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Hillsborough Stakes, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #9

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I’m going to go back to the well one last time with #8 And One More Time, who disappointed in her last start, but there was a plethora of excuses. She was forward, but wide throughout the race while on a hot pace. That’s about as rough as it can get on the Gulfstream turf. Today she drew wide again, but she is also the quickest in the field. I expect a change of tactics and a gate-to-wire win at a nice price. 

#1 Whiskey Decision is also coming off a rough trip, where at least some of the blame falls on Prat who got Whiskey way too far back early. She was rolling late, but had to deal with traffic and simply ran out of time. She’s live here, but a short price.

#2 Proctor Street also exits the same race as the two above and was simply too bad to believe. It was the worst race of her career for no real reason. I am willing to throw that out and play her back under the top two here at a better price. 

#7 Scythian is the price I am interested in here. She’s second off the layoff, possesses enough early speed to be in it from the jump in a race devoid of pace and sitting on the board at 10-1.

Top 4: 8-1-2-7
The Bets – $50 Win #8

Tampa Bay Derby, Tampa Bay Downs, Race #11

We are treated to another great Kentucky Derby prep this weekend in the Tampa Bay Derby with five viable winners and potential Derby horses. I’m going to go back to #8 The Puma here, who I felt got a pretty rough trip in the Sam F Davis last time out. He was not able to rally when accelerating due to traffic, had to gear down and then was forced inside with little time to catch the top two. Castellano takes back over today, which is a clear upgrade. There is talent here; hopefully, he gets the chance to show it on Saturday. 

#9 Canaletto is a better Kentucky Derby contender than The Puma, but has to answer some questions today at a much shorter price; 5-2 versus 8-1. This will be the second start of his career and the first time around two turns. Additionally, we do not know what style to expect from Canaletto. He basically won gate to wire over a very good field at Gulfstream first time out, but he is unlikely to be quick enough to get the lead here. Can he stalk? Maybe, if he does it well, he is the most likely winner. He’s simply too short of a price for me to bet to win. 

#2 Talkin is the price I am willing to take a shot with here. He was good in his first two career starts before an impossible trip in the Remsen, where he was hung four wide on the first turn. He will get a much better trip this time around, so the question will simply be if he is good enough. 

#5 Powershift is a newcomer to the stakes level for Todd Pletcher. He was great in defeat on debut, and this was the plan all along. If he can outbreak the 1, he may be able to walk the dog on the front end and immediately becomes a player.

Top 4: 8-9-2-5
The Bets – $50 Win #8

The post Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, March 7 from Mike Somich appeared first on VSiN.