The following college football betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the college football games of Week 4. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s college football board.

AJ’s Angles

* ARKANSAS STATE is on a 15-0 SU and ATS run versus Louisiana-Monroe
Trend Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS STATE (+2.5 at ULM)

* In games featuring two AP-ranked teams, when the home team is ranked higher and is a single-digit favorite or underdog, they have gone 60-22 SU and 53-26-3 ATS (67.1%) since 2017.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon), GEORGIA (-3 vs. Alabama)

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 79-111 ATS (41.6%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): HAWAII (+6.5 at Air Force)

* Favorites are on an absurd 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS surge in the Tulane-Tulsa series
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-15.5 at Tulsa)

* LOUISIANA is 14-10 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in revenge mode since 2016
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (-1.5 vs. Marshall)

* Teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 100-70 ATS (58.8%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+4.5 at Kansas)

#1 DIFFERENTIAL in EYPP ratings with ACTUAL point spread: USC -6.5 at Illinois (+32.1 difference, heavily favoring USC)

#1 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG  according to the Makinen Power Ratings: LIBERTY +16.5 at Old Dominion (projections have line at +9.5)

Strategies Using CFB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on VSiN.com, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These systems have updated language and records heading into the 2025 season. Note that these systems only include games matching TWO FBS OPPONENTS against one another.

Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of 3 p.m. ET on Tuesday. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage. There will be an updated betting splits article on Saturday morning. 

CFB DK Betting Splits system #1: Going back to the start of the 2022 season, when more than 75% of the handle was on a particular side of an ATS wager, this majority group has gone just 505-568 ATS (47.1%). This angle has produced consistently over the last few seasons and blindly fading these majority bettors during this span who have given you a small profit in three straight years.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON, KANSAS, NORTH TEXAS, UCF, VANDERBILT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, UCONN, INDIANA, RICE, NEW MEXICO, TULANE, AIR FORCE, TENNESSEE, OLD DOMINION, SOUTHERN MISS, APPALACHIAN STATE, MISSOURI, SOUTH CAROLINA, LOUISIANA TECH, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #2: When 76%+ of the number of bets were on the home side of an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone just 192-220 ATS (46.6%). In 2022, it was 46.5%, in 2023 it was 46.7%, in 2024 it was 46.6%. This is incredible consistency. Again, if you see the big green lights on the VSiN betting splits number of bets page 75% or higher, it is best to fade it.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SYRACUSE, KANSAS, NORTH TEXAS, VANDERBILT, CENTRAL MICHIGAN, TEXAS A&M, AIR FORCE, IOWA STATE, GEORGIA

CFB DK Betting Splits system #3: When the majority of the handle was on road favorites for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group is just 263-297 ATS (47%). Recreational bettors love road favorites because they are most often the better team. The point spread is the great equalizer. Bettors improved slightly on this system in ’24, but there is still plenty of reason to believe in and fade these over-backed road favorites.
System Matches (FADE ALL): FLORIDA STATE, HOUSTON, NOTRE DAME, LOUISVILLE, DUKE, GEORGIA TECH, USC, UTAH, UCONN, INDIANA, BAYLOR, OHIO STATE, TULANE, TENNESSEE, MEMPHIS, LOUISIANA TECH, BYU

CFB DK Betting Splits system #4: When a 58% or greater majority of the handle has been on road underdogs for an ATS wager since the start of the ’22 season, this majority group has gone 132-113 ATS (53.9%). This is less than the usual systems I like to present to readers, but this is a nice advantage against the usual majority win rates, and goes to show that being on the side of majority handle when it goes against the grain can pay off.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): RUTGERS, UCF, RICE, LSU, APPALACHIAN STATE, MARSHALL

CFB DK Betting Splits system #5: When a majority of 55% or more of numbers of bets has backed road underdogs for an ATS wager over the past three seasons, this majority group has gone 129-106 ATS (54.9%). This is even better than the handle numbers in No. 4 actually, and it suggests that following public bettors getting behind road dogs can be an actionable strategy.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TCU, RUTGERS, UCF, GEORGIA SOUTHERN, RICE, LSU, OREGON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #6: When the majority of number of bets has backed a team in an ATS wager in non-Saturday games, their 2022-24 season record was 213-163 (56.6%)! This goes to show that public bettors can be better performers with fewer games to choose from. A lot of times, their mistake proves to be taking too many games on a Saturday.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): EAST CAROLINA, FLORIDA STATE, TCU, HOUSTON

CFB DK Betting Splits system #7: Contrary to popular belief, majority handle bettors have been very good when getting behind huge home favorites, specifically those favored by 27.5 points or more. Typically, I would fear this as a prototypical public bet, but these groups are 60-40 ATS (60%) over the last three seasons.
System Match (PLAY): MISSOURI

CFB DK Betting Splits system #8: The average college football total has steadied at about 53. In games since the start of the ’22 season where the totals reached 59 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, when majority handle bettors favored the Under, they have been relatively sharp, going 61-47 (56.5%). This is pretty rare, as it occurred in only 108 of 2,364 games.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): WESTERN KENTUCKY-MISSOURI STATE

CFB DK Betting Splits system #9: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 49 or lower, 72%+ super majority handle bettors siding with the Under have gone 57-42 (56.7%). Because not many public bettors embrace betting Unders, this doesn’t produce a lot of plays, but the super handle majority has been sharp.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): UTAH-WEST VIRGINIA, SAN DIEGO STATE-N ILLINOIS, UCLA-NORTHWESTERN, KENTUCKY-SOUTH CAROLINA, LOUISIANA TECH-UTEP

CFB DK Betting Splits system #10: Since the start of the ’22 season, on games with totals of 46.5 or lower, 72%+ super majority number of BETS bettors bucking the low total and siding with the OVER have gone 157-127 (55.3%). This system improved its win percentage in ’24 (57.8%). This does not produce a ton of plays here in the grand scheme but the more public option of number of BETS has been pretty good when going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY OVER ALL): SAN DIEGO STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS, RICE-NAVY, MARSHALL-LOUISIANA

College Football Revenge Handicapping

The following are methodologies for handicapping revenge situations in college football, including the best and worst teams in revenge mode, and the best betting systems uncovered. Revenge is defined by having lost a game to a specific opponent in the prior or current season only.

Best and Worst College Football Revenge Teams (since 2016)

Best

* LOUISIANA is 14-10 SU and 17-7 ATS (70.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): LOUISIANA (-1.5 vs. Marshall)

* KENTUCKY is 15-19 SU and 21-13 ATS (61.8%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): KENTUCKY (+6.5 at South Carolina)

* BUFFALO is 16-14 SU and 20-10 ATS (66.7%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+4 vs. UConn)

* NAVY is 16-24 SU and 26-14 ATS (65%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-14.5 vs. Rice)

Worst*

OLE MISS is 14-21 SU and 12-21 ATS (36.4%) in revenge mode since ’16
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-1.5 vs. LSU)

College Football Revenge Systems

Revenge teams that lost as double-digit favorites last time out
Teams looking to avenge outright losses where they were double-digit favorites have struggled, going just 110-123 ATS (47.2%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NAVY (-14.5 vs. Rice), JAMES MADISON (-17.5 vs. Georgia Southern)

Revenge is sweet against porous defensive foes
Teams seeking revenge against a team that is currently allowing 35 PPG or more have been successful, going 223-176 ATS (55.9%) since 2016.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JAMES MADISON (-17.5 vs. Georgia Southern), CENTRAL MICHIGAN (-6 vs. Eastern Michigan)

College Football Systems Based On AP Poll Rankings

The following college football betting systems take into account whether or not teams in a non-neutral field game are ranked in the AP poll. 

