FIU vs. Western Kentucky

When you have a run with 49 straight days of football, somebody has to draw the short straw and play on Tuesday. Right now, it is Conference USA, though these weeknight affairs do give the conference the opportunity to pick up a little bit of visibility and TV money by getting on the ESPN family of networks and also CBS Sports Network. For the Week 8 Tuesday night games, FIU vs. Western Kentucky is the one I have the strongest takes on.

New Mexico State vs. Liberty and Arkansas State vs. South Alabama are the other two, with the first one on CBSSN and the second one on ESPN2. ESPNU will have the spotlight game that I’ll be writing about in deeper detail, but I’ll have some brief thoughts on the others below.

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FIU vs. Western Kentucky (-10, 56)

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Tuesday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPNU)

The late game of the three is in Bowling Green, Kentucky, where the Hilltoppers will look to keep their unblemished Conference USA record intact against visiting FIU. The Panthers became bigger underdogs on Monday afternoon, as bets hit the board on the Hilltoppers. The line jumped from the -8 range to -9.5 or -10.

It makes sense on the surface, as the Hilltoppers have a win over a common opponent in Delaware that beat FIU by 22. Also, WKU has the best statistical profile in the conference. But, I see a team that racks up yards through the air and has some promising numbers, but also has problems winning by margin.

The Hilltoppers were actually outgained by nearly 100 yards in that Delaware game. They had 476 yards worth of offense against Missouri State and still mustered just 27 points in a five-point win.

FIU head coach Willie Simmons said that there is no QB controversy and that Keyone Jenkins will get the start. Backup Joe Pesansky came in after Jenkins tweaked his ankle in the blowout loss and was 7-of-12 for 100 yards with two interceptions. Maybe the line move has something to do with Jenkins’ status, but I think it’s just looking at WKU’s statistical profile and situational success. They’ve been good in the red zone and on third down, certainly better than FIU.

But, the Panthers were still only a little over a touchdown underdog, despite losing 51-10 to UConn last week and 38-16 to Delaware, so the power ratings point towards FIU being able to keep this one respectable. WKU has gotten a 68% completion rate and a 12/2 TD/INT ratio from Maverick McIvor this season and they are still barely getting by in some games. Even the 31-16 win over Nevada required the Hilltoppers to score 21 points in the fourth quarter to win a game that they trailed going into the final frame.

My Week 8 college football power ratings have this game Western Kentucky -7, so +10 looks attractive enough to jump in.

Pick: FIU +10

Other Tuesday Games

New Mexico State at Liberty (-10, 46.5): The 7 p.m. CBSSN game is this one, as New Mexico State takes the long trek from Las Cruces to Lynchburg, VA. To this point, Liberty has really been unimpressive, though they did show up defensively last week in beating UTEP. They also only scored 19 points, as Ethan Vasko has not been running Jamey Chadwell’s offense efficiently, even though it was Chadwell who recruited him to Coastal Carolina.

The Aggies bounced back nicely on a short week to crush Sam Houston in their last game, but the Bearkats are the lowest-rated team in C-USA by most metrics. Still, it would be the Aggies plus the points or nothing for me, as Liberty only has one win over a FBS foe and it was that last game against UTEP. I may have to take this if it goes to 10.5 or 11.

Arkansas State at South Alabama (-7.5, 58.5): ESPN2 carries this 7:30 p.m. ET kickoff in Mobile. I was a year ahead of schedule when it came to fading South Alabama, who was pillaged by the portal and lost head coach Kane Wommack and DC Corey Batoon to SEC jobs prior to the 2024 season. This year, they lost southpaw gunslinger Gio Lopez to UNC before the season. Major Applewhite’s club only has one win in six games and it was against FCS Morgan State.

Yet here they are laying a touchdown over an Arkansas State team that still has Jaylen Raynor. Raynor has accounted for 12 of the team’s touchdowns, with eight through the air and four on the ground to this point. The Red Wolves and Jaguars have both played pretty tough schedules to this point. The difference between these two teams is the defense, where Arkansas State is 135th out of 136 teams in yards per play allowed. South Alabama is 90th. Still, it would be a dog or pass situation for me.

Check out picks from VSiN hosts and guests on this game and all of the Week 8 games on our Pro Picks Page.

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