Falcons at Jets Preview

Game: Atlanta Falcons at New York Jets

Date: November 30th at 1:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: FOX

Atlanta finally snapped its losing streak last week against the Saints and now heads to East Rutherford, NJ to face the New York Jets. Though it’s still an extreme longshot, the Falcons remain mathematically alive in the NFC South—but they’ll need to handle business this week. After last week’s win, they sit at 4-7. The offense hasn’t been great, averaging 329.7 yards per game (18th in the NFL) and 19.9 points per game (26th). Defensively, they’ve been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 323.5 yards per game (16th) and 22.6 points per game (14th).

The Jets, meanwhile, have struggled mightily and enter at 2-9. Their offense has been especially poor, averaging just 283.2 yards per game (28th) and 19.9 points per game (26th). The defense hasn’t fared much better, giving up 322.5 yards per game (15th) and 26.5 points per game (27th).

On paper, this is a spot where Atlanta should take care of business—but with how their season has gone, you never quite know what version of the Falcons will show up.

Weather

It could be a pretty nasty day in East Rutherford, with temperatures in the mid-40s and a 65% chance of rain during the game. Winds may also play a factor, averaging around 13 mph with gusts reaching up to 20 mph.

Betting Overview

Atlanta opened as 1.5-point favorites but now sit at -3 across nearly every sportsbook. The moneyline has shifted slightly, with Atlanta now at -160 (from -120) and New York at +145 (from even). The total has dropped quite a bit from 43.5 to the 37.5–39 range depending on the book.  

Position Group & Coaching Comparisons

Coaching: This matchup doesn’t feature a premier coaching battle by any means. Aaron Glenn has shown flashes this season, but he doesn’t quite have the personnel to fully execute the schemes he wants. If I had to pick an edge, I’d lean slightly toward New York, though it’s a minimal advantage.

DLs vs. OLs: Atlanta has a clear advantage on the offensive line. Defensively, the Falcons hold a slight edge as well. Since they’re better in the trenches on both sides, Atlanta has the overall advantage here.

QBs: Kirk Cousins vs. Tyrod Taylor isn’t a matchup many expected this year, but that’s what we get on Sunday. Cousins has had the better career, but based on this season alone, this matchup is fairly even.

RBs & TEs vs. LBs: Atlanta holds the advantage here. They boast one of the stronger linebacking groups and are solid at both running back and tight end.

WRs vs. Secondaries: With both teams missing their star receivers, this category becomes tougher to evaluate. However, the Jets have more injuries in the secondary, giving a slight edge to Atlanta in this area.

Betting Trends

Atlanta comes into this one at 5-5-1 ATS, with a 3-2 record on the road, an 0-2 mark as a road favorite, and a 2-1-1 record in non-conference play. Unders have been more favorable overall, hitting in 6 of 11, including 4 of 5 on the road and both games as a road favorite. In non-conference matchups, the over has hit twice, with the other two resulting in one under and one push.

New York is 6-4-1 ATS this season, with a 2-3 record at home, a 2-2 record as a home underdog, and a 1-2 record in non-conference action. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 6 of 11, including 3 of 5 at home, while splitting 2 apiece as a home dog. In non-conference games, the over has hit in 2 of 3.

Final Thoughts

Atlanta is favored in this game for a reason, and I think last week’s win in New Orleans may have given them a bit of a spark. I believe they can go up to New York and cover in this spot. The total is tough to gauge, especially with how low it is.