The model predictions took a small step back last week, going 2-2, but the overall start to 2026 remains strong at 22-7 on the year. As always, the focus isn’t chasing hot streaks but continuing to find spots where the numbers disagree with the market.
This week’s card carries much bigger stakes. UFC 326 is headlined by a BMF Championship clash between two of the most accomplished fighters of the modern era — Max Holloway and Charles Oliveira. Between them they hold dozens of UFC records, championships, and highlight-reel finishes, making this one of the most entertaining matchups the promotion could put together.
On this week’s episode of First Strike, we were joined by Fightnomics author Reed Kuhn, one of the pioneers of statistical analysis in MMA, to break down the numbers behind the card and discuss how analytics can shape betting decisions in a sport known for chaos.
Let’s take a closer look at where the model sees value on the UFC 326 card.
Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao
Every year or so we get a reminder that former bantamweight champion Cody Garbrandt is still on the UFC roster.
Now 34 years old, Garbrandt enters this fight on a two-fight losing streak. First a submission loss to Deiveson Figueiredo, followed by a decision loss to Raoni Barcelos in July of 2025. It’s been a long road since his championship run, and the numbers paint a tough picture of what that decline has looked like.
Since losing the belt back in 2017, Garbrandt has gone 3–6 (or 3–7 if you include the title loss). That’s the brutal reality of this sport. The climb back to the top is often much harder than the fall.
Across the cage is Long Xiao, who is making his debut inside the model after a short UFC run that currently sits at 1–2 in the promotion. Most recently he dropped a decision in August of 2025, but the limited data we do have suggests he’s been competitive in those fights.
The first thing that jumps off the page is the reach advantage. Xiao will hold a five-inch reach edge at 70 inches, which could play a role if this fight stays standing, something that seems very likely given the tendencies of both fighters.
Even with only a small UFC sample, Xiao has still managed to produce a 67% xR%, showing he can win rounds even in defeat. Garbrandt, on the other hand, sits at 48% xR%, a number that reflects the struggles he’s had over the past several years.
Garbrandt’s path to victory historically has always been power. At his peak, he was one of the most dangerous knockout artists in the division, recording 11 knockdowns in the UFC. But the output behind that power has slowed considerably.
Today, Garbrandt lands just 2.88 significant strikes per minute with a –0.76 differential, meaning he’s absorbing more than he’s landing. Xiao, meanwhile, has shown a much higher work rate, landing 5.38 significant strikes per minute with a +0.41 differential.
If Garbrandt can’t win the output battle, the question becomes whether he can lean on a grappling approach instead.
That path doesn’t look particularly promising either. Xiao actually holds the stronger positional metrics, maintaining a 78% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, compared to just 46% for Garbrandt.
Neither fighter is known for heavy wrestling offense, but Garbrandt does hold the edge in takedown attempts statistically with 10 takedowns across 16 UFC fights. Even there, though, his success rate is only 28%, and both men defend takedowns extremely well. 84% for Garbrandt and 82% for Xiao.
With neither fighter likely to force grappling exchanges (Hello Paramount Era), this matchup should mostly take place on the feet. And in that scenario, Xiao appears to hold the cleaner statistical advantages.
When we run it through the model, it lands clearly on Long Xiao, giving him a 68.40% win probability. His current line around –135 implies roughly 57%, leaving a small but real edge according to the numbers.
The model is confident enough to recommend the play, although we do have to acknowledge the limited sample size on Xiao. Still, with the data available, this is good enough to add Long Xiao to the betting slip for Saturday.
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
Embed from Getty ImagesThis one should be violent.
Originally, Brunno Ferreira was scheduled to face Paulo Costa, but Costa doing Paulo Costa things means that fight never made it to the cage. Instead, Ferreira gets a familiar opponent stepping in, “Robocop” Gregory Rodrigues.
And this isn’t just any matchup. It’s a rematch from 2023, where Ferreira shocked everyone by knocking out Rodrigues in the first round of his UFC debut.
At the time, Rodrigues entered that fight as a –310 favorite, and for most of the opening round the numbers suggested that price might have been justified. The striking was competitive, both men landing at around 50% accuracy, with Ferreira only edging the volume 22 strikes to 21.
Then one punch changed everything.
Three years later, both fighters have added plenty of new data to their resumes.
Rodrigues has gone 5–1 since that loss, currently riding a two-fight win streak that includes a decision victory over Roman Kopylov last November. Ferreira has also stayed busy, going 5–2 over that stretch, and he enters this fight on a three-fight win streak after most recently beating Marvin Vettori by decision. Though he did miss weight in that bout.