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CFB AP Poll Rankings System #1 – Games featuring two ranked teams
In games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are 202-98 SU and 176-116-8 ATS (60.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ILLINOIS (+6.5 vs. USC), OLE MISS (-1.5 vs. LSU), PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon), GEORGIA (-3 vs. Alabama)

Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 117-25 SU and 87-51-4 ATS (63%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon), GEORGIA (-3 vs. Alabama)

Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 60-22 SU and 53-26-3 ATS (67.1%) since ’17.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon), GEORGIA (-3 vs. Alabama)

These were from an article posted in September 2024 detailing top trends and systems for college football conference play.

* Road teams in conference games coming off very close losses of less than three points have struggled lately, 79-111 ATS (41.6%) since 2011.
System Match (FADE): HAWAII (+6.5 at Air Force)

* Teams playing as conference road dogs of more than seven points after not having played since 14 days ago are on a 141-108 ATS (56.6%) surge since 2010.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): *WATCH FOR UCLA (+6.5) at Northwestern and KENTUCKY (+7) at South Carolina*

* Teams playing at home in conference games as dogs of more than three points when coming off a huge upset win as a double-digit road underdog have been a play against team, 28-47 ATS (37.3%) since 2010.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SYRACUSE (+5.5 vs. Duke), TULSA (+15.5 vs. Tulane)

* Teams playing at home in conference games and coming off a blowout loss by more than 45 points are just 46-74 ATS (38.3%) since 2010.
System Match (FADE): ILLINOIS (+6.5 vs. USC)

* In SEC conference play, Over the total is 18-5 (78.3%) in non-neutral expected-tight matchups (within a field goal -3 to +3) with totals <= 51.5 since 2021
System Match (PLAY OVER): ALABAMA-GEORGIA (*if spread falls into this line range and total drops below <= 51.5, -3 spread and 52.5 total currently*)

Negative FADE trends:

• LOUISIANA-MONROE is on a 2-15 ATS skid as a home favorite in Sun Belt play
Trend Match (FADE): LOUISIANA-MONROE (-2.5 vs. Arkansas State)

• USC has lost 12 of its last 16 games ATS as a favorite in conference play
Trend Match (FADE): USC (-6.5 at Illinois)

• MEMPHIS is on a 6-19 ATS skid in conference games when coming off an outright win
Trend Match (FADE): MEMPHIS (-13.5 at FAU)

Positive FOLLOW trends:

• WESTERN KENTUCKY is on a 13-3 ATS surge in conference play when coming off a win at home
Trend Match (PLAY): WESTERN KENTUCKY (-4.5 at Missouri State)

• PENN STATE has become a reliable Big Ten favorite, 21-8 ATS in its last 29
Trend Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon)

• EASTERN MICHIGAN is an impressive MAC road underdog, 18-6 ATS in the last 24
Trend Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6 at Central Michigan)

Extreme Stat Next-Game CFB Betting Systems

Huge week-to-week point spread movement
Teams that see their point spread in one game being at least 52 points worse than the prior game have performed very well in that follow-up game since 2012, going 100-70 ATS (58.8%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+4.5 at Kansas)

Unexpected blowout games are bad future indicators for both teams
Both college football teams coming off a game which was decided by a margin of 38 points or more different from the final point spread, either win or lose, have struggled in the next game, going just 142-186-1 ATS (43.3%) over the last decade-plus.
System Matches (FADE ALL): UCLA (+6.5 at Northwestern), NEW MEXICO (-13.5 vs. New Mexico State), INDIANA (-7.5 at Iowa), ILLINOIS (+6.5 vs. USC), SAN DIEGO STATE (-2.5 at Northern Illinois), CALIFORNIA (+6.5 at Boston College)

Prolific offensive performances don’t last
FBS teams that gain 735 or more yards offensively in their prior game have gone just 31-45 ATS (40.8%) in the follow-up game since 2012.
System Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (-7 at Virginia)

