College Football Week 1 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:

Last year was an up-and-down season for me in college football. I had a solid run early, and eventually fell to under-.500 late regular season, but picked it back up again for the bowl games. In the end, my season record was 153-139-6 ATS, good for 52.4% and essentially +0.1 unit of profit when considering an average 10% vig. Obviously, that isn’t spectacular, but anyone following me for the season at least didn’t lose and had the entertainment of getting behind almost 300 bets! 

With that in mind, as we head into the full Week 1 slate of college football for 2025, I recall a couple of promises I made to myself last year. One, making sure I take all of the Week 0-3 Stability System plays in my Bets Bets. These were 23-14 ATS last season, and picking some/not picking others cost me. When you have a methodology that produces profits in 13 straight years, you’d be a fool for not getting behind it 100%, right? These are already 1-0 for 2025, as hopefully you saw my write-up on Kansas last week. And two, try limiting my number of plays a little more. There were times I offered over 20 opinions in a week last season, and rarely did I come out ahead on those. Oh, and by the way, I consider myself “old school”, in that I typically stick to point spreads and totals. The juice from sports books is usually more straightforward, and most of my trend/system research focuses on those areas. All that considered, here are my Week 1 CFB Best Bets, including all 11 Stability System games.

Thursday, August 28, 2025

Boise State at South Florida (+5.5)

Curiously, the line in the Boise State-South Florida season opener for both teams in Orlando has dumped dramatically since opening. Based primarily upon the perception of each of the programs, the Broncos opened as 10-point road favorites but have since been bet down to -5.5. Is there some real cause for concern for the Mountain West favorites in this one? You’re darn right there is. This is somewhat of a transitional season for them, and this game in particular, since when we last left them, the team was heavily reliant on RB Ashton Jeanty, who went on to be a top 5 pick in the NFL draft. This year’s offense figures to lean more on QB Maddux Madsen, who had a lot less pressure on him a year ago due to Jeanty’s presence. 

On the other sideline, USF has played in back-to-back bowl games under third-year head coach Alex Golesh, and there is seemingly a solid foundation in place once again for the program. The Bulls return 16 starters from their 7-6 team of a year ago, including talented QB Byrum Brown. They should be able to score consistently in this game. If you read my article on Week 1 Betting Concepts, you would have also seen that favorites have been far more reliable at home/neutral games in the opening week(s) of college football since 2013 (197-172 ATS, 53.4%), than on the road (45-66-1 ATS, 40.5%).
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take USF +5.5 in a tough opening spot for Boise

Wyoming at Akron (+5.5)

Another line that has dumped seriously since opening in the summer is the one in the Wyoming-Akron matchup. This game feels like it has trap written all over it. What has Wyoming done since last year to suggest that they are ready to be respected road favorites in Week 1? The Cowboys stunk last year, going 3-9 while scoring just 19.3 PPG. While they do have nine starters back on offense, I question whether that’s a good thing for a program that scored so poorly. That remains to be seen, but in my opinion, they are as ugly a road favorite as it gets. 

Yes, I can see the arguments already. “But what about Akron?” Don’t confuse the Zips with Kent State. Akron actually has some reasons for optimism in year four of head coach Joe Moorhead’s era. They were 4-8 last year after going 7-47 the prior five seasons. They also won their final two games and put up 26 PPG in a 3-2 finish to 2024. Plus, it seems Moorhead finally has a QB he can build around, with Ben Finley back for his senior year after a solid campaign a year ago. We also have the same road favorite fade system in play that was there for Boise-USF.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s back Akron (+5.5) as a potential sleeper home dog on Thursday

Friday, August 29, 2025

Central Michigan at San Jose State (-11.5)

Head Coach Ken Niumatalolo’s first season was moderately successful in 2024, as he guided San Jose State to its third straight 7-6 season. It’s somewhat commendable when a program can undergo a major transition in coaches and systems and not drop off. Year two for the once-longtime coach of the Naval Academy looks to be one in which the Spartans take a step forward, as most experts have them behind only Boise State in the Mountain West Conference. The first test along the way comes against a Central Michigan squad that struggled to a 4-8 finish a year ago and has turned to new head coach Matt Drinkall, who last coached Army’s o-line, to get it turned around. This is a difficult travel spot for the Chippewas against a much more stable team.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll lay the 11.5 points with SJSU

Auburn at Baylor (+2.5)

There is considerable hype surrounding the Auburn football program this season, particularly with what head coach Hugh Freeze has been able to add through the transfer portal, highlighted by QB Jackson Arnold from Oklahoma. However, none of that has proven to work well on the field together as of yet. 