So where do these two stand in 2026?
For starters, Rodrigues will hold a three-inch reach advantage at 75 inches, and the numbers overall favor him more strongly this time around. His xR% sits at 69%, while Ferreira hovers much closer to the danger zone at 51%. A number that reflects the chaotic style he often fights with.
Both men can clearly finish fights. Ferreira already has five UFC finishes, while Rodrigues has recorded six knockouts in the promotion.
But when we look deeper into the striking metrics, Rodrigues begins to separate slightly.
He lands 5.59 significant strikes per minute with a +0.81 differential, though he does absorb a fair amount of damage himself at 4.78 per minute. Ferreira’s output is noticeably lower at 3.68 significant strikes per minute, paired with a –0.25 differential.
Ferreira has proven he only needs one clean shot — we’ve seen that already — but Rodrigues still carries serious power of his own with seven knockdowns in his UFC career.
Ironically, Rodrigues is also the only fighter of the two who has been knocked down in the UFC, suffering that fate three times.
If there’s an alternate path to victory in this fight, it likely belongs to Rodrigues as well. His grappling numbers show a 73% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, compared to just 40% for Ferreira.
Still, neither fighter has shown particularly strong takedown accuracy, and much like their first meeting, the expectation here is that this fight plays out largely on the feet.
When we run the updated numbers through the model, the result sees Robocop evening the series.
The model favors Gregory Rodrigues, assigning him a 75.72% win probability. The sportsbooks still have him as the favorite — currently around –210 — but the model believes his chances of winning are higher than the market suggests.
Last time Rodrigues entered as a massive favorite and paid the price.
Three years later, the model believes he has the opportunity to right that wrong and get his revenge.
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson
Thirty-seven-year-old Drew Dober versus thirty-nine-year-old Michael Johnson.
Degenerate paradise.
Between the two of them, we’re looking at 88 professional fights. Johnson made his UFC debut all the way back in 2010, while Dober followed in 2014. These guys have been around forever, and at this stage of their careers you generally know exactly what you’re getting.
Violence.
Dober enters this fight off a TKO win in October 2025, though zoom out and the recent run hasn’t been great. He’s just 2–4 since 2023 and has taken a fair amount of damage along the way.
Johnson, on the other hand, has quietly put together a bit of momentum. He’s riding a three-fight win streak, most recently defeating Daniel Zellhuber by decision last July. That leaves him 3–1 since 2023, which is not bad at all for a fighter approaching 40.
Let’s hit the numbers.
Johnson will hold a three-inch reach advantage at 73 inches, and he also carries the edge in the model’s round-winning metric. Johnson sits at a modest but workable 57% xR%, while Dober dips into the danger zone at 49%.
Neither of these guys is shy about mixing it up. Between them they’ve recorded 22 knockdowns and 16 combined TKO victories, which tells you everything you need to know about how this fight is likely to play out.
From a striking standpoint, the numbers are actually pretty close.
Johnson lands 4.28 significant strikes per minute with a +0.49 differential, while Dober lands 4.52 per minute with a +0.18 differential. Johnson absorbs just under four strikes per minute, while Dober sits slightly above that mark.
Neither fighter relies heavily on grappling either (Hello Paramount Era). Dober maintains a 37% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, while Johnson sits at 32%. Over long UFC careers, Johnson has recorded 14 takedowns, compared to nine for Dober, but wrestling has rarely been the focal point for either fighter.
If someone does attempt to change levels, Johnson’s 81% takedown defense stands out as the most reliable defensive metric in the matchup, compared to Dober’s 58% defense rate.
But realistically, this fight probably plays out where both men are most comfortable. Standing in the pocket and trading.
Last week the model pointed us toward a 39-year-old King Green, and that ticket cashed. This week the price isn’t nearly as attractive, but the model once again lands on the older veteran.
Running the numbers gives Michael Johnson a 77.49% win probability.
The market currently has him sitting from –110 to -120, which makes this one of the few spots on the card where the model sees legitimate value.
It may not be the prettiest fight on paper, but according to the numbers, Michael Johnson is the side here. In 2026, I’d rather be taking Michael Johnson as an underdog, but he’s just not facing someone that he should be an underdog against.
Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
If you were designing a fight to represent the spirit of the BMF belt, this might be the matchup you come up with.
Two legends. Two fan favorites. Two fighters who have built their reputations on violence and unforgettable fights.
This weekend at UFC 326, Max “Blessed” Holloway defends the BMF Championship against Charles “Do Bronx” Oliveira, and when you look at the record books, you start to realize just how much history is stepping into the cage together.
