Introduction
College football is right around the corner, and it’s time to start looking at some conference contenders. The SEC appears to be as wide open as it has been in years, though oddsmakers believe only a select few teams are truly capable of winning the coveted SEC title. As it stands now, the top four contenders are Texas (+260 per DraftKings), Georgia (+340), Alabama (+390), and LSU (+800). Three of these four teams will be rolling out a new starting quarterback this season, with LSU being the only one returning last year’s starter.
Embed from Getty ImagesLet’s take a closer look at the SEC as a whole and break down the title odds, along with their implied probabilities.
SEC Champion Odds/Implied probability
| School | Odds for the SEC Title | Implied probability |
| Texas | +260 | 27.78% |
| Georgia | +340 | 22.73% |
| Alabama | +390 | 20.41% |
| LSU | +800 | 11.11% |
| Texas A&M | +1500 | 6.25% |
| Ole Miss | +1500 | 6.25% |
| Tennessee | +2200 | 4.35% |
| Florida | +2200 | 4.35% |
| South Carolina | +2500 | 3.85% |
| Auburn | +2800 | 3.45% |
| Oklahoma | +3000 | 3.23% |
| Missouri | +5000 | 1.96% |
| Arkansas | +15000 | 0.66% |
| Vanderbilt | +20000 | 0.50% |
| Kentucky | +25000 | 0.40% |
| Mississippi State | +50000 | 0.20% |
Takeaways
As you can see, there are three strong frontrunners in Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. There’s a slight drop-off to LSU, followed by another drop to teams like Texas A&M, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Florida, and South Carolina. Given how wide open the SEC appears to be this season, there’s certainly potential value in that third tier of teams below LSU. However, even in the NIL era, it remains difficult to compete with the consistent recruiting power of Texas, Georgia, and Alabama. According to ESPN’s FPI, all three of those programs have a top 10 strength of schedule, so no team holds a major advantage in that department.
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