Daily Racing Form expert handicapper and analyst Marcus Hersh handicaps the Friday, April 3 racing card at Keeneland, including his projected 1-2-3 finishers. His best bet of the day comes from Race 3.
Also, view FREE DRF Past Performances for today’s Race of the Day.
BEST BET: Camp Hale (3rd race)
Third Race
1. Camp Hale
2. Spiced Up
3. Donut God
While CAMP HALE showed talent from the start, losing to a number of talented horses, he needed six tries to win a maiden race – and then made it two straight, ending his 3yo season with a CD N1X score. You look at the pedigree, you look at the good dirt form, and you wonder why connections move him to turf for his 4yo debut. Then you look at Palm Meadows video of his grass workouts – and you see why. Moves like a dream on the lawn. Looking for a big effort in a tough race. SPICED UP won the Mahoney at Saratoga last summer like a good horse – and has not come close to that race since. Can give him a pass for not liking Kentucky Downs, and perhaps just over the top by the time he got to his 2yo finale. The Jan. 4 race – that was just a dud. Blinkers on, plenty of Payson work, rebound candidate. In the lone turf work video we have for DONUT GOD, they broke him off a couple lengths behind a workmate, and unlike Camp Hale, who does whatever the rider beezez, DG just wanted to get it on. Not that he didn’t work all right, because he did, and he has talent, but I can see him getting too much of a strong pace.
Here are Marcus’ thoughts on the other ninth races on Friday’s Keeneland card.
First Race
1. Waggley
2. Suspicions
3. Joe Joe Dude
Do you think trainer W Ward has slowed down since his heyday with 2yo first-timers in April at KEE? No, he has not. Ward firsters won five of the seven such races he entered last year, and over the past two Aprils, Ward has 11 winners from the 18 early 2yo races KEE held. WAGGLEY, from the first crop of Life Is Good, has gotten in three KEE drills. No video of the most recent half-mile but yes video for the pair of 3fs. Looks physically mature – and fast. Went March 19 outside a Golden Pal colt named Shining Moment, who also looks like he can run. Not ruling out the Ward-owned SUSPICIONS, either. Thought he was just all right on the March 22 work video, but when given his head to some extent in the final furlong of his March 29 drill, the horse really popped. Trainer B Colebrook ran three 2yo firsters last April, getting a third with one of them and a good win from the very talented Percy’s Bar. He has JOE JOE DUDE, who has looked all right in his works, though to this relatively untrained eye not quite as sharp as the Wards.
Embed from Getty ImagesSecond Race
1. Miss Call
2. N Z Holly
3. Trapped
What we see on paper with MISS CALL – a solid allowance horse who was stakes-placed last year – is what we see from recent workout video. She’s going good, holding her own with horses better than this competition. I think she’s going to be too much for these, albeit as likely favorite. No idea how N Z HOLLY went from a front-running maiden win two back to a deep closing third in her most recent start. Didn’t break terribly but came completely off the bridle going into the turn, but after it looked like she’d just run around there and finish last, she sparked to life, rallying for third. I don’t see her as high as 12-1 under Prat but do see her giving the top pick a run. TRAPPED only beat a short field of $30K maidens last out at FG, but it was the way she did it making just her second start that suggests she’s got room to grow.
Fourth Race
1. Bodacious Bay
2. Lady Diversity
3. Hypnotica
Nine first-time starters in this older-filly MSW sprint, and I could see eight of them winning. So — good luck. BODACIOUS BAY is 12-1 on the line and presumably will be no lower than something like 6, even if she gets bet. Trainer R Brisset kept her at KEE all winter and the work pattern suggests she’s ready. Looks like a robust filly with some speed in her work videos – professional approach, runs very straight in the stretch. Very much held her own going with G2 Beaumont starter Kingsolver on March 20. Dam a graded-stakes placed sprinter, and sibling Royal Spa a G2 winner for Brisset. Speaking of working with more established and capable horses, LADY DIVERSITY on March 20 went inside stakes placed Paige Turner and more than held her own. There’s a lot to her – and a lot to her stride, which is very high, far from efficient. 2yo sale purchase taken a long time to make races. Surely ready for whatever she can show first out. Trainer C Brown has run but one 3yo KEE first-timer in a dirt sprint MSW since spring of 2022. That year, he ran five and came away with four seconds. Debuting HYPNOTICA did all her work at Payson – one work video there looked solid enough.
Fifth Race
1. Arctic Beast
2. Carson Street
3. Knock It Off
Unsure how ARCTIC BEAST, as fast as he is, didn’t make the lead stretched to the two-turn mile at Remington. He’s not a two-turn horse, in any case, and that’s the only blemish on his record. He’s been crushing NY-bred competition, doing so without seeming to get into his highest gear, either. Was quite taken with the one work video we have, the half-mile on March 30, where he was only nudged out of a moderate tempo to finish up with great energy. And that was just finishing touches – his major work came on March 23. Think he can rate enough to avoid a compromising duel. CARSON STREET a good second in his most recent one-turn race, a CD mile last fall, behind in Incredibolt, who won the Street Sense in his next start and after a flop in the Holy Bull was much the best in the VA Derby. He’s not fast enough to keep up with the real speed here, and that might be a good thing. Like him to come with one run. KNOCK IT OFF is good, no doubt, and might be very, very good. But at a short price and with an inside draw as a major pace player, I’ll try to beat him this time.