Ride teams off of uber-dominant performances
In the last 12 years, CFB teams that scored 58 or more points in a game while allowing fewer than 10 have carried on the momentum well in the next outing, going 150-112 ATS (57.3%).
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+4.5 at Kansas)

This Week’s College Football Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LIBERTY +16.5 (+7.0)
2. VIRGINIA +7 (+4.0)
3. OREGON STATE +13.5 (+3.4)
4. RUTGERS +4.5 (+3.2)
5. OKLAHOMA STATE +21 (+3.1)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. BOISE STATE -16.5 (+2.8)
2(tie). COLORADO STATE -4.5 (+2.7)
MEMPHIS -13.5 (+2.7)
4(tie). KANSAS -4.5 (+2.6)
WESTERN KENTUCKY -4.5 (+2.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA ATLANTIC +13.5 (+7.7)
2. ARIZONA +6.5 (+6.8)
3. AKRON +21 (+6.7)
4 (tie). OREGON STATE +13.5 (+5.9)
WASHINGTON +8.5 (+5.9)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. MISSOURI -44.5 (+14.5)
2 (tie). OLE MISS -1.5 (+4.9)
GEORGIA TECH -14 (+4.9)
4. OLD DOMINION -16.5 (+4.6)
5. UTAH -12.5 (+4.0)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UCONN-BUFFALO OVER 49.5 (+7.5)
2. LOUISVILLE-PITT OVER 57.5 (+3.6)
3. MARSHALL-LOUISIANA OVER 46.5 (+3.4)
4. BYU-COLORADO OVER 47.5 (+2.7)
5. HAWAII-AIR FORCE OVER 52.5 (+2.5)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. GEORGIA TECH-WAKE FOREST UNDER 52.5 (-5.1)
2. APPALACHIAN STATE-BOISE STATE UNDER 60.5 (-4.6)
3. NEW MEXICO STATE-NEW MEXICO UNDER 54.5 (-4.5)
4. LSU-OLE MISS UNDER 54.5 (-3.4)
5. TCU-ARIZONA STATE UNDER 55.5 (-3.2)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. LIBERTY +16.5 (+13.7)
2. UCLA +6.5 (+12.1)
3. NEW MEXICO STATE +13.5 (+9.7)
4. UMASS +44.5 (+8.5)
5. OREGON STATE +13.5 (+7.7)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. KANSAS STATE -6 (+10.3)
2. NOTRE DAME -4 (+7.8)
3. TULANE -15.5 (+6.2)
4. OHIO -10 (+5.6)
5. WESTERN KENTUCKY -4.5 (+5.4)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. FLORIDA STATE-VIRGINIA OVER 59.5 (+9.6)
2. OREGON-PENN STATE OVER 52.5 (+5.9)
3. UTAH-WEST VIRGINIA OVER 46.5 (+4.4)
4. LSU-OLE MISS OVER 54.5 (+4.2)
5. MARSHALL-LOUISIANA OVER 46.5 (+3.8)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches:
1. UMASS-MISSOURI UNDER 56.5 (-5.6)
2. DUKE-SYRACUSE UNDER 60.5 (-5.1)
3. HAWAII-AIR FORCE UNDER 52.5 (-4.9)
4. NOTRE DAME-ARKANSAS UNDER 64.5 (-4.5)
5. TULANE-TULSA UNDER 53.5 (-3.7)

Comparing Effective Play-by-Play ratings to this week’s matchups

The following are taken from an article posted on Tuesday, September 16, 2025, looking at how Steve Makinen comes up with his ratings and any edges in games each weekend. As far as actionable items, here are the top 15 games for this weekend, showing the differential of Effective Play-by-Play ratings versus actual point spreads, with home-field advantage built into the differences. Track these games to see how they fare, or back them already if you agree with the logic. Starting from Week 4 of 2025, these plays are 9-6 ATS (60%).

