Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Patrick Moquin handicaps the Saturday, March 14 racing card at Colonial Downs, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 1.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Beijing (1st race)
First Race
1. Beijing
2. Ramajay
3. Mizner
BEIJING has all the markings of a promising first-time starter for Walden, who must be encouraged by solid works in Florida early on; sire Vekoma wins with 21% of first-time starters, and through the dam this colt is a half-brother to Unifying, a stakes winner on dirt in 2023; Velazquez is aboard, and based on the number of entries here, it’s possible that Walden entered two in order to ensure that the field filled; this one offers more hints of precocity. RAMAJAY is one of two contenders with ample experience in this field, which can be a blessing and a curse; the gelding has finished second in 4 of 5 career starts, arguably squandering several winning chances along the way; this is a prime spot to break through, but that has been the case before. MIZNER will return from a long layoff for Russell, having made one start as a juvenile last September; he showed nothing that day, but so much has changed since that the poor effort can be forgotten; now a gelding, he should step forward for top connections.
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Here are Patrick’s thoughts on the other nine races on Saturday’s Colonial Downs card.
Second Race
1. Vino Bella
2. As the Bell Toles
3. Clearly Inish
VINO BELLA returned from a long layoff for Stidham last time out and and ran solidly off the bench, finishing a distant fourth against stronger maiden claimers with a 47 Beyer; Stidham is bringing her to Virginia in search of a more comfortable spot, and her efforts on dirt early last year suggest that she may have something more to offer; easy to see things coming together. AS THE BELL TOLES was claimed by Russell two back, and though she improved on a dreadful effort in December, she didn’t noticeably move the needle in an 8 1/2-length defeat; one must imagine that Russell keeps moving forward with the filly, who could fit in well with the other contenders here if she keeps building back. CLEARLY INISH is a fairly consistent option in a volatile field, as the filly has earned consistent figures at Mahoning Valley for Bernardini; hard to understand how that form will translate here, but at least the distance isn’t such a question.
Third Race
1. Cool Customer
2. Summerinthecountry
3. Hard Stance
COOL CUSTOMER is cross-entered in a race Friday, but he drew the far outside in that field and gets the rail here; he’s an intriguing contender for Stidham, as the gelding will return to dirt at Colonial; his only previous tries on the surface were also at Colonial and seemed strong enough to warrant consideration in the maiden ranks at the time; the waters got deeper when he returned this year to try the turf at Fair Grounds, but his trainer is bringing him back to a comfortable spot this time. SUMMERINTHECOUNTRY has been overwhelmed in maiden special weights in his last two starts, and he regressed in an awkward performance last time out; still, his typical performance seems good enough at this lower level, and McMahon’s attempt to get him class relief at this point seems prudent. HARD STANCE will make his debut for Farrior, who doesn’t ship quite as many horses to Colonial as he does to Laurel; sire Hard Spun demands respect and the trainer often sends his best out with intent; his recent works suggest he’s ready.
Fourth Race
1. Ezum
2. Naabaahii
3. Sir George
EZUM might not receive considerable attention if he was backed by a different trainer, but Cox deserves more faith than most; the $485,000 colt did not have much to say in his debut at Gulfstream last month, flashing early speed before cratering through the field; in response to that effort, Cox is making the intriguing decision to stretch him out to a mile and keep him at much the same level for this trip to Virginia; he’s training well ahead of this second start and there’s plenty of room for improvement. NAABAAHII will make his debut at a mile for Russell, who is just as effective with runners making their first start in routes; sire Liam’s Map fares slightly better with older firsters, striking at a 13% clip with 3-year-olds and up; the workouts aren’t outstanding and the dam has passed down more ability on turf, but he remains one that must be considered on first asking. SIR GEORGE returned from a long layoff last month to earn his second runner-up finish in his 3-year-old debut, finishing second behind next-out stakes winner Taj Mahal; Gorham is keeping him moving at his third track in three starts.
Fifth Race
1. Dragoon Guard
2. Tour Player
3. Raise Cain
DRAGOON GUARD carried on in supremely solid fashion as a 4-year-old last year, even if the wins dried up in stakes company; a runner-up in a $250,000 stakes at Churchill Downs last November, he will make his 2026 debut as the obvious horse to beat here for Cox; he might not be a guaranteed pacesetter, but he has proven capable of sitting just off the pace and delivering strong performances in the past; little to say about him that is not immediately apparent on paper. TOUR PLAYER took a deserved step up to Grade 3 company in January but did not improve in that spot, finishing fifth behind top sprinter Knightsbridge with an 87 Beyer; this field has its scary faces, but there’s no one nearly as daunting as the one he last to last time out; Beckman seems to have done well by the 5-year-old in their brief time together. RAISE CAIN moved to Russell’s barn and made his return off a long layoff in December, winning a Laurel allowance by 4 3/4 lengths with an 89 Beyer; the 6-year-old has been at the mix at high levels throughout his career, but he might go overlooked in this particular field; dangerous one flying under the radar.
