Eagles vs. Giants: Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen

Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props. 

Jaxson Dart Over 0.5 INTs (-144, DraftKings)

I rarely take the easy way out with a layup play with poor odds, but if I see a damn near lock, I have to go with it. Philly’s run defense was pretty darn strong last week, and Dart’s being asked to do a lot (too much, in fact). I watched the Week 5 Eagles and Giants games closely, and I’m convinced Dart’s throwing at least one pick while playing from behind (7.5-point home dogs). He’s a gunslinger, but he’s a little reckless with the ball, and his receiving corps was terrible last week, with Darius Slayton (out this week) dropping balls and Wan’Dale Robinson disappearing. It’s not a good sign that their leading receivers last week were Daniel Bellinger, Cam Skattebo, and Theo Johnson, so I think Dart will be overmatched in this short week Thursday Night Football matchup. 

Saquon Barkley Over 85.5 rushing yards (-118, BETMGM)

Barkley has obviously been struggling, but this looks like a good week for him to pop off a long run, as he did in his lone matchup against his old team last year (55 yards). I’m assuming the Eagles coaches realize that their running game is struggling on man/gap concept runs this year because they’re the same types of runs Barkley crushed the Giants (and everyone else) on last year, as he put up 17/176/1 rushing in that single matchup last season. In 2024, 44% of Barkley’s runs were on man/gap concept runs, and he averaged 6.35 YPC on those runs with a 54% success rate. This season, only 25% of Barkley’s runs have been on man/gap concept runs, and he’s averaging only 2.33 YPC with a 28.6% success rate. The Giants currently give up a 60% success rate on those runs, tops in the league, and good for 6.42 YPC, and Barkley is averaging 19+ carries per game in wins this year vs. six in their loss last week. It is a short week, but that might be why they used him less in the running game this past Sunday. I’m expecting his best rushing day of the season, and with him taken off the injury report, the word is Philly is set to lean on Barkley in the running game in this one.

A.J. Brown Over 64.5 receiving yards (-110, DraftKings)

The Giants play the second-most Cover 1 in the NFL this season at 45.9%, and Brown is averaging a solid .64 FP/RR against Cover 1, which is 24th out of 125 eligible WRs, and he averages a strong 2.40 YPRR and .40 TPRR on 40 routes against the shell. The Giants also give up the 10th-most receiving YPG (118.6) to outside receivers, and Quentin Johnston (8/98/1 receiving) and George Pickens (5/68/1) have eaten in this matchup the last month. I do expect Philly to feed Saquon Barkley in the running game, but I also think that will help Brown make a downfield play or two, since they’ll need defenders in the box to stop Barkley. DeVonta Smith has also been good against man this year, but he was not last year, when Brown dominated man coverage. It’s also a bad schematic matchup for Dallas Goedert against Big Blue, who give up the seventh-fewest receiving YPG (37.2) and just 7.4 YPR to TEs and Goedert averages a terrible .77 YPRR on 26 routes against man this year. I see Brown doing something similar to his lone game against the Giants last year, when he posted 5/89/1 receiving. 

Cam Skattebo Over 12.5 receiving yards (-115, BETMGM)

This is a very low line, so I have to play it. The low total probably has something to do with Tyrone Tracy returning, and Tracy in Weeks 1-3 had 11 targets and 8/54 receiving. However, Skattebo in this span had 13 targets and 10/87, so the rookie outproduced Tracy in his first three games. They do have Devin Singletary lingering, but the Giants are 7.5-point home dogs, and Philly also gives up the eighth-most receiving YPG (41.0) to RBs, so Skattebo, Tracy, and Singletary may all hit this number, since they are very thin at receiver with no Darius Slayon, and since they should be throwing most of the night while trailing. I honestly thought this prop would come out in the upper-teens after Cam racked up seven targets and 6/45 receiving last week, so I’ll gladly take it.

Theo Johnson Over 3.5 receptions (-102, DraftKings)

It should get ugly with the Giants playing from behind most of the way, but Philly may at least allow some garbage time production, so I’m also okay with Johnson’s over 28.5 receiving yards prop. The Eagles give up the third-fewest receiving YPG (28.2) and the sixth-fewest receptions per game (3.8) to TEs, so I’m not expecting anything special. But Johnson is leading the Giants in first-read share (26.2%) the last two weeks without Malik Nabers, and a previously-deceased Evan Engram just got 4/33/1 receiving in this matchup last week in a game Denver won. While playing from behind, 6-7 targets should be coming Johnson’s way.

John Hansen is the creator of Fantasy Points. Built for bettors. Trusted by winners. Fantasy Points Data subscribers win more because they have access to the best information. Stop guessing. Start betting with confidence. Get started today with promo code VSIN2025.

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