Between the two of them, the numbers are ridiculous.
- Charles Oliveira sits top 10 all-time in total UFC fights with 36
- Max Holloway is top 5 all-time in wins with 23
- Oliveira holds the UFC record for finishes with 21
- Holloway sits inside the top 10 with 13 finishes
- Max is tied for top 3 all-time in knockouts with 11
- Oliveira owns the most submission wins in UFC history with 17
- He’s also second all-time in submission attempts with 47
And when it comes to fight night bonuses, these two have practically made a career out of them.
Oliveira leads the UFC with 21 bonuses, while Holloway sits in the top 10 with 13.
That’s 34 bonuses between the two of them.
Then there’s Holloway’s striking résumé, which might be the most absurd statistic of the entire group.
Max Holloway holds the record for most significant strikes landed in UFC history with 3,655. The next closest fighter, Sean Strickland, sits at 2,307.
That gap alone tells you how much volume Holloway has produced during his career.
He also leads the UFC in total strikes landed at 3,907 and still averages an incredible 7.20 significant strikes per minute, which keeps him inside the top 10 all-time in output.
If there’s one thing Max wants to do, it’s fight at distance and overwhelm opponents with pace.
In fact, 87% of his fight time is spent striking at range, where he’s built his reputation as one of the greatest volume strikers the sport has ever seen. His +2.46 strike differential shows just how effective that pace can be.
Charles Oliveira brings a completely different kind of danger.
While Holloway owns the striking records, Oliveira’s path to greatness has been built through finishes.
He has 21 total finishes, including 17 submissions, and his willingness to attack constantly has produced 47 submission attempts, one of the highest totals the UFC has ever seen.
Even in recent years, Oliveira has continued to prove that his ground game remains elite, most recently submitting Mateusz Gamrot in October.
But this fight comes with a bit of history.
The two first met back in 2015, when Holloway defeated Oliveira via TKO. Technically speaking, it counts as a stoppage win for Max, but the ending was unusual. Oliveira attempted a takedown early in the first round and suffered a shoulder injury that forced the fight to stop just 1:39 into the opening round.
Now, more than ten years later, both fighters return with championship résumés, highlight reels, and a decade of wars behind them.
From a stylistic standpoint, the matchup is clear.
Holloway will want to keep the fight standing and force Oliveira into extended striking exchanges. That’s exactly where Max has built his legacy.
Oliveira, meanwhile, will be searching for opportunities to drag the fight into grappling situations, where his submission threat becomes one of the most dangerous weapons in MMA.
But getting Holloway to the mat has never been easy.
Max holds an impressive 83% takedown defense, which has allowed him to dictate where fights take place throughout his career.
And when opponents are forced to stand with him, Holloway makes them pay.
Running the matchup through the model gives us a slight lean toward the champion.
The model assigns Max Holloway a 58.98% win probability, but unfortunately the betting market has already pushed his price higher than that edge.
Holloway currently sits around –220, which implies roughly 68% win probability.
That leaves us in an uncomfortable spot.
The model believes Holloway wins the fight, but it doesn’t believe he wins it often enough to justify that price.
And with a fight between two legends like this, variance is always lurking.
For now, the model report will track Max Holloway as the projected winner, but unless the line moves significantly, this may end up being a fight we simply sit back and enjoy.
Because regardless of the betting angle…
This one should be violent.
That wraps up the betting outlook for UFC 326. While the card carries big-event energy with Holloway and Oliveira battling for the BMF title, the betting approach remains the same: trust the numbers, look for mispriced lines, and stay disciplined when the edge isn’t there.
The model sits at 22-7 to start 2026, and the goal remains steady, long-term profitability rather than forcing action on every fight. Some cards present obvious opportunities, while others require patience. And understanding the difference is one of the most important skills in MMA betting.
For more analysis and discussion on the card, including our conversation with Fightnomics author Reed Kuhn, be sure to check out this week’s episode of First Strike, available wherever you listen to podcasts and on YouTube.
You can also follow along throughout fight week on X for updates and betting insights from me, @TheRobbeo, and @drosssports.
Enjoy the fights and good luck this weekend.
Model Prediction | Win Prob. %
- Max Holloway | 58.98%
- Caio Borralho | 57.79%
- Raul Rosas Jr. | 57.73%
- Michael Johnson | 77.49%
- Gregory Rodrigues | 75.72%
- Long Xiao | 68.40%
- Sumudaerji | 71.93%
- Gaston Bolaños | 59.14%
*BOLD fighters are in play
The post First Strike Podcast Model Predictions for UFC 326: Holloway vs Oliveira appeared first on VSiN.
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