Final Four Betting Outlook

Following an exciting weekend from the Sweet 16 to the Elite 8, the stage is finally set for the Final Four. Represented in this year’s Final Four, we have 3 different conferences, with 2 Big Ten teams in Michigan Wolverines men’s basketball and Illinois Fighting Illini men’s basketball, 1 Big 12 team in Arizona Wildcats men’s basketball, and 1 Big East team in UConn Huskies men’s basketball.

The beauty of this Final Four setup is that we are guaranteed one 1 seed in the final, as well as one non-1 seed, adding some variety to the national championship. With the Final Four being in Indianapolis, I think we will see a big fan presence from the two Big Ten schools, simply because it makes sense geographically for those fanbases.

Nevertheless, we have some really high-stakes college basketball on the line this weekend, so let’s dive into the national champion odds, as well as some of the early line movement for each of the semifinal games.

NCAA Tournament Winner Odds & Implied Probability (per DraftKings)

Illinois vs. UConn Betting Outlook

This is the matchup that will kick off the Final Four festivities and is our 2 vs. 3 seed matchup. The line in this game opened with Illinois Fighting Illini men’s basketball as a 2.5-point favorite, which can still be seen at some sportsbooks, while others have shifted to Illinois -2 or even -1.5. The moneyline has seen similar movement, going from the opening number of -148 for Illinois to -135 or even -130, while UConn Huskies men’s basketball has gone from +124 to between +110 and +115.

Looking at the total, we’ve seen this drop from the opening number of 140.5 to 139 or 139.5 depending on the sportsbook.

As it stands right now, 57% of bets on the spread are on UConn, while just 51% of the money is on the UConn spread. A slight majority of bets are also on the UConn moneyline at a 55% clip, with even more of the money on the UConn moneyline at 64%. As for the over/under, 90% of bets are on the over, with 83% of the money following on the over.

Michigan vs. Arizona Betting Outlook

In what is no doubt the more highly anticipated matchup between the two 1 seeds, we have an absolute dogfight on our hands. In this one, we actually saw Arizona Wildcats men’s basketball open as a 1.5-point favorite, but now we see Michigan Wolverines men’s basketball as a 1.5-point favorite, which is pretty much consensus across all sportsbooks at the moment.

We saw Michigan open at even odds on the moneyline, while they now sit between -120 and -128, while Arizona opened at -120 and can now be found between even odds and +106. The total has taken a slight bump from the opening number of 156.5 to 157.5.

Arizona is currently taking the majority of bets on the spread at 56%, while the majority of the money, spread-wise, is coming in on Michigan at 53%. Arizona is also taking 54% of moneyline bets, while the majority of the money on the moneyline is on Michigan at 51%. As for the total, 77% of bets are on the over, with just 55% of the money on the over.

Final Thoughts

Obviously, you can see the 1 seeds have the clear betting favoritism to win it all, but this Final Four is wide open. Any team that makes it to a Final Four has beaten strong opponents along the way, and when you only have one game to win in the national championship, it can truly be anyone’s game.

With fairly balanced betting splits and line movement in both matchups, we should be in for two highly competitive semifinal games. I’m sure we’ll see some great battles, and it should set us up for an excellent national championship.