Game: Florida State Seminoles at. NC State Wolfpack

Date: November 21st at 8:00 PM ET

Where to Watch: ESPN

In a matchup between former ACC Atlantic rivals, we get two teams that started the season strong but have stumbled in recent weeks: Florida State and NC State. Florida State opened the year as well as anyone, and many believed the Seminoles were on track for a College Football Playoff run. Lately, though, they’ve been inconsistent. They are coming off a win over Virginia Tech, bringing them back to .500 at 5–5, though their ACC record sits at just 2–5. Statistically, the offense has performed well, averaging 460.9 yards per game (12th in FBS) and 31.9 points per game (28th). Defensively, they’ve also held their own, allowing 335.9 yards per game (30th) and 22.2 points per game (37th).

NC State, meanwhile, went from the high of beating a top-10 Georgia Tech team to the low of getting rolled by Miami. They also sit at 5–5 overall, with a 2–4 record in ACC play. Offensively, the Wolfpack have been average, putting up 387 yards per game (61st) and 27 points per game (68th). The defense, however, has struggled significantly, allowing 468.4 yards per game (130th) and 34 points per game (120th).

While this sets up a fun Friday night matchup, it may also be one of the most unpredictable games of the entire college football season.

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Weather

This matchup could be interesting from a weather standpoint. Temperatures should be comfortable in the low to mid-60s, but there is a 60% chance of rain Friday evening. Winds are expected to average around 12 mph, with gusts reaching up to 16 mph.

Betting Overview

This matchup opened with Florida State favored at -2.5, but they have since moved to 4.5–5 point favorites. Surprisingly, the moneyline hasn’t shifted much, with the best value currently sitting at -188 for FSU and +180 for NC State. The total has remained unchanged at 61.5.

Power Ratings 

  • ESPN FPI: FSU is still surprisingly high on the FPI model at 26th giving 10.5 to the FBS average, while NC State sits at 59th giving 1.5 points to the FBS average.  Based on this model we would see FSU as 9-point favorites on a neutral field, so we should see them closer to 6.5-to-7.5-point favorites in this one.
  • SP+: This model isn’t quite as high on FSU as they’re at 28th but are giving 11.6 to the FBS average, and NC State is much lower at 68th giving 0.6 to the FBS average.  Using this we should see the Seminoles as even stronger favorites than even FPI projects.

Betting Trends

FSU’s ATS record mirrors its straight-up mark at 5–5. On the road, the Seminoles are 0–3, and they sit at 2–5 in conference play. Totals have split 5–5 overall, including a 1–1 split as an away favorite. Within the ACC, however, the under has hit in 5 of 7 games.

NC State has dipped below .500 ATS at 4–6, though the Wolfpack are 3–2 at home and 1–0 as a home underdog. In conference play, they’re 3–4 ATS. Totals have leaned toward the over, hitting in 6 of 10 games overall, including 3 of 5 at home and their lone game as a home underdog. In ACC matchups, the over has cashed in 5 of 7.

Final Thoughts

Both teams have been inconsistent all season, and Friday night will finally give one of them a chance to break through and secure bowl eligibility. I do think Florida State will cover the narrow spread here, despite how they’ve performed on the road this year. The total is set high at 61.5, so I’m staying away from that number.