot) is questionable vs. Packers. Jacoby Brissett would start.
Other injuries of note:
Cowboys: CB Trevon Diggs (concussion) is out vs. Commanders after an accident at his home.
Rams: WR Puka Nacua (ankle) is out vs. Jags in London.
Week 7 weather update: The latest forecast from Kevin Roth is that the worst of the winds will hit before the Dolphins-Browns game.
I checked our Opta AI player prop projections for the biggest differences between the DraftKings line and the AI projection:
Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs: Under 257.5 passing yards at DK (Opta AI at -46.68)
Quinshon Judkins, Browns: Under 94.5 rushing yards (-23.58)
Jalen Nailor, Vikings: Over 16.5 receiving yards (+41.82)
FYI: The projections will adjust up to game time based on injuries and line moves.
Adam Burke offers his favorite props for Week 7, plus Pauly Howard specializes in kicking props.
Everything we post on NFL Week 7 will be here.
Get an alert when Matt Youmans and Wes Reynolds file their NFL Best Bets by signing up for VSiN’s push notifications.)
Quick Hits
College basketball: ESPN’s David Purdum has more details into the ongoing college basketball point-shaving investigation.
NHL: VSiN hockey analyst Jonathan Davis will post his Best Bets around mid-day.
NBA: The VSiN NBA Betting Guide is ready for download.
Horse Racing: VSiN’s “Mr. Ed” Sehon and Mike Somich have picks for today’s menu.
Mike and Aaron Halterman discuss the Breeders’ Cup Classic and have Best Bets for weekend racing at Keeneland on the VSiN At The Track podcast. >Watch. >Listen.
1/ST BET and VSiN have teamed up with an exclusive offer for horse-racing and sports-betting fans. Open and deposit into a new 1/ST BET account and get up to a $250 sign-up bonus with promo code VSIN250. Then, place $100 in wagers within your first 30 days and you’ll unlock a full year of VSiN Pro — a $240 value. Already a VSiN subscriber? We’ll extend your subscription for another year — free. Sign up today.
UFC: Dave Ross and Rob Moreno handicap tonight’s card in Vancouver on the First Strike podcast. >Watch. >Listen. Rob has a few more details in his VSiN.com story. Lou Finocchiaro posted his plays. Britton Hess will add his picks later this morning.
Soccer: VSiN soccer analyst Nigel Seeley has his Best Bets for the EPL menu this weekend.
The post College Football Best Bets: Makinen’s System Picks for Alabama, Notre Dame appeared first on VSiN.
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