Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Monday, March 9 racing card at Fair Grounds, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 5.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Ayzee (5th race)
Fifth Race
Embed from Getty Images1. Ayzee
2. Miss Amber Q
3. Summers With Sonya
If you look at the string of dirt works, you’d have to think that AYZEE gets over the main track just fine, and if that’s the case, you’d also have to think her smart debut score in a turf sprint makes her the most likely winner, even stepping up from maidens to N1X and moving from dirt to grass. The trainer, obviously, is having himself a meet. MISS AMBER Q ran well in her debut defeat and even better clearing the maiden ranks in a full Delta field last out. She looks decently equipped to cope with this rail draw, and I see her taking another step forward at a very fair price. SUMMERS WITH SONYA difficult for me to read, but her only LA-bred start before this came in stakes competition.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other eight races on Monday’s Fair Grounds card.
First Race
1. Vamos Ya
2. Publicity
3. Express Line
Of course, connections are trying to get VAMOS YA claimed – didn’t happen on the crashing drop from straight maidens and allowance to $5K N2L claiming last time, but after he nearly won, it probably will here. Regardless of the drop and the fact they run him back at the same low level, this doesn’t strike me as a one-and-done, immediately-regress-after-a peak-race kind of horse. Think he merely found the right level and will hold his form. PUBLICITY is the steep class dropper in this race and could take a lot of beating if able to shake loose on the lead from his rail draw. I’m just not quite convinced he will make the lead, however, and not sure a lot of good would come from an off-the-pace, in-behind trip with a turf horse trying dirt. EXPRESS LINE on Feb. 5 rebounded after the layoff from three very, very poor races – and immediately regressed 20 days later. That sends him down to the lowest Fair Grounds class level he’s eligible for, and while the horse might sprint better than route, he can route well enough to factor with this kind of competition.
Second Race
1. Hesper
2. Classical Knight
3. Sarah’s Runner
HESPER just didn’t fire last out but has a bounce-back race in him while back down to $25K La-bred N2L claiming. And just as he takes a step forward, he lands in a pace-filled field that should flow the race in his favor. Lightly raced CLASSICAL KNIGHT has a hint of upside while being given a reasonable class drop (maiden win for a $20K tag) out of allowance races. But he’s probably not quick enough to lead and so far has demonstrated no ability/willingness to stalk the pace and pass horses. SARAH’S RUNNER doesn’t look like much of a win contender but certainly can clunk along and get into the vertical exotics, though one would hope for a little more bang than the morning-line price.
Third Race
1. Wickedly Royal
2. Clearly Bella
3. El Star
WICKEDLY ROYAL has broken well in three of four starts – if she breaks well here, she’s got a good chance to lead this LA-bred $5K N2L claimer all the way. And if she doesn’t, she’s probably losing as the favorite. CLEARLY BELLA floundered last out in a slow-paced route and could do better sprinting – but what happened to the positional pace she was showing last year? Did get bumped at start both races this form cycle – maybe still can keep up better. EL STAR taken here not because I expect her to finish third – her record shows it’s all or nothing. She’s taken here because if it’s she, not Wickedly Royal, who makes a clear lead, she becomes the wire threat.
Fourth Race
1. Dakota Cam
2. Lady Orient
3. Myiyla
DAKOTA CAM’s speed figure jumped 30 points when she switched from dirt last year to run in her only turf race so far. Found trouble, too, and closed for fourth behind winner who was good enough to make the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf gate. Solid dirt comeback run and can handle the doubled claiming price if, as I think, she’s meant to be a grass horse. LADY ORIENT fits the level but has struggled to stay a true turf route distance – fortunately for her, this race at 7 1/2 furlongs is not quite a true route. MYIYLA, who races for her first tag, also fast enough sprinting but questionable to stay two turns.
Sixth Race
1. Steppin Silver
2. Indian Cat
3. Gorilla Trek
STEPPIN SILVER ran so poorly last time that I’m inclined just to draw a line through the race. While he’s down to $15K from $30K, that’s not totally capitulating, and, clearly, a return to some of his better 2025 turf showings would make him a strong contender. INDIAN CAT, entered main track only, was second two back in a race at this level that was carded for dirt. He’d win if running back to that following the Delta dud last out. GORILLA TREK was building up and building up toward that peak breakthrough victory last out – hard to believe he runs right back to it.
Seventh Race
1. Mister Banderas
2. Asthecoldwindblows
3. Starry Eyed
MISTER BANDERAS went one-paced as the 1/2 favorite last out and will lose again if he runs that way. But these realistic connections hold firm at the La-bred N1X class and his races two, three, and four back would put Mr. B in the winner’s circle. ASTHECOLDWINDBLOWS has but one race, his most recent, that puts him within hailing distance of an in-form Mister Banderas. Not ruling out the chance he’s fundamentally improved this winter, and that this is his class level, and he could get a better trip than Banderas. STARRY EYED one among a few who figure to try for the front. What I said about ‘coldwind potentially hitting a new level already applies to Starry Eyed, who started the meet in a $12.5K N2L claimer before proving a stouter competitor than that.
Eighth Race
1. Love Getaway
2. Restless Mind
3. Paradise Ridge
LOVE GETAWAY ran best among the four horses who exit Race 1 on Feb. 7. I’m taking that performance as more representative than her debut three back, her other grass start, where she failed to come close to mustering the good pace she showed two back and even better speed from her most recent outing. RESTLESS MIND’s last-start trip looks worse on paper than on replay – not a great trip, but she failed to quicken with some room to operate in the homestretch. Winds up taken here for lack of better options and because she can handle dirt if it comes to that. PARADISE RIDGE took the lead from Love Getaway in the homestretch last month, but it was Love Getaway, who has more upside here, who was getting away from her again at the wire.
Ninth Race
1. Twirling Roses
2. My Liam
3. Badgeball
When you claim a horse like TWIRLING ROSES, as current connections did last out, you’d rather see a subpar performance than a peak one, right? Leaving room for first-off-claim improvement? I’m seeing that coming to pass in this instance. His best race is still plenty good, and this barn also is good off the claim. MY LIAM a claim-and-drop blowout score last time that was so much faster than his previous best, one wonders if he can come close to repeating it. BADGEBALL way, way down in class after a long layoff and possibly in a tough spot showing speed inside other pace.
Daily Racing Form is the most trusted source for horse racing news and information. Get an edge when you play the races with DRF.com.
For complete Derby Watch Top 20 rankings, visit DRF.com – Derby Watch analyzes top Kentucky Derby contenders each week. For odds, past performances and expert picks, visit DRF.com
DRF Road to the Derby Package Available Now! Save 37% on key handicapping essentials through Kentucky Derby day.
Get more Daily Racing Form horse racing picks on a daily basis on our VSiN Horse Racing page.
The post Horse Racing Picks Today at Fair Grounds for Monday, March 9 appeared first on VSiN.
Leave A Comment