Sixth Race
1. Passage East
2. Her Laugh
3. Chasten
PASSAGE EAST has been practically untouchable for nearly a year now, constantly climbing the ladder and winning eight of his last nine starts on the way up; the filly looked spectacular in a $200,000 stakes at Laurel last time out, and though the waters get a little deeper again here and the one-turn mile might not be a a toy what she wants, but a few scratches should help her on the rail; she’s as ready as she’ll ever be. HER LAUGH earned a career-best 89 Beyer at Gulfstream in January, but that improvement mattered little in a Grade 2; the filly has been in some tough fields in her last two and has held her own, making her a highly logical pick getting class relief this time; Mott’s confidence placing her recently is also a key indicator. CHASTEN has had trouble stringing starts together for Cox, or else she probably would have tried multiple stakes by this point; she returned from a long layoff in January and looked strong in an allowance at Fair Grounds, shaking off the rust to earn an 83 Beyer; won’t take much for her to contend.
Seventh Race
1. Eunomia
2. Think Fast
3. Conch Fried Rice
EUNOMIA is coming off a third in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream, in which she finished well behind runaway stablemate Claret Beret; she won back-to-back allowances in Florida before taking that step up, which likely would have made her a contender in this field even if she hadn’t taken that classy try last time out; she has shipped with success at several points in her career, so if she can sustain her current form against group, she’s almost certain to be closer to the line than she was last time. THINK FAST is a sneaky contender that shouldn’t be ignored in this field; McMahon got her in his barn two back and he immediately tried a stakes with her at Laurel; the filly got a few months off over the winter and came back even sharper, drawing away to win with an 85 Beyer; it seems like the ideal prep for this one-turn mile, and though the waters get deeper, she’s being prepared well. CONCH FRIED RICE exploded in her last allowance start, earning a 92 Beyer for a 10-length score at Fair Grounds; seemed like she was expecting company and no one challenged her when she inherited the lead; it’s always dangerous to bet a horse off a single effort, especially in stakes company.
Eighth Race
1. Bottle of Rouge
2. Dazzling Dame
3. Hit Parade
BOTTLE OF ROUGE is a fairly obvious top pick coming out of a victory in the Sunland Park Oaks, as Baffert has already successfully targeted one soft Kentucky Oaks prep and seems to have found another one here at Colonial; most fillies in this field will have to significantly improve to seriously challenge her if she successfully runs back to the 86 Beyer she earned last time out; overwhelming presence. DAZZLING DAME is the local contender in this field, having run at five different tracks on the East Coast in five career starts; make it six now, and give her a solid chance coming off an 11 1/2-length win in the Busanda at Aqueduct in January, for which she earned a 90 Beyer; she scrapped last time and will get the rail off the layoff; Russell is ready to mix it up. HIT PARADE leads a pack of runners who need to step it up here, though the Cox filly has her qualifications; she won a stakes at Fair Grounds in January before regressing in the Martha Washington last time out, in which she ceded more ground than usual and simply failed to fire.
Ninth Race
1. Buetane
2. Incredibolt
3. High Camp
BUETANE might not be quite as convincing as his female stablemate in the Virginia Oaks, but he remains the Baffert shipper in the field and commands respect; stretching out to 1 1/16 miles in the Grade 3 Southwest last time didn’t do wonders for the colt, who faded late to finish third by 3 3/4 lengths; his runner-up finish at seven furlongs in the Grade 2 San Vicente in January inspired far more confidence, but Baffert is staying the course and giving him even more distance in Virginia; the key here should be the class relief. INCREDIBOLT could go overlooked because of his 3-year-old debut in January, when the colt no-showed the Grade 3 Holy Bull; toss that poor effort off the layoff, and he seems far more appealing based on his juvenile form; the Grade 3 Street Sense winner has already handled 1 1/16 miles and generally seemed like a strong contender emerging from his winter break. HIGH CAMP is one of several outsiders in the field stepping up in class, though the lightly trained Walden colt looked better than most in his one-length maiden victory last month, for which he earned an 85 Beyer.
Tenth Race
1. Lure Him In
2. Maclean’s Rook
3. Steeze
LURE HIM IN did not regress before taking a short break in January, but has instead been short on luck in his last five starts; for a combination of reasons, the gelding has simply been unable to find the line while running strong races; much of the blame falls on tough competition at Gulfstream and Del Mar, which makes this trip to Colonial interesting off the bench; he seems to size up well in this group. MACLEAN’S ROOK was aiming for a stakes at this short Colonial meet, but Trombetta ultimately decided to take the right distance over the ideal purse; 1 1/16 miles should be perfect for this gelding, who has looked supremely strong since switching to dirt last fall; it’s possible that the Jennings took something out of him when he came up short in a winnable spot last month. STEEZE has won two of his last three starts in Florida for Riley Mott, but his best performance in that span was also his only defeat, when he came up a neck short with a 93 Beyer; there’s a lot to like about his last win, when he pressed the pace and dug in late to win a photo with an 82 Beyer; seems capable of stepping up as needed.he disappointing stint to this point. HARD STANCE will make his debut for Farrior, who doesn’t ship quite as many horses to Colonial as he does to Laurel; sire Hard Spun demands respect, and the trainer often sends his best out with intent; his recent works suggest he’s ready.
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