Sixth Race
1. Noble Confessor
2. Without
3. Sumood
NOBLE CONFESSOR stuck way out on the AE list but will land in a very, very winnable spot should he manage to draw in. Hooked and cooked last out at GP, and if he runs back to his last two starts of 2025, he’ll beat this seemingly modest group. WITHOUT looks better on paper than on replay, at least to me, and I was trying to avoid him here at what figures to be a short price. Back in France, he seemed like a problem horse, declared a non-starter in several races because of gate issues. In his US debut, he had to wait just a bit before finally getting through on the fence as the potentially good C Brown-trained Dirand came busting down the outside. His Beyer went up in the Mac Diarmida, but I found his performance somewhat lackluster. Solid enough run in his last start in France. Maybe cutting back a quarter mile in trip helps. SUMOOD’s overdue maiden win last out came with the addition of blinkers – coincidentally or not. He’s capable of more on turf than he showed in his lone try last fall at KEE, but can he see out 1 1/8 miles?
Seventh Race
1. Just Bluffing
2. A Fine Chardonnay
3. Sneaky Good
I don’t think JUST BLUFFING, based on her smooth outside stalking debut win, got the right trip last out when hooked on the lead through a solid pace while racing older horses. The 4yo who beat her ran an especially strong race by her standards, and while JB’s speed figure stayed about the same, I thought she was better in the maiden win, which came at the expense of Goodall, 2-2 since with a 94 Beyer winning the Purple Martin at OP. Just one official work between starts for Just Bluffing, but this barn often operates like that. The work looked excellent. JB didn’t even really get serious until she’d gone past the wire and was halfway around the turn. The instant acceleration she showed when asked for run was pretty great, and she kept on that way for the better part of a quarter mile. A FINE CHARDONNAY is set to run the best race of her life, and her best race at 2, the last-to first, going-away KEE allowance run, was pretty damned good. She’s a smallish filly, though, and that effort might’ve zapped her – wasn’t the same horse next out at CD. Seemingly perfect comeback start at Gulfstream. Well beaten third but got into a fast heat and was gaining through the final half-furlong. SNEAKY GOOD looks capable but obvious, a contender who will be overbet.
Eighth Race
1. Remember Mamba
2. Noble Dynasty
3. Vasy
Noticed that the other DRF selectors don’t have REMEMBER MAMBA in their top 3, which makes me wonder if my initial supposition that this horse would go off closer to 8-5 than 7-2 was off base. I guess the Beyers aren’t there. He beat 11 in the KEE debut last fall, but that wasn’t the strongest field. Only six others in the FG N1X – I think the third-place horse there, who had a terrible trip in the Black Gold, is pretty good. Whatever though – RM has beaten all those horses with ease. He’s got enough pace to keep up, a very nice kick, and has been aimed at this spot throughout the winter. Very encouraging recent dirt work with Blue Grass starter Reagan’s Honor. Even while racing competitive as a 2yo NOBLE DYNASTY looked to me (mentally and physically – though there’s plenty of him) like a horse who wouldn’t blossom until he was 3. He’s turned in some encouraging Payson dirt work this winter, going well inside graded-stakes winning dirt filly Ragtime on 3/8. Wonder if he might not need 9f or a little farther to show his best. On the other end of the distance range, VASY is bred like a miler at most, but after three so-so sprint tries found his calling when stretched to two turns two back. Not only did he win the Col Liam last out, he was clearly best there, slicing through a tight spot to win more dominantly than the bare margin of victory.
Ninth Race
1. Zany
2. Percy’s Bar
3. Star Actress
There’s more to this Ashland than I initially thought. Percy’s Bar was one of the better 2yo fillies last year. French Friction has only run short but has a router’s pedigree and has looked awesome in her races – no real gallops out to hint at route ability because she’d already been shut down before the wire. Omaha Bay has ability, Star Actress plenty of promise. All that and I’m not going against likely odds-on favorite ZANY, who could be a special filly. Not going there yet, but her appeal goes well beyond the flashy 3-3 record, the last two in the Demoiselle and the Suncoast. And while the Suncoast is just a listed race at Tampa, its runner up came back with a sharp score in the G2 FG Oaks. Granted, Life of Joy probably improved from TAM to FG, but Zany just toyed with her there, winning as she pleased despite jinking toward the rail past the eighth pole. She works like she races, and the more distance she gets, the better. PERCY’S BAR was the best horse when DQ’d from the G1 Alcibiades and had seriously compromising trouble in the BC Juvenile Fillies. Work video this winter in spring ranges from good to very, very good. She’s likely coming back ready but has a potentially tricky inside draw and might be running into a monster. Almost want to say I liked STAR ACTRESS’s debut loss more than he second out win. Looked far from a finished product while showing real route ability both races. Sister to BC winner Just F Y I has mixed some strong-looking works with some lesser drills.
Tenth Race
1. Democracy Defender
2. Lemon’s Law
3. Supercharger
Amazing that the official chart – the historical record — of DEMOCRACY DEFENDER’s last start at Tampa leaves out nearly all the compromising trouble he found. There’s talk about the bumpy start, which put him much farther back early than might have been the case. Got over to the fence before first turn, crept up the rail down the backstretch, and about the 9/16 pole really started to move up into a strong position – before he got stopped and steadied way back into the field going to the half-mile pole. Had to wait some more on the turn, spun wide while the C Brown-trained first-time starter got a clean trip and first run. A good race, and that’s not even getting to his debut. There, he was moved mid-backstretch, going hard and very wide without cover all the way up to contest the pace. Beaten a narrow margin by Vasy, who came back to annex the Colonel Liam at Gulfstream. Don’t like the wide post – do like Irad up. LEMON’S LAW got impossibly blocked when he appeared to have run in his KEE debut last fall, and the next two trips, while better, were far from ideal. Gulfstream comeback run has the feel of a pure prep for the KEE return. SUPERCHARGER ran in his debut, the CD turf race, like a horse who needed a race, came flying in the TP Tapeta try. Was back to work 2/7 following that 1/17 race, which tells us what? Probably that they awaited this spot.
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