Game: Michigan State Spartans vs. UConn Huskies

Date: March 27th at 9:45 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

Following the St. John’s vs. Duke game is a heavyweight matchup between two teams with legendary head coaches, as Tom Izzo and Michigan State go up against Dan Hurley and UConn. This will be Tom Izzo’s 17th Sweet 16 appearance, and you know very well he isn’t looking to stop here.

Michigan State has been in control through both of their first 2 games of the tournament but will face their first true test this evening. The Spartans have put together a solid season, as they are now 27-7, with a 10-6 record against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and Big Ten Tournament. Through these 34 games, Michigan State has averaged 79.3 points per game (79th in Division I), while allowing 68.4 points per game (37th in Division I).

Even on the 2 seed line, this hasn’t been one of Dan Hurley’s best UConn teams, but they are still sticking around and are not a team to mess around with. They didn’t have their best effort in their first round matchup against Furman but put the pedal to the metal against UCLA in the Round of 32. The Huskies have a 31-5 overall record, along with a 7-3 record against quad 1 opponents through the regular season and Big East Tournament.

They’re also averaging 77.5 points per game (106th in Division I), while allowing 65.1 points per game (7th in Division I). This Friday slate of Sweet 16 games is going to be a lot of fun, and this is certainly one you will want to tune in for.

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Betting Overview

The line in this game opened with Michigan State as a 1.5 point favorite, but we now see UConn favored by that same 1.5-point number. Michigan State has shifted on the moneyline from -120 to +110, while UConn moved from even odds to -125.

We saw the total open at 138.5, and it has since shifted to between 134.5 and 135.5 depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

In KenPom, these teams are right next to each other, with Michigan State at 9th with a net rating of +29.00, and UConn at 10th with a net rating of +28.38.

The Spartans have an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 123.4 (23rd nationally), while having an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 94.4 (13th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 66.3 (242nd nationally). The Huskies come in with an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 122.4 (30th nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 94.0 (11th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 64.7 (322nd nationally).

Betting Trends

Michigan State has an ATS record of 17-15-2, with a 5-2 record on a neutral court, a 3-2-1 record as an underdog, and a 6-6-1 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have slightly favored the under, hitting in 18 of 34 games. For games on a neutral court, the under has hit in 4 of 7. In games as the underdog, totals have split 3 games apiece, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 8 of 13.

UConn enters with a 14-22 ATS record, along with a 5-2 record on a neutral court, a 14-22 record as a favorite, and a 5-8 record against non-conference opponents. Totals have been tough to predict, splitting an even 18 games apiece. In games on a neutral court, the over has hit in 4 of 7. They’ve been favorites in every game, so totals have split 18 games apiece in that role, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 8 of 13.

Final Thoughts

Man, this is going to be a tough one to judge in terms of picking sides. I would slightly lean towards Tom Izzo getting it done with his experience, but Dan Hurley is very dangerous in March.

This feels like a game that will come down to execution late, and whichever team is able to control tempo and limit mistakes should have the edge. As for the total, I’d slightly favor the under here.