Here are my EPL best bets for this week’s action as teams return from their Champions League matchups.
Liverpool vs. Everton
Embed from Getty ImagesSaturday, 7:30 a.m. ET
We come out of the first round of Champions League fixtures and straight into a tough-looking Premier League slate. At time of writing, there are only two sides that are minus money to win. With Arsenal priced at -117 against Manchester City, there is a chance that, come kickoff, there will only be one.
However, one current trend I am delighted to see back is the amount of low-scoring games, even a couple of 0-0’s—an Under bettors dream! With that in mind, my best bet this week is looking for a continuation of that theme and to show just how much I cannot wait, it comes in the first game on Saturday morning.
In the first Merseyside derby of the season, Liverpool enters off the back of yet another incredibly emotional rollercoaster of a Champions League night after beating Atletico Madrid 3-2, having thrown a 2-0 lead away. It needed another goal in added on time, incredibly their fourth in five competitive matches this season, and the third time it was the winning goal.
The worst match they then want to have is Everton, even more so in the early kickoff on Saturday. David Moyes has his side playing really well. Jack Grealish has been inspirational, so much so he even picked up his first-ever Premier League player of the month award.
This is a fixture that is historically low scoring, with Liverpool winning 1-0 the last time the sides met back in April. In fact, there have been more than two goals once in the last seven meetings across all venues, while at Anfield, Under 2.5 goals has cashed in each of the last six clashes, including the cup tie back in 2020.
The Reds tend to win these games but not by a wide margin. Although their defense has been shaky at the start of the new campaign, the Blues don’t really have the firepower to take advantage. I expect this to follow the pattern of years gone by and be tight with David Moyes setting up the visitors to be hard to break down and frustrate the home side.
Last week, we saw newly promoted Burnley come within seconds of holding the champions to a 0-0 tie, but for giving a penalty away at the death. Everton can do a similar job in a similar style, but they could land it given the higher-quality players in their squad.
The Toffees drew 0-0 themselves last weekend at home to Aston Villa, ending a run of three straight wins in all competitions after an opening day 1-0 defeat at Leeds via a hotly disputed penalty kick. Since then, they have kept three clean sheets from the four fixtures played.
The great news is the line here is set at 3.0 – meaning we would need four goals to lose our stake, exactly three would see a refund, while we cash with two or fewer. The last 10 meetings here in all competitions would have seen the bet win on eight occasions (including each of the last six), push once, and lose once, which was way back in 2019.
EPL Best Bet: Liverpool vs Everton – Under 3.0 Asian Total at -113.
Wolves vs. Leeds
Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET
Both sides are in a real bad spot and will be desperate to pick up anything they can. Wolves will be encouraged by a good record against newly promoted sides, winning eight of their last 10 such fixtures, losing just once. Without a point on the board from their opening four games, the pressure is on.
Leeds visit having yet to score from open play this season. Failing to hit the back of the net in any of their last three league games and picking up just one point since their opening weekend 1-0 win over Everton, courtesy of a fortunate penalty.
What is certain is that this will be an edgy match. If Wolves lose this, then relegation becomes a huge possibility, maybe even probability. If Leeds lose, then they will only be one point ahead of their opponents here and will likely be in the relegation zone with them.
Some games are billed as “must-win,” but for me, this looks much more like a must-not-lose. A draw gets a first point for Wolves and a first point on the road for Daniel Farke’s men.
Their chances of winning have been hampered by the fact both first choice strikers are out injured. Without Jorgen Strand Larsen and Joel Piroe, neither side really looks like scoring, and the fact they have failed to do so in a combined six of their eight league games so far speaks volumes.
The traders do not expect to see goals with Under 2.5 goals priced at -159, the lowest odds for that market across all 10 fixtures this weekend by some distance. But in a season where backing both teams to score “no” has been extremely profitable, this looks the perfect fixture to jump on that train.
EPL Best Bet: Wolves vs Leeds – Both teams to score “No” at -121.
Brighton vs. Tottenham
Saturday, 10:00a.m. ET
Brighton are the favorites here. Not only that, they are the shortest price they have ever been to beat Tottenham. There is nothing I have seen to justify that level of confidence in them against the best version of Spurs we have seen in some time, being led by a very decent manager.
After leaving Brentford in the summer, Thomas Frank has his new side well-organized and playing some very nice stuff. Nothing like the chaos we saw over the last couple of seasons under Ange Postecoglou.
Since 2023, when these two sides meet, which they have done five times in that period, we have been guaranteed goals galore. There have been 22, to be precise, at an average of 4.4 per game with both teams scoring on each occasion.
Last season, it was 3-2 to Brighton here, and they won 4-1 in the reverse fixture in May. There will be no repeat of that this time round, with Frank so different in his approach. We can take advantage of the goal line being set as if the big Aussie is still in charge.
For the first time in ages, Spurs look like a proper team and will cause problems for a Brighton side that has made a disappointing start to the campaign. Their owner, Tony Bloom, has talked about kicking on and having a real shot at making the Champions League. Going into this game in 13th is not what he had in mind.
Tottenham have played five competitive games so far this season and kept a clean sheet in four of them. That includes a visit to Manchester City. In midweek, they ground out a tough 1-0 win in the Champions League against Spanish side Villarreal. That is the new Tottenham.
The fact we can play the Asian Line at 3.0 makes this bet a no-brainer for me. Going totally against the way the public perceives this match, I simply must play the Under again.
Different manager, different Spurs, Brighton under pressure. Three goals get a refund with two or fewer cashing the ticket in full.
EPL Best Bet: Brighton vs Tottenham – Under 3.0 Asian Total at -127.
The post EPL Best Bets and Predictions September 20-21 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment