Week 5 of the NFL regular season is in the books and now bettors turn their attention to Week 6. Let’s examine where early smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

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Dallas Cowboys (-3, 49.5) at Carolina Panthers

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The Cowboys (2-2-1) just took down the Jets 37-22, easily winning outright as 1.5-point road dogs. Similarly, the Panthers (2-3) just held off the Dolphins 27-24, winning outright as 1.5-point home dogs.

This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3.5-point road favorite.

The public thinks this line is way too short and 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Cowboys.

However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen Dallas fall from -3.5 to -3. This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of Carolina, as the line has moved in their direction despite being the unpopular play.

At DraftKings, Carolina is receiving 23% of spread bets but 62% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.

Conference home dogs getting 5-points or less are 177-151 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2018.

Bryce Young is 9-5 ATS (64%) with a 23% ROI as a home dog in his career.

The Panthers are 2-0 at home this season compared to 0-3 on the road.

Those looking to follow the sharp move and back Carolina would be wise to shop around and/or wait for a hook to reappear between now and Sunday.

While much of the market sits at Panthers +3, ESPNBET is currently offering Panthers +3.5 (-125).

Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5, 43.5) at Miami Dolphins

The Chargers (3-2) just fell to the Commanders 27-10, losing outright as 3-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Dolphins (1-4) just came up short against the Panthers 27-24, losing outright as 1.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 5.5-point road favorite.

The public expects the Chargers (who have lost two straight) to get back on track and 71% of spread bets are laying the points with Los Angeles.

However, despite this heavy public support we’ve seen the Chargers fall from -5.5 to -4.5, with some shops even inching down to -4.

Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to make it easier for the public to cover when they’re already hammering Los Angeles to begin with? Because respected smart money has sided with Miami plus the points, triggering sharp reverse line movement in favor of the home dog.

At DraftKings, the Dolphins are receiving 31% of spread bets but 57% of spread dollars. At Circa, Miami is taking in 31% of spread bets but a massive 96% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the Dolphins, especially out in Vegas.

Tua Tagovailoa is 7-3 ATS (70%) as a home dog in his career. He is also 7-1 ATS (88%) as a dog when getting 4.5-points or more. Overall, he is 26-9 straight up (74%) at home, including 6-4 (60%) straight up as a home dog.

Those looking to go contrarian and follow the sharp Dolphins move but also gain some added cushion could look to target Miami in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Dolphins up from +4.5 to +10.5, savvy pros can pass through the the key numbers of 7 and 10.

Detroit Lions at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 52.5)

The Lions (4-1) just dismissed the Bengals 37-24, covering as 10-point road favorites. On the other hand, the Chiefs (2-3) just fell to the Jaguars 31-28, losing outright as 3.5-point road favorites.

This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 1-point home favorite.

The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 79% of spread bets are rushing to the window to back Detroit, who has a better record and has won four straight.

However, despite this massive public support in favor of Detroit we’ve seen the line move further toward Kansas City -1 to -2.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Chiefs, as the line has moved in their direction despite the public hammering the Lions.

The Chiefs are one of the top “bet against the public” plays of Week 6 as they are only receiving 21% of spread bets in an extremely heavily bet Sunday Night Football showdown.

Those looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game could elect to play Kansas City on the moneyline at -135.

Non-conference favorites are 280-128 (69%) straight up since 2020, with the lack of familiarity typically benefiting the team who is expected to win. Patrick Mahomes is 43-10 (81%) straight up as a home favorite in his regular season career.

Kansas City is in a buy-low situational spot as an unpopular favorite coming off a loss against a sell-high trendy dog coming on a win streak.

The Chiefs also have correlative betting value as a short favorite in a high total game (52.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.

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