At the same time, head coach Dave Aranda has a lot back from what was already proven to be a strong 8-5 team out of the Big 12 last season. This includes virtually all of the key playmakers from an offense that put up 34.4 PPG, which leads me to wonder whether or not the right team is favored in this intriguing SEC-Big 12 Friday night clash. Is this simply a situation of SEC bias? 

Home-field advantage means a lot in early-season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 28-16 SU and 25-15-4 ATS (62.5%) over the last decade-plus. On the list of top line spots to cover in Week 1 would have to include a Friday night road chalk situation versus a team expected to contend for its conference title in front of what will be a charged home crowd.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go +2.5 with Baylor

Georgia Tech at Colorado (+4)

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I am a bettor who tries to see through what are overexaggerated assumptions. The assumption for this game is that Colorado is going to be massively down for 2025. However, if you go back to my recruiting ranking article from back in June, you would see that I wrote this about the Buffaloes: “The impact of hiring head coach Deion Sanders has been huge on the recruiting trail as he has continued to build this program with three straight top 25-ranked classes. With his son QB Shadeur off to the NFL, Sanders has brought in highly-rated freshman Juju Lewis to be the quarterback of the future in Boulder. This is clearly a new and improved era of Buffaloes’ football.” Lewis won’t be getting the starting nod; the job instead falls to veteran Kaidon Salter, who starred at Liberty. Let’s not forget, this team went 9-4 last season, including 5-1 at home. And while they lose Sanders and Heisman winner Travis Hunter, there is now a solid foundation of strong recruiting to lean on. The other potential wrongful assumption here is that Georgia Tech is automatically trending upward after back-to-back 7-6 seasons. Maybe that is where they belong, and that would make laying 4 points in Boulder very dangerous.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll take Colorado +4 on Friday night with a shot at an upset

Western Michigan at Michigan State (-20.5)

Michigan State enters 2025 on a three-year bowl game drought, having compiled a 14-22 record during that span. Last year was a rebuilding season under then new head coach Jonathan Smith. His second team at MSU should be much more competitive, with 15 starters back, including QB Aidan Chiles. Smith will be looking for some more explosive offense in 2025, as his team scored just 19.8 PPG last season. Points shouldn’t be that hard to come by this week as the Spartans host an in-state foe in Western Michigan. The Broncos allowed 31.3 PPG last year and return just three starters on that side of the ball. Expect Smith’s second season in East Lansing to begin with a bang.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 20.5 points with Michigan State

Saturday, August 30, 2025

New Mexico at (178) Michigan (-36.5)

Last year at this time, Michigan was the defending national champion, yet perhaps the most unstable program in the entire country, as head coach Sherrone Moore was left to pick up the pieces from the fallout of Jim Harbaugh’s departure for the NFL. The program was a winner, but mired in controversy and scandal. Culminating a rocky 8-5 season with wins over Ohio State and Alabama was certainly a welcome way to go out. Now, it seems, the Wolverines have a ton going for them in 2025: 14 starters back, and most of their coaching staff back in place. The same cannot be said for New Mexico, who was left in shock by head coach Bronco Mendenhall’s unexpected departure to conference rival Utah State. The program falls to Jason Eck, former head coach at Idaho, and he has just seven starters back from last year’s 5-win team. This line is big for a reason. When the Lobos fail to score 10 points, it should be an easy win for the Wolverines.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Michigan despite the huge -36.5 number

Florida Atlantic at Maryland (-14.5)

The Stability Score mismatches for Week 1 have a Big Ten flair to them so far, and Maryland becomes the third qualifier in four games. The Terps weren’t stable nor good in 2025 as they won just four games and missed out on a bowl game for the first time since 2020. The program stayed the course, however, and retained head coach Mike Locksley, who will have 10 starters back for 2025. The first test comes against a transitioning Florida Atlantic team that turns to head coach Zach Kittley. The former OC at Texas Tech gets his first chance at a FBS head job this season. He has just six starters back, but brings in QB Caden Veltkamp from Western Kentucky. This situation looks very unstable now, but Veltkamp gives reason for legitimate optimism down the road. I’m not a huge fan of laying the hook on the 14 points, but it almost feels as if odds makers are baiting bettors into taking FAU.
College Football Best Bet: Terps roll, covering the -14.5

