Game: UConn Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 29th at 5:05 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

With how stacked this East Region was at the beginning of the tournament, it only makes sense that we get treated to a blue blood matchup between UConn Huskies men’s basketball and Duke Blue Devils men’s basketball. The last time these teams met in the NCAA Tournament was in the 2004 Final Four, where UConn narrowly edged out Duke. This will be the first iteration of this matchup featuring head coaches Dan Hurley and Jon Scheyer, both of whom are known for their preparation, and I expect the same to be true today.

UConn had their first true test of the tournament on Friday night against Michigan State, where they managed to hold it down in the final seconds. The Huskies are now 32-5 on the season, and had a 7-3 record against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and Big East Tournament. They are averaging 77.2 points per game (111th in Division I), while allowing 65.0 points per game (7th in Division I).

Duke also had a tightly contested matchup against St. John’s in the Sweet 16 but were effective enough in the second half to close out the Red Storm. The Blue Devils are now 35-2, with a 17-2 record against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and ACC Tournament. Duke is averaging 81.9 points per game (33rd in Division I), while allowing 63.4 points per game (3rd in Division I).

We should be in for quite the Elite 8 matchup, and this will be a great way to close out this year’s Elite 8 before gearing up for the Final Four next week.

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Betting Overview

There’s some discrepancy in the spread for this game, as it opened at -5.5 in favor of Duke and has stayed at that number at some sportsbooks, while others have moved to -5 or even -4.5. The moneyline has actually shifted further in favor of Duke, as UConn opened at +170 and can now be found at +185, while Duke opened at -205 and now sits around -218.

The total opened at 134.5 and has moved slightly to 134 or even 133.5 depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

Duke currently sits in the 3rd spot on KenPom with a net rating of +34.33, while UConn is 10th with a net rating of +28.69.

The Blue Devils have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.9 (5th nationally), along with an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 90.2 (3rd nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 65.4 (286th nationally). The Huskies, on the other hand, have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.3 (30th nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 93.6 (9th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 64.7 (320th nationally).

Betting Trends

The Huskies are now 15-22 ATS, with a 6-2 record on a neutral court, and will be playing their first game as an underdog, while holding a 6-8 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have slightly favored the under, hitting in 19 of 37 games. In games on a neutral court, we’ve seen totals split 4 games apiece, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 9 of 14.

Duke is now 20-17 ATS, with a 5-6 record on a neutral court, an 18-17 record as a favorite, and a 9-7 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have heavily favored the under, hitting in 24 of 37 games. In games on a neutral court, the under has hit in 7 of 11. In games as a favorite, the under has hit in 22 of 35, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 12 of 16.

Final Thoughts

Anytime blue bloods are on the court, you’re in for a heavyweight battle. Even though Dan Hurley and the Huskies may be slightly outmatched on the floor here, he will keep UConn in this matchup for as long as possible.

That said, I think with Caleb Foster now having a game under his belt coming off injury, he will be dangerous and could be the difference in this one. I think Duke will manage to cover, and with how slow these teams tend to play, I have to favor the under.