Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 28

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Florida Derby, Gulfstream Park, Race #14

It’s time for the main event of the prep season, the Florida Derby! We have four top contenders for the run for the roses, all headed to the post at Gulfstream in what has been one of the most productive preps in recent history. 

If you follow me, you will not be shocked that I am going to back #2 Chief Wallabee. I loved the debut, and the return in the Fountain of Youth was just as impressive. He was hung wide on both turns and lost to a dream rail trip by #4 Commandment. Chief should get better with the extra distance and experience here, and any step forward makes him ultra tough. 

#6 Nearly is the wild card here. Not because he has not been good, but because he simply has not faced any of the main competition. He has won back-to-back races impressively over short fields, so you know there is talent. It’s just a question of how much talent. I feel like I’ve got a very good grasp on the other three main runners here, but Nearly could very much surprise me to either the upside or downside here. 

#8 The Puma enters off a validating win in the Tampa Bay Derby. He lost to Chief Wallabee on debut, which is a knock against, but is likely to sit a good trip if Castellano decides to run back the style from the Tampa Bay Derby and come from the back. It’s how these connections had success with Mage, so I would expect more of the same here. It’s going to be tough for him to win, but I expect he hits the board. 

#4 Commandment loses rider Irad Ortiz Jr to another derby horse we will talk about soon, but Prat is far from a downgrade. While I think distance will be an issue at a mile and a quarter in the Derby, I do not think a mile and an eighth will be an issue today. I am more concerned that you do not get the dream trip again that was gifted to him in the Fountain of Youth. 

If you are looking for a trifecta/superfecta bomb, it would be the #1 Albus, who should be forward from the jump.

Top 4: 2-6-8-4
The Bets: $50 Win #2

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Arkansas Derby, Oaklawn Park, Race #13

All eyes will be on #6 Renegade, who is one of the current favorites for the Kentucky Derby, as he tries to continue his run now that he is away from Paladin. He looked good in the Sam F Davis and was always planning on running here. He should get a reasonable pace today, and he is definitely the horse to beat. That being said, should he be 3/2 or possibly shorter at post? Probably not, so let’s look elsewhere. 

#3 Blackout Time was “too bad to believe” last time out in the Rebel. Despite the performance, McPeek sends his best 3-year-old here. He will be better today, and the price should be right. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and should be right around there when they break from the gate. 

#2 Silent Tactic has made some noise in both of the previous Oaklawn preps, winning the Southwest and running second in the Rebel. Both races, he had the pace to chase that helped set up the late kick. There is not as much signed on today, but he is clearly getting better, and the distance should not be an issue.

#1 Redland Rebels was a better-than-expected fourth-place runner after setting fast fractions in the Tampa Bay Derby. He should be alone on the lead on Saturday, which could lead to an upset here. 

I’ve got to give a mention to #5 Taptastic here as well. He is 20-1 on the morning line and a live entry for Steve Asmussen. He was awesome in his debut and, while it is a jump up, he is bred to be a runner, and Asmussen is not usually this aggressive. 

Top 4: 3-6-1-5
The Bets: $50 Win #3

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