Game: Miami Hurricanes vs. Ole Miss Rebels

Date: January 8th at 7:30 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

Kicking off the semifinal round of the College Football Playoff, we get an ACC vs. SEC showdown between the Miami Hurricanes and the Ole Miss Rebels. This is certainly not a matchup many would have expected to see before the season but given how wide-open college football has been this year, it’s no longer much of a surprise.

Miami has survived two tightly contested games in its first two CFP matchups, but all that matters is they won and are still standing. On the season, the Hurricanes have averaged 394.2 yards per game (50th in FBS) and 30.6 points per game (26th in FBS). Their defense, however, has been elite, allowing just 292.3 yards per game (10th in FBS) and only 13.8 points per game (4th in FBS).

Ole Miss cruised through its first-round matchup before being pushed to the limit by Georgia in the quarterfinals. The Rebels bring one of the most explosive offenses in the country into this game, averaging 488.8 yards per game (2nd in FBS) and 36.8 points per game (9th in FBS). Defensively, they have been less consistent, allowing 358.5 yards per game (46th in FBS) and 21.9 points per game (39th in FBS).

Both teams should be brimming with confidence heading into this matchup, setting up a fascinating clash between Miami’s dominant defense and Ole Miss’s high-powered offense.

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Betting Overview

The spread in this matchup has held fairly steady, with Miami opening as a 3-point favorite. Most sportsbooks have stuck to that number, while a few have moved it to 3.5. Similar stability can be seen on the moneyline, where Miami now sits at -162 (from -148), while Ole Miss is priced at +150 (from +124). The total has also seen minimal movement, opening at 51.5 and ticking up to 52 at some books.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI (last updated 12/14): In this model we see Miami at 7th giving 20.9 points to the FBS average, while Ole Miss is at 12th giving 18.5 points to the FBS average.  Even though this model is a little outdated at this point, it is still pretty close to the current line but would slightly lean in Ole Miss covering.
  • SP+ (last updated 1/2): With this model being updated just after the CFP quarterfinal, this is obviously much more representative of the team’s current form.  Here we actually see Ole miss higher at 5th giving 25.2 points to the FBS average, while Miami is at 8th giving 22.3 points to the FBS average.  Based on this, we should actually see the current line flipped with Ole Miss around a 3 point favorite.

Betting Trends

Miami enters this matchup with a strong 9–5 record against the spread, including a 6–5 mark as a favorite, a 5–1 record in non-conference games, and a perfect 2–0 record in the College Football Playoff. Totals have leaned heavily toward the under, hitting in 9 of 14 games overall, 7 of 11 as a favorite, 4 of 6 in non-conference play, and in both CFP games.

Ole Miss has posted a 7–4 ATS record this season, along with a 2–1 mark as an underdog, a 3–2 record in non-conference games, and a 2–0 record in the CFP. Over/unders have split evenly at 7–7 on the year. As an underdog, the over has hit in all three games, while the under has been the more profitable play in non-conference matchups, cashing in 4 of 5. Totals in CFP games have split 1–1.

Final Thoughts

With so much on the line Thursday night, it will be interesting to see how both teams approach the opening stages of the game. I expect a slower start as each side looks to settle in, but points should come more frequently as the game progresses. Trinidad Chambliss is set up for another strong performance, which I believe will help propel the Rebels to a victory. After two lower-scoring games for Miami in the first two rounds of the playoff, I think the trend shifts here, and the over ultimately hits.