MLB picks today, including Cubs vs. Brewers, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Dodgers vs.. Phillies, and Tigers vs. Mariners.

Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks for Saturday, October 4.

Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and our new tools from Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.

2:08 PM Eastern

Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers

Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has a stellar 2.70 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings this season, which improves to 1.77 at home. However, he also carries a 3.65 FIP with 3.4 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by an offense that leads the National League in scoring since the All-Star Break, averaging 5.3 runs per game.The Cubs are expected to start Matthew Boyd, who will be going on short rest after pitching Tuesday in the Wild Card Round. Despite his 3.21 ERA during the regular season, Boyd has allowed at least four runs in five of his past eight starts.

Pick: Over 7 Runs

Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.5

4:08 PM Eastern

New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays

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Yankees starter Luis Gil has underlying issues that his 3.32 ERA doesn’t show. He’s posted just 6.5 strikeouts and 5.2 walks per nine innings, resulting in a 4.63 FIP. Still, he’s limited hard contact well, allowing only 0.8 home runs per nine innings.

He’ll face a Blue Jays lineup that leads the American League in scoring since the All-Star Break, averaging over 5.4 runs per game. Toronto counters with Kevin Gausman, who has a 3.59 ERA, 8.8 strikeouts, and 1.0 home run allowed per nine innings. He’s held opponents to two earned runs or fewer in 12 of his past 17 starts.

Pick: Blue Jays Moneyline -120 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Blue Jays -135 and Total 7.6

6:38 PM Eastern

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Phillies starter Cristopher Sánchez has been dominant, posting a 2.50 ERA and allowing zero or one run in five of his past six starts. He’s giving up just 0.5 home runs and 2.0 walks per nine innings.

He faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the National League in scoring at 5.1 runs per game. Shohei Ohtani gets the start for L.A., with a 2.87 ERA and a remarkable 1.90 FIP, backed by a 11.9 K/9 and just 1.7 BB/9. However, the Dodgers are just 5-9 in games he’s pitched, and he’s gone 4.1 innings or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts. The Dodgers bullpen ranks 21st in ERA at 4.27.

Pick: Phillies Moneyline -120 and Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Phillies -132 and Total 7.2

8:38 PM Eastern

Detroit Tigers vs. Seattle Mariners

Mariners starter George Kirby holds a 4.21 ERA but a better 3.37 FIP, with 1.1 home runs and just 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings. His ERA drops to 3.38 at home.

The Tigers are likely to open with Troy Melton for an inning or two before turning to Keider Montero in a bulk role. Montero has a 4.37 ERA and a 4.93 FIP, with 7.1 strikeouts and 3.1 walks per nine innings. He’s backed by a bullpen ranked 17th in ERA at 4.05, while the offense is averaging 4.7 runs per game.

Pick: Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.2

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