1. (181) USC at (182) ILLINOIS
Actual Line: ILLINOIS +6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: ILLINOIS +39.1
Difference: 32.6, Favors — USC

2. (119) LIBERTY at (120) OLD DOMINION
Actual Line: OLD DOMINION -16.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLD DOMINION -45.1
Difference: 28.6, Favors — OLD DOMINION

3. (197) ALABAMA at (198) GEORGIA
Actual Line: GEORGIA -3
Effective Play-by-Play Line: GEORGIA +21.3
Difference: 24.3, Favors — ALABAMA

4. (195) OREGON at (196) PENN STATE
Actual Line: PENN STATE -3.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: PENN STATE +20.2
Difference: 23.7, Favors — OREGON

5. (159) CINCINNATI at (160) KANSAS
Actual Line: KANSAS -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: KANSAS +14.6
Difference: 19.1, Favors — CINCINNATI

6. (145) RUTGERS at (146) MINNESOTA
Actual Line: MINNESOTA -4.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: MINNESOTA -20.6
Difference: 16.1, Favors — MINNESOTA

7. (149) HAWAII at (150) AIR FORCE
Actual Line: AIR FORCE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: AIR FORCE +8.7
Difference: 15.2, Favors — HAWAII

8. (113) GA SOUTHERN at (114) JAMES MADISON
Actual Line: JAMES MADISON -17.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: JAMES MADISON -32.4
Difference: 14.9, Favors — JAMES MADISON

9. (117) UTAH at (118) WEST VIRGINIA
Actual Line: WEST VIRGINIA +12.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: WEST VIRGINIA -1.5
Difference: 14, Favors — UTAH

10. (133) INDIANA at (134) IOWA
Actual Line: IOWA +7.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA +21.4
Difference: 13.9, Favors — INDIANA

11. (161) ARIZONA at (162) IOWA STATE
Actual Line: IOWA STATE -6.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: IOWA STATE +7.3
Difference: 13.8, Favors — ARIZONA

12. (175) LSU at (176) OLE MISS
Actual Line: OLE MISS -1.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: OLE MISS -15.1
Difference: 13.6, Favors — OLE MISS

13. (131) VIRGINIA TECH at (132) NC STATE
Actual Line: NC STATE -10.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: NC STATE -23.9
Difference: 13.4, Favors — NC STATE

14. (105) FLORIDA STATE at (106) VIRGINIA
Actual Line: VIRGINIA +7
Effective Play-by-Play Line: VIRGINIA +19.4
Difference: 12.4, Favors — FLORIDA STATE

15. (183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) LOUISIANA-MONROE
Actual Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -2.5
Effective Play-by-Play Line: LOUISIANA-MONROE -14.9
Difference: 12.4, Favors — LOUISIANA-MONROE

These are some of the top situational college football betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action: 

* ARIZONA is 17-30 (36.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+6.5 at Iowa State)

* BOSTON COLLEGE is 26-14 (65%) ATS in conference games since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON COLLEGE (-6.5 vs. Cal)

* BOWLING GREEN is 19-30 (38.8%) ATS as an underdog since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): BOWLING GREEN (+10 at Ohio)

* BUFFALO is 23-12 (65.7%) ATS at home since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (+4 vs. UConn)

* CALIFORNIA is 28-15 (65.1%) ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): CALIFORNIA (+6.5 at Boston College)

* EASTERN MICHIGAN is 40-19 (67.8%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2016
* CENTRAL MICHIGAN is 4-13 ATS (23.5%) as a favorite in the last three seasons
Trends Match (PLAY): EASTERN MICHIGAN (+6 at Central Michigan)

* CINCINNATI is 5-14 ATS (26.3%) as an underdog in the last four seasons
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (+4.5 at Kansas)

* COLORADO STATE is 15-5-1 to the Under in home games since 2022
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WASHINGTON STATE-COLORADO STATE (o/u at 50.5)

* FLORIDA STATE is 11-21 (34.4%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
* FLORIDA STATE is 11-21 (34.4%) ATS in conference games since 2021
Trends Match (FADE): FLORIDA STATE (-7 at Virginia)

* GEORGIA TECH is 10-22-1 ATS (31.3%) as a favorite since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): GEORGIA TECH (-14 at Wake Forest)

* JAMES MADISON is 26-13 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY): JAMES MADISON (-17.5 vs. Georgia Southern)

* KANSAS is 6-17 (26.1%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
* KANSAS is 38-24-1 (61.3%) Over the total since 2019
Trends Match: FADE KANSAS (-4.5 vs. Cincinnati), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 55.5)

* LIBERTY is 25-10 (71.4%) ATS as an underdog since 2014
* OLD DOMINION is 10-21 (32.3%) ATS at home since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): LIBERTY (+16.5 at Old Dominion)

* LOUISIANA TECH is 37-26-1 (58.7%) OVER the total since 2019
* LOUISIANA TECH is 0-8 SU and ATS in the last eight as a road favorite
Trends Match: FADE LOUISIANA TECH (-4 at UTEP), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 48.5)

* LSU is 24-14 (63.2%) ATS in road/neutral games since 2019
* LSU is 26-18 (59.1%) Over the total since 2022
Trends Match: PLAY LSU (+1.5 at Ole Miss), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 54.5)

* MIAMI OHIO is on a 36-23-1 (61%) Under the total run over the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LINDENWOOD-MIAMI OH

* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 31-22 (58.5%) Under the total since 2021
* MISSISSIPPI STATE is 19-12 (61.3%) ATS at home since 2021
Trends Match: PLAY MISSISSIPPI STATE (+7.5 vs. Tennessee), also PLAY UNDER the total (o/u at 62.5)

* NAVY is 16-6 ATS (72.7%) following a SU win in the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NAVY (-14.5 vs. Rice)

* NEW MEXICO is 6-19 (24%) ATS as a favorite since 2018
* NEW MEXICO is 19-8 (70.4%) OVER the total in last two seasons
* NEW MEXICO STATE is 32-23 (58.2%) ATS in the last four seasons
Trends Match: PLAY NEW MEXICO STATE (+13.5 at UNM), also PLAY OVER the total (o/u at 54.5)

* NORTHERN ILLINOIS is 5-21-2 (19.2%) ATS in its last 28 home games
Trend Match (FADE): NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+2.5 vs. San Diego State)

* NORTHWESTERN is 31-11 to the Under as a home favorite since 2013
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): UCLA-NORTHWESTERN (o/u at 44.5)

* NOTRE DAME is 30-10 ATS (75%) in road/neutral games in the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): NOTRE DAME (-4 at Arkansas)

* OHIO U is 23-10 ATS (69.7%) in conference games over the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-10 vs. Bowling Green)

* OLE MISS is 10-21-2 (32.3%) ATS in Conference games since 2021
Trend Match (FADE): OLE MISS (-1.5 vs. LSU)

* OREGON STATE is 27-12 (69.2%) ATS in home games over the last six seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): OREGON STATE (+13.5 vs. Houston)

* PENN STATE is 30-16 ATS (65.2%) as a favorite over the last four seasons
* PENN STATE is 35-21 (62.5%) ATS coming off SU win since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): PENN STATE (-3.5 vs. Oregon)

* PITTSBURGH is 41-24 (63.1%) Over the total since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LOUISVILLE-PITTSBURGH (o/u at 57.5)

* SAN DIEGO STATE is 46-27 (63%) Under the total since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SAN DIEGO STATE-NORTHERN ILLINOIS (o/u at 42.5)

* SOUTH CAROLINA is 15-9 (62.5%) ATS as a favorite in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SOUTH CAROLINA (-6.5 vs. Kentucky)

* STANFORD is 7-18-1 (28%) ATS in its last 26 home games
* STANFORD is 11-29 ATS (27.5%) following an outright loss since 2019
Trends Match (FADE): STANFORD (-2.5 vs. San Jose State)

* TULANE is 50-25 (66.7%) ATS as a favorite since 2014
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-15.5 at Tulsa)

* USC is 31-13 ATS (70.5%) Over the total in the last three seasons
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): USC-ILLINOIS (o/u at 59.5)

* UTAH STATE is 4-15 ATS (21.1%) in road/neutral games over the last three seasons
Trend Match (FADE): UTAH STATE (+22.5 at Vanderbilt)

* UTEP is 9-21 (30%) ATS at home since 2020
Trend Match (FADE): UTEP (+4 vs. Louisiana Tech)

* VANDERBILT is on an 8-13 (38.1%) ATS skid after a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VANDERBILT (-22.5 vs. Utah State)

* VIRGINIA TECH is 7-22 (24.1%) ATS in the last 29 games following a SU win
Trend Match (FADE): VIRGINIA TECH (+10.5 at NC State)

* WASHINGTON is 2-6 (25%) ATS following outright wins since 2024
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+8.5 vs. Ohio State)

* WESTERN KENTUCKY is 16-24 (40%) ATS as a favorite since 2019
Trend Match (FADE): WESTERN KENTUCKY (-4.5 at Missouri State)

* WEST VIRGINIA has gone 20-11 ATS (64.5%) at home in the last five seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): WEST VIRGINIA (+12.5 vs. Utah)

These are the top head-to-head series college football betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

Week 5

(111) BOWLING GREEN at (112) OHIO
* Favorites are 10-1 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 11 of the series
Trend Match (PLAY): OHIO (-10 vs. Bowling Green)

(119) LIBERTY at (120) OLD DOMINION
* LIBERTY is 4-0 SU and ATS in series with ODU since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): LIBERTY (+16.5 at Old Dominion)

(129) CONNECTICUT at (130) BUFFALO
* CONNECTICUT is 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in its last 10 meetings with Buffalo
Trend Match (PLAY): UCONN (-4 at Buffalo)

(153) NEW MEXICO STATE at (154) NEW MEXICO
* NEW MEXICO STATE is on an 8-2 ATS run versus New Mexico, including 7-1 ATS in its last visits to Albuquerque
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW MEXICO STATE (+13.5 at UNM)

(167) BAYLOR at (168) OKLAHOMA STATE
* OKLAHOMA STATE is 10-2 SU and ATS in the last 12 games hosting Baylor
Trend Match (PLAY): OKLAHOMA STATE (+20.5 vs. Baylor)

(169) KENTUCKY at (170) SOUTH CAROLINA
* Under the total is 9-1 in the last 10 of this rivalry
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KENTUCKY-SOUTH CAROLINA (o/u at 45.5)

(175) LSU at (176) MISSISSIPPI
* Home teams are on an 11-1 ATS surge in Ole Miss-LSU series
Trend Match (PLAY): OLE MISS (-1.5 vs. LSU)

(177) TULANE at (178) TULSA
* Favorites are on an absurd 18-1 SU and 17-2 ATS surge in Tulane-Tulsa series
Trend Match (PLAY): TULANE (-15.5 at Tulsa)

(183) ARKANSAS STATE at (184) LOUISIANA-MONROE
* ARKANSAS STATE is on 15-0 SU and ATS run versus Louisiana-Monroe
Trend Match (PLAY): ARKANSAS STATE (+2.5 at ULM)

(197) ALABAMA at (198) GEORGIA
* Underdogs are 6-5 SU and 9-2 ATS in the last 13 of the Bama-UGA series
Trend Match (PLAY): ALABAMA (+3 at Georgia)

* Over the total is 10-3 in the Bama-UGA series since 2002
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ALABAMA-GEORGIA (o/u at 52.5)

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