Here are this week’s EPL best bets:

Liverpool vs. Manchester City

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Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET

It looks like a difficult card in the Premier League this weekend. With another full round of fixtures the following midweek, it may make sense to keep your wagers a little smaller. There is one game that stands out both in stature but also as a betting heat as second-placed Manchester City visit the champions Liverpool.

I expect Pep Guardiola’s men to go for it here. They have got to win it if they still hold any hope of reclaiming the title. League leaders Arsenal could be as many as nine points clear by the time this game kicks off and a defeat for City here would see them out of the race. 

Liverpool have also got to go for it as they have slipped to sixth in the table. They need a win to keep in the hunt for an all-important finishing position to qualify for next season’s Champions League.

Over the last few seasons, these two clubs have been regarded as favorites for the title, which has led to most of their clashes being tight and cagey. That meant there was a fear factor about losing, and the tie was a decent result, especially for whoever was the road team. 

This has led to recent meetings between the two being relatively tight. There were only two goals scored across the four games in the last two seasons, with three in the reverse fixture in November. 

But I think this one will go the other way, given it is the last chance saloon for both sides. That opinion was strengthened after watching Manchester City beat Newcastle 3-1 in the League Cup on Wednesday, a game in which they should have scored more but gave up so many good chances to their weakened opponents.

The high defensive line City uses could play into Liverpool’s hands, with Mo Salah back involved and the excellent Hugo Ekitike looking razor-sharp. The Reds have scored 20 times in their last six fixtures across all competitions, with those games averaging 4.33 goals. 

Both sides’ strength is in attack, with their defenses going through transition and being vulnerable to making mistakes. Over 2.5 goals is -175 with odds of -210 for both teams to score, so for me, I have to go over 3.0 at -106. 

Exactly three goals gets us a refund, with four or more seeing us cash this ticket in full at a nice price. 

EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Manchester City – Over 3.0 Asian Total at -106. 

Leeds United vs. Nottingham Forest

Friday, 3:00p.m. ET

Sixteenth plays seventeenth here, with both teams six points clear of 18th-placed West Ham in the last of the three relegation spots. So, there is a chance both managers would be happy for a tie, but I’m not expecting either to play for one.

The market is very strong on Leeds, who have gained a reputation as being a force to reckon with when they have home-field advantage. However, we can’t overlook they have still only won five of their 12 league games this season at Elland Road and were very poor last weekend when thumped there 4-0 by Arsenal. 

Nottingham Forest may be struggling at the wrong end of the table, but on the road, they have won as many games as sixth-placed Liverpool and Manchester United, who are fourth. That makes Sean Dyche’s men a little bit of value at +245. Although I wouldn’t put anyone off that aggressive play, my preference is for tie-no-bet at +130. 

Looking at the market, I foresee Forest being bet and that price will contract come kickoff on Friday afternoon. In recent weeks, their form has picked up with only one regular-time defeat in their last six fixtures, and the 1-1 tie with Crystal Palace last weekend after having a player sent off ended a run of two straight wins. 

Leeds have also hit a bit of a slump, recording just one win in their last seven league games and only three in the last 15. That run includes a 3-1 defeat in the reverse fixture in November.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin has now scored only once in his last six games, and Leeds heavily rely on him for goals. Morgan Gibbs-White looks back in form for a Forest side who have recruited shrewdly in the January window and certainly offers value here. 

EPL Best Bet: Leeds United vs Nottingham Forest – Nottingham Forest tie-no-bet at +130.

Wolves vs. Chelsea 

Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET

I’m a little concerned Liam Rosenior is trying to be clever for the sake of being clever. That certainly seemed to be the case in midweek when he took his Chelsea side to London rivals Arsenal 1-0 down in a semi-final, played five at the back and failed to give it a go.

Ultimately, the Blues lost both legs to the Gunners, but in between those fixtures, they have won all five games across all competitions. I was impressed with Rosenior in that sequence, and I think he will learn from Tuesday night’s experience, and that will start by getting back to winning ways here. 

Although Wolves have improved under Rob Edwards, they are still the worst side in the Premier League according to the table, with only one win to their name and having lost 18 of their 24 games so far. A mini four-game resurgence saw three ties and a win, which did lead me to side with them a couple of times, but the tepid 2-0 defeat to Bournemouth last weekend has ended my interest in that strategy.

Chelsea has the quality and the strength in depth to take care of business here, but I cannot be betting them at -159. However, taking them to also keep a clean sheet and win-to-nil boosts that price to a much more appealing +180.

Wolves have struggled for goals with just 15 in those 24 fixtures and have drawn a blank in their last three Premier League outings. The reverse fixture saw this bet cash after a 3-0 win for Chelsea, and a similar result here at Molineux would not surprise me.

EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Chelsea – Chelsea to win to nil at +180.

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