Introduction

Over the last decade, the Big Ten has seen a variety of champions. With the additions of Oregon, UCLA, USC, and Washington from the Pac-12, that trend of unpredictability should continue for years to come. Now one of the deepest conferences in college football, the Big Ten no longer has a clear-cut favorite, which should generate plenty of excitement this upcoming season. Let’s take a look at each Big Ten team’s odds to win the conference, translated into implied probabilities.

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Big 10 Champion Odds/Implied probability

SchoolOddsImplied probability
Ohio State+19533.90%
Penn State+25028.57%
Oregon+30025%
Michigan+85010.53%
USC+25003.85%
Illinois+30003.23%
Indiana+35002.78%
Nebraska+40002.44%
Iowa+40002.44%
Washington+60001.64%
Minnesota+100000.99%
Michigan State+150000.66%
Wisconsin+200000.50%
UCLA+200000.50%
Rutgers+250000.40%
Northwestern+300000.33%
Maryland+500000.20%
Purdue+500000.20%

Conclusion

With so much unpredictability heading into this Big Ten football season, it’s clear that oddsmakers are high on Ohio State, Penn State, and Oregon early on—with a bit of love for Michigan as well. One early storyline to watch: Michigan, Ohio State, and Oregon will all be starting new quarterbacks, while Penn State returns veteran signal-caller Drew Allar. This feels like a make-or-break year for James Franklin and the Nittany Lions, and they certainly have the roster to make noise in the Big Ten—and on the national stage. We’ll also see how Ohio State follows up their first national title under Ryan Day.