Every Saturday afternoon during the NASCAR season, Steve Makinen uploads his final race simulation and sends me an email with his interpretation of the data.
So here is what he had to say about today’s season-opening Daytona 500:
After all of the events of the last few days to set the lineup for the Daytona 500, Joey Logano has maintained the top spot on the final simulation.
I am not surprised as he has been very good this week and won the first duel race on Thursday night. His Penske team has also been outstanding at drafting superspeedways over the last couple of seasons. He and teammates Ryan Blaney and Austin Cindric make up three of the top four for laps led at Daytona and Talladega in that span. Assuming they can stay out of trouble, all three will be contenders.
The other teams to watch figure to be the RFK Racing Ford team, led by Chris Buescher, and the Hendrick Motorsports team, paced by Chase Elliott. Those drivers make for four of my predicted top 5. The other driver I have in there is Chase Briscoe, who led a lot of laps in duel 2 the other night, but will need help from other Toyota’s to be in contention for a win at the end.
Here are Steve’s predictions for the race, which will start an hour earlier (1:30 p.m. ET, Fox) to avoid inclement weather later in the day:
Top 5: Joey Logano (+1000), Ryan Blaney (+1000), Chase Briscoe (+2200), Chris Buescher (+2800), Austin Cindric (+1800)
Top longshots (+2000 or higher): Briscoe (+2200), Tyler Reddick (+4000), Preece (+2500), Buescher (+2800), Josh Berry (+5000)
Favorites to struggle: Kyle Larson, Christopher Bell, William Byron, Bubba Wallace
Embed from Getty ImagesOne important reminder: Daytona is the only track Makinen grades an “F” for handicap-ability. Superspeedway chaos can erase even the strongest car in seconds. The upside? Longshots aren’t just fun — they’re viable.
Quick Hits
Olympic Hockey: Jonathan Davis has picks for today’s games,including U.S.-Germany.
College Basketball: Greg “Hoops” Peterson has Best Bets for today. On our college basketball page, you’ll also find Josh Appelbaum‘s betting splits analysis later this morning.
Get real-time steam alerts from the DonBest Screen. Sign up now for a 7-day free trial at go.donbest.com. Use the promo code VSIN10 for 10% off your initial subscription.
NBA: Zach Cohen‘s All-Star game preview with Best Bets.
Horse Racing: We have picks for today’s races from the Daily Racing Form on our horse racing page.
ICYMI: With a late surge, Paladin won the Risen Star at the Fair Grounds, good for 50 points in the Kentucky Derby qualifying. 
Watch the race.
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