Game: St. John’s Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devils

Date: March 27th at 7:15 PM ET

Where to Watch: CBS

Oh boy, do we have some exciting games coming up in the East Region for the Sweet 16. The first of which is the St. John’s vs. Duke game, which features one of the legends of the game in Rick Pitino going up against Jon Scheyer, who isn’t necessarily “up and coming,” but is still relatively new to the game. St. John’s came into this tournament feeling disrespected on the 5 seed line after just winning the Big East Tournament, especially considering the team they beat ended up on the 2 seed line. The Red Storm took care of business in their first-round game against Northern Iowa, then had a thriller against Kansas, winning in the final seconds. Those two tournament wins pushed St. John’s over the 30-win mark, as they now sit at 30-6, with a 5-5 record against quad 1 opponents in the regular season and Big East Tournament. St. John’s is now averaging 81.1 points per game (46th in Division I), while allowing 69.4 points per game (53rd in Division I).

Duke’s first game of the tournament was a little shaky, but they bounced back and took care of business, pulling away from TCU in the second half of that second-round matchup. The Blue Devils are now 34-2 on the season and had a 17-2 record against quad 1 opponents over the regular season and ACC Tournament. We’ve seen Duke average 81.9 points per game (34th in Division I), while allowing just 63.1 points per game (3rd in Division I). This game will be an absolute treat to get the Friday slate of Sweet 16 games going.

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Betting Overview

There really hasn’t been much line movement in this one, as Duke has remained a 6.5-point favorite pretty much across the board. The moneyline has shifted slightly towards Duke, as St. John’s moved from +210 to +230, while Duke went from -258 to -275. The total here has remained steady at 141 to 141.5 depending on the sportsbook.

KenPom Ratings

KenPom currently has Duke in the 3rd position with a net rating of +37.80, while St. John’s sits at 16th with a net rating of +26.78. Duke now has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 127.3 (7th nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 89.5 (1st nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 65.6 (281st nationally). St. John’s, on the other hand, has an adjusted offensive efficiency rating of 120.3 (41st nationally), an adjusted defensive efficiency rating of 93.5 (8th nationally), and an adjusted tempo of 69.6 (69th nationally).

Betting Trends

St. John’s comes in 21-13-1 ATS, with a 5-3 record on a neutral court, a 3-1 record as an underdog, and a 6-5-1 record in games vs. non-conference opponents. Totals this season have favored the under, hitting in 23 of 35 games. In games on a neutral court, we’ve seen the under hit in 5 of 8. For games as an underdog, totals have split 2 games apiece, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 9 of 12 games.

Duke is currently 20-16 ATS, with a 5-5 record on a neutral court, an 18-16 record as a favorite, and a 9-6 record against non-conference opponents. Unders have been very favorable in Duke games as well, hitting in 24 of 36 contests. As for games on a neutral court, the under has hit in 7 of 10. In games as the favorite, the under has hit in 22 of 34, and in games against non-conference opponents, the under has hit in 12 of 15.

Final Thoughts

These Sweet 16 games can’t get here soon enough, and this one is certainly up there in terms of the most anticipated matchups. The combination of Rick Pitino and St. John’s going up against the tradition of the Duke Blue Devils creates what could be a classic Sweet 16 showdown. Frankly, I think the combination of Pitino’s experience and St. John’s physicality down low will allow them to manage a cover in this contest. As for the total, I’d be pretty confident in selecting the under here.