Coastal Carolina at Virginia (-12.5)

Virginia needed just one upset win in its final three games this past November to end a three-year bowl game drought, but instead, the Cavaliers were beaten by at least 20 all three times. Head coach Tony Elliott’s team looks to take that elusive step forward in 2025, with 14 starters back and a new QB in Chandler Morris, a former TCU and North Texas star. The early part of the season schedule looks favorable for UVA to gain some momentum, starting with this game versus Coastal Carolina. Third-year head coach Tim Beck brings on new coordinators on both sides of the ball, as well as a new quarterback, expected to be Maryland transfer MJ Morris. The program took a big step back last year, though, and I don’t see an immediate recovery starting this week.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s go Virginia -12.5

Marshall at Georgia (-39.5)

I have written on several occasions this offseason regarding the plight of the Marshall program since their Sun Belt title game win this past December. The program couldn’t come to terms with former head coach Charles Huff, and the program essentially unraveled when he made the choice to move on. He took most of his key players with him. Tony Gibson, former DC at NC State, is left to pick up the pieces. The Herd were 10-3 last season, but with just four starters back from that team, the current team is a shell of its 2024 self. The opening game couldn’t get much tougher either, as a trip between the hedges awaits. Georgia is among, if not the favorite, in the SEC for 2025. The Bulldogs are also a rightful massive favorite for this particular game. Think about it…when’s the last time you saw a 10-win team from the prior season open with a +39.5 line? The answer is never. The reasons are valid.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the 39.5 points with Georgia

Toledo at Kentucky (-7.5)

There is a common argument that arises every bowl season, debating the merits of motivation in bowl games between Group of 5 and Power 4 foes. On the side of the G5 teams is the chance to prove themselves against the big boys, who may not be thrilled with the matchup. Then, of course, there is the argument of sheer talent. Bowl season can wreak havoc on the debate when you consider opt-outs, the portal, etc. But what about a regular-season matchup such as this one? Pitting the MAC’s Toledo versus the SEC’s Kentucky in the heart of SEC country. Both teams are expected to be at full strength, so you’d have to assume the Wildcats are the better team. And motivation? There shouldn’t be a shortage on either side.

In fact, if you’re head coach Mark Stoops and UK, you’d have to think that this game is all the more important with the way the treacherous schedule lays out the rest of the way. As a program, they typically take non-SEC action seriously: Kentucky is 20-6 (76.9) ATS in non-conference games since 2018. The dumping of this line seems like a gift to me. My power ratings say UK should cover this one.
College Football Best Bets: Lay the 9.5 points with Kentucky

UTEP (+6) at Utah State

UTEP was just 3-9 last season in head coach Scotty Walden’s first year atop the program, but there is some reason for optimism this fall, as Walden was able to land former five-star QB Malachi Nelson, who began his career at USC. He also has returning starter Skyler Locklear back at the position, so it can safely be assumed that the Miners will be better at the most key of spots. UTEP also won two of its final three games last season, so they have some momentum on its side. 

Meanwhile, Utah State starts anew under head coach Bronco Mendenhall, who led a mini revival at New Mexico this past season. The Aggies have just two offensive starters back from their 4-8 team of 2024, which scored 31.9 PPG. Defense is their issue, though; they yielded 37.8 PPG in 2024. This looks like a nice underdog spot where a potentially much-improved UTEP team can thrive. Don’t disregard the money line either.
College Football Best Bet: Take the +6 points with UTEP

Georgia Southern (-2.5) at Fresno State

For a second straight week, we have the opportunity to fade rebuilding Fresno State, who is transitioning in the first season under head coach Matt Entz. In the offseason, I questioned the team’s adding of QB EJ Werner, who had only moderate success at Temple, a team that has been far below FSU’s level in recent years. In fact, this program was used to having prolific passers under Jeff Tedford. There wasn’t much prolific about the 7-point, 216-yard effort at Kansas last week. Georgia Southern, on the other hand, has been an offensive juggernaut under head coach Clay Helton, and he has 13 starters back from his 8-5 team from last season. Expect the rebuilding pains to continue with the Bulldogs this week.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll go with Georgia Southern to win and cover this one

Mississippi State (-11.5) at Southern Miss

In my opinion, this is an important season for Mississippi State football and second-year head coach Jeff Lebby. This program hit rock bottom last year in SEC terms, failing to even win a single game in conference while finishing 2-10. Lebby has 16 starters back for 2025, though, including veteran QB Blake Shapen, who helped the Bulldogs to 25.8 PPG last year, an improvement of 4.0 PPG. With an extremely rigorous SEC slate starting on 9/27, it is essential that this program get off to a good start, and who better to kick it off against than an in-state foe that is in what looks to be a total rebuilding year. The Golden Eagles have some reason for optimism with head coach Charles Huff, along with several of his key players from 2024 Marshall coming in, but USM is about as unstable a situation early as it gets. MSU needs this one much more and will play like it.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll back Mississippi State (-11.5) as the road chalk here

Rice at Louisiana Lafayette (-13.5)

Rice has gone the way of the triple option in 2025, turning to head coach Scott Abell, who gets his first FBS chance after guiding Davidson for the last seven years. In a time when even longtime option teams like Navy are leaving the system, Rice has turned back the clock. Besides having new and unrecognizable systems in place on both sides of the ball, the Owls bring back only seven starters from last year’s 4-8 team. Louisiana, meanwhile, has the exact same number of starters back, but is coming off a 10-4 season and is expected to retool, not rebuild. The new QB is expected to be Walker Howard, a former highly rated Ole Miss transfer. This has the feel of one of those games I call “hidden blowouts”.
College Football Best Bet: Lay the -13.5 with the Ragin’ Cajuns

LSU at Clemson (-4)

I’ve mentioned a few times already about difficult spots in which to play a season-opening game. To me, LSU has the most difficult task of all, having to travel to Clemson to take on a Tigers’ team that has the look and hunger of one set to retake its place among the elite programs in the country this year. It has been a bit of a drop off over the last handful of years for head coach Dabo Swinney and the Tigers, but this past offseason, he got out of his comfort zone somewhat and tapped into the transfer portal to shore up some weak spots in the roster. As such, he has what appears to be as complete and veteran of a lineup on both sides of the ball as anyone. The leader, of course, is QB Cade Klubnik, a Heisman favorite who threw for 3600+ yards and 36 TDs as a junior last year. 

LSU also looks pretty strong, and I don’t have many knocks on what head coach Brian Kelly brings to the table. I do, however, have some key home stats regarding early-season games and AP top 25 matchups: First, home-field advantage means a lot in early-season games between unfamiliar Power 4 non-conference foes. The hosts in these matchups have gone 28-16 SU and 25-15-4 ATS (62.5%) over the last decade-plus. Second, in games featuring two ranked teams since 2017, home teams are now 196-94 SU and 169-113-8 ATS (59.9%). Digging deeper into that data, you will find that when the home team has been ranked better, those teams have gone 115-22 SU and 85-48-4 ATS (63.9%). Adding another point spread wrinkle to the last angle, when better-ranked home teams have been single-digit favorites or underdogs, they have gone 59-19 SU and 52-23-3 ATS (69.3%) since 2017.
College Football Best Bet: I’ll trust Clemson -4 here

Monday, September 1, 2025

TCU (-3.5) at North Carolina

There is not a single program across the country that will have more eyes on it this season than North Carolina, as football fans everywhere are curious as to what will transpire under former legendary NFL coach Bill Belichick in Chapel Hill. They’ll get a first look at the Tar Heels in an intriguing opening week, Labor Day night national TV game versus TCU. UNC is expected to be new almost everywhere, new at about half of the starting positions, new schemes, new coaches, and even a new playing surface on their field, as Belichick opted to return to a grass surface to aid what figures to be a power rushing attack. The Horned Frogs come back loaded with 13 starters returning from their 9-4 team of a season ago, including 3900+ yard passer Josh Hoover. I’m afraid it could be a rude welcome back to Belichick in this one.
College Football Best Bet: Let’s back TCU -3.5 on Labor Day

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