Arizona vs. Michigan Prediction

Upsets and Cinderella stories make the NCAA Tournament endearing and engaging to the masses, but real ball knowers want this kind of game in the Final Four. Arizona vs. Michigan just might be one of the best games of all-time, if not the best game of all-time, based on the statistical profiles of these two teams and how well they have played in the tourney. There are so many fantastic storylines, key matchups, and main characters to discuss with two teams that have combined to go 71-5 this season, with the five losses by a combined 25 points. Somebody has to lose here, though.

Make VSiN your home for the duration of the NCAA Tournament and beyond. Take advantage of our college basketball betting tools and previews and predictions on every single March Madness game. We have College Basketball Betting Splits from DraftKings Sportsbook and Circa Sports, updated Vegas College Basketball Odds, College Basketball Odds from other states, College Basketball Matchup Data, and more.

Check out Greg Peterson’s Daily College Basketball Lines, Steve Makinen’s Power Ratings Lines, and look at College Basketball Picks from our VSiN Experts.

See all of our game previews and predictions in our March Madness Betting Hub.

How to Watch Arizona vs. Michigan

When: 8:49 pm ET on Saturday, April 4

Where: Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN

Watch: TBS

Odds for Arizona vs. Michigan

Embed from Getty Images

(odds as Sun. Mar. 29, 4:15 p.m. PT)

Spread: Michigan -1.5 (+102), Arizona +1.5 (-122)

Moneyline: Michigan -115, Arizona -105

Total: Over 157.5 (-110), Under 157.5 (-115)

Arizona vs. Michigan Prediction & Preview

If this game is close in the final minutes, as the spread and the side-by-side comparison of the teams would imply, which one is going to execute better? Michigan’s four wins in the NCAA Tournament have been by 21, 23, 13, and 33. Arizona’s four wins have been by 34, 12, 21, and 15. It seems unlikely that we’ll end up with a double-digit decision here.

The Wolverines are ranked No. 1 for both KenPom and Bart Torvik, while both sites have the Wildcats ranked second. Weaknesses are pretty much non-existent for these two teams, as KenPom lists Michigan fifth in adjusted offensive efficiency and Arizona fourth, while the Wolverines boast the No. 1 adjusted defensive efficiency and the Wildcats are No. 2. Both teams have played top-10 schedules.

Torvik’s site has things a little different, as Michigan is fourth in adjusted offensive efficiency and third on defense, while Arizona is sixth and first, respectively. The biggest difference between the two teams is shot selection, in that Michigan’s 3P Rate is 15.5% higher than Arizona’s. The Wildcats and Wolverines make a similar rate of 3s, with Michigan at 36.9% and Arizona at 36.7%, but Arizona’s 3P Rate is one of the three lowest in the nation, while Michigan’s ranks in the 130s. To this point, Arizona has had a good draw of opposing defenses with Arkansas and Purdue in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight, respectively. The Razorbacks were one of the worst 2P% defenses in the power conferences and just barely finished in the top 200 in eFG% defense. Similarly, the Boilermakers rank in the 230s in eFG% defense and struggle to defend 2-point shots.

Michigan excels on defense and ranks in the top five in 2P% defense and Block%. It is going to be a far more difficult task for the Wildcats to get inside and continue to convert at the rim at a high rate. Arizona was 32-of-50 (64%) on 2s against Arkansas and 22-of-43 (51.2%) against Purdue. Michigan has only allowed a 44.3% conversion rate on shots inside the arc.

There are two teams better than Michigan at defending 2-point shots and Arizona is one of them. The Wildcats are second in the country in eFG% defense, with Michigan the only team with a better number. Michigan has shot over 61% on 2s this season and Arizona has been better than 55%, but, again, Arizona is taking a 2-pointer nearly 75% of the time and Michigan has more variety in their offensive game.

Will that be the difference here? Keep in mind that this game will be played in a football stadium, so the sightlines and depth perceptions for the shooters are going to be more challenging than normal. Perhaps that will help Arizona with their lower rate of triple tries. Brayden Burries took the most 3s for the Wildcats and shot better than 40%, but the other most frequent distance shooters for Arizona were Anthony Dell’Orso (33.1%) and Ivan Kharchenkov (31.4%). Dell’Orso has only played 22 minutes over the last two games. It might be up to Jaden Bradley, who is a 39.4% shooter from 3, but he’s only taken 66 of them and is 3-for-9 in the tournament thus far.

On the Michigan side, four players – Yaxel Lendeborg (37.2%), Elliot Cadeau (37.7%), Trey McKenney (38.4%), and Nimari Burnett (38.1%) have all taken at least 155 3-pointers. Lendeborg, Johnson, and Mara have combined to take more than 540 Close Twos, so shots at the rim. That sort of versatility and shot selection has the chance to be very problematic for Arizona.

Estimated Score: TBD

For expert predictions, go to our college basketball best bets page.

The post Final Four Picks: Arizona vs. Michigan Prediction & Preview appeared first